Joe Rogan Experience #2500 - Scott Horton
In a Nutshell
Scott Horton details U.S. foreign policy disasters driven by neocons, the Israel lobby, and empire-building—from the Wolfowitz Doctrine's seven-country regime-change plan (Iraq, Syria, etc.), broken NATO promises provoking Russia-Ukraine war, to sabotaging Nord Stream and failed Iran strikes exposing bankrupt U.S. bases. Interventions empower enemies (Iran via Iraq invasion, Russia-China ties), cost trillions, fuel blowback terrorism, and ignore realities like Iran's IAEA-monitored civilian nuclear program versus Israel's undeclared arsenal. Trump should declare victory, abandon Middle East bases, and end endless wars to avoid escalation, echoing antiwar critiques from Pat Buchanan to Ron Paul.
These notes were generated by AI and may contain inaccuracies.
Joe Rogan adjusts microphone due to right ear pain from years of use, uses one ear on, one ear off. Mentions volume adjuster. Thanks Scott Horton for professorial pipe gift. Praises Mezer (likely Jamie Mezer) as funny, giant, conspiracy rapid-fire guy.
Dave Smith recommends Scott Horton highly. Horton wishes more current events but notes Vietnam-like old stuff. Horton seen arguing on TV, including Piers Morgan chaos, which he doesn't enjoy. Recently lost Oxford debate on Ukraine (audience voted yes via yes/no doors, same pro-Ukraine crowd). Invited himself on Piers Morgan Uncensored for interview but got debate format instead.
Piers Morgan mastered Jerry Springer-style politics for engagement. Antiwar.com voices now appear on his show, big change from past separation of conversations. Massive viewership via clips on X/YouTube trumps traditional TV. TV dying: commercials every 7 minutes, no depth, executives dictate, edit controversial content affecting sponsors/government/narrative.
Joe started podcasting as radio archives; radio meant legitimacy (hired, not basement). Clung to KPFK LA radio show until last year. Podcasting changed market entirely. KPFK: high thousands listeners, 90.7 FM, 115,000 watts (most powerful FM west of Mississippi), inconsistent programming (Latina lesbians, crystal worship, news, union organizing), left of dial like KUT, no commercials, donation-funded.
Never paid, but ran 14-15 years. Covered Palestine weekly during Russia-Ukraine book writing, interviewed libertarian institute/antiwar.com guests. Some response to leaving. Promoted 6,200+ interviews since 2003 archives.
In 90s, believed new world order conspiracy: US foreign policy builds one-world UN government dominating US (John Birch Society idea). Held through Clinton, early W. Bush. Iraq War disproved it: not building UN Security Council, but National Security Council, Cheney/neocons separate policy. HW Bush's NWO meant American empire era unopposed, DC as world government (failing since).
Too many sacrifice power/wealth. Nightmare: totalitarian one-world gov with nuke/police monopoly. No real push; no world army/police, just US coercion. WHO pandemic push fails without enforcement. HW Bush/Biden's "liberal rules-based order" = do what America says, neo-colonialism (overthrow via money/CIA/bombs).
Post-Gulf War 1991, Paul Wolfowitz (Deputy SecDef Policy), Scooter Libby, Zalmay Khalilzad wrote Defense Planning Guidance: US dominant on every continent, no rival nation/alliance balancing us, permanent power order. Expanding Middle East/Eastern Europe/Asia footprints. "If not us, worse power" theory, but US debt unaffordable.
Wolfowitz looks the part. Leaked to NYT, scandal; rewritten to include friends from international institutions.
Book They Knew They Were Right by Jacob Heilbrunn on neocons. Andrew Cockburn: neocons = Israel lobby + military-industrial complex cross; fighter salesmen needed eggheads for justification, funded think tanks for Israel/US hegemony consensus.
Two statements: one on Democracy Now with Amy Goodman. Retired Gen. Wesley Clark (ex-NATO Supreme Allied Commander Europe, Kosovo War) told by officer: post-9/11 plan for Iraq war, then memo from SecDef office (Rumsfeld) for seven countries in five years: Iraq, Syria, Lebanon, Libya, Somalia, Sudan, Iran (all happened except Iran).
Rumsfeld (SecDef, not neocon); deputies: Paul Wolfowitz, Stephen Cambone (intelligence), Douglas Feith (policy, under him Abram Shulsky, Bill Luti, Michael Rubin). Network: Scooter Libby, David Wurmser (State/Defense/VP office); VP office John Hannah; NSC Zalmay Khalilzad, Elliot Abrams; Robert Joseph, Stephen Hadley, Eric Edelman. Founded Project for the New American Century (PNAC) in 1990s. Doctrine: no Middle East regime supporting terrorism (broad: Abu Nidal in Iraq pre-war, Mujahedin-e Khalq).
Iranian communist cultists, left Iran, worked for Saddam, later for US/Israel (base in Albania). Not al-Qaeda; pretext to check regime list, often Israel's enemies.
Clean Break (1996) by David Wurmser/Richard Perle for Netanyahu: ditch Oslo, peace via strength/dominance, devour remaining Palestine (22% West Bank/Gaza). Arc of power: Iran-Syria-Hezbollah (Shiite militia south Lebanon). Saddam Sunni roadblock.
Neocons: post-Saddam, Jordan/Turkey dominant; Shiites obey Hashemite king (Jordan cousin) or Ahmed Chalabi (Iraqi National Congress exile). New Iraq forces Hezbollah to befriend Israel, build Haifa oil pipeline. Stupid/arrogant: empowered Iran instead.
Wurmser Documents
scottorton.org: Clean Break: A New Strategy for Securing the Realm; Coping with Crumbling States (Wurmser, Perle forward); Tyranny's Ally (Wurmser book, Perle forward: US ally of Saddam for not regime-changing). Wurmser recent podcast: Shiites obey prophet-blood claimants like Hashemites (false: Sunnis, British puppets, no Iraq pull; no magic control). Dave Smith: why not just call Jordan king to order Ayatollah/Hezbollah?
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Iraq war cost at least $5-7 trillion on Iraq alone, probably $10 trillion for the whole terror war. Where did that money go? Defense contractors were deeply enriched. Defense contractors involved in lobbyists, policy influence, certain actions. Push a harebrained scheme: stupidity or don't care about excuse, just get the party started with missiles, new planes.
Netanyahu convinced Trump it would be easy, but it wasn't. Iraq was supposed to be easy: Marines took Baghdad, Third Infantry Division and Marines regime-changed in five weeks. Then occupation devolved into civil war.
Plan A: it'll be fine. Plan B: make money, push on, let both sides fight and weaken each other.
Senator Joe Biden insisted break Iraq into three, enforce ethnic/sectarian cleansing, create three mini-states. Anthony Blinken was his right-hand man. Israel-first types.
Before Clean Break: Yinon Plan from 1981 by Israeli strategist. Premise: Soviet Union certain to conquer planet, one world communism from Moscow, Israel alone, so smash every nearby Arab state into warring tribal pieces to weaken relative to Israel. Soviet Union gone by end of decade.
In Coping with Crumbling States: states artificial, without Ba'athist construct in Iraq/Syria, smaller tribal-based units. If no compliant sock puppet, make them fight and destroy countries. Happened in Iraq and Syria under Obama: if can't get al-Qaeda to sack Damascus and remove Assad, destroy the place.
Desert Storm easy, minimal American lives lost, got cocky. Like Venezuela easy, then bad news for Iran: put eyeballs on them, put bomb on, killed them. Didn't help.
Israel kills negotiators: happened couple times early war. Trump: can't say who we're negotiating with because they'll get killed (meaning Israelis, not Iranian hardliners).
Ukraine faded from consciousness, now focus on Iran. Ukraine fascinating: one of few wars with leftist support, right after masks/syringes down, then Ukraine flags. Mezer joke: invading Ukraine bad, but wasn't cure for COVID.
Liberals switched night to day. Putin stand-in for Trump. Russians conservative Christian force, anti-right. Russia larger, invaded, aggressor, easy narrative for plucky defenders.
At Oxford debate: house would rather go to war with Russia than lose Ukraine. Absurd: Russia has 7,000 H-bombs. Audience (progressive college kids) staunchly pro-Ukraine, willing to support Britain war over Donbas. Failed to frame argument well, thought H-bomb joke enough: Haven't you seen Threads? (British Day After with Margaret Thatcher nuked).
US overthrew Ukraine government twice in 10 years: Orange Revolution 2004, 2014. George Soros bragged influencing vote toward pro-Russian candidate in 1994 (interview with Connie Bruck in New Yorker).
Russia-Ukraine long difficult history. Wanted out end of Soviet Union. George Bush Sr. intended USSR stay together, Russia hang on to Belarus, Ukraine, some Stans. Russians under Boris Yeltsin overthrew it after failed hardline commie coup August 1991; Yeltsin saved day then destroyed USSR, kicked Gorbachev out.
Contest for dominance. Wolfowitz Doctrine, Rebuilding America's Defenses (PNAC 1998), Defense Planning Guidance 1992: expand NATO into Eastern Europe. Debate include Russia or not; opposed altogether or bring Russians in, but didn't. Expanded to Russia's border threateningly.
Alternatives: Partnership for Peace, OSCE (Organization for Security and Cooperation in Europe). James Baker (H.W. Bush), Warren Christopher (Clinton) promised make NATO political, OSCE/PfP security org including Russians.
Ukraine Russia's Canada, Kazakhstan Mexico.
Promise not written, but true: H.W. Bush to Gorbachev Malta December 1989: let Eastern European Warsaw Pact states go, promise not take advantage. Covered in book Provoke. Overkill research: meetings over months, Americans/British/Germans affirmed no integrate Poland/Hungary/Czechoslovakia. Hans-Dietrich Genscher (German FM), Helmut Kohl (chancellor), Margaret Thatcher/John Major (UK PMs), Douglas Hurd (UK FM), Francois Mitterrand (French pres), George Bush.
Clinton years: Strobe Talbott originally opposed, became proponent.
Opposition always one reason: unnecessary provocation against Russians, our friends who overthrew communists. Integrate into West. George Kennan (containment policy, ambassador Moscow): 1998 NYT interview Thomas Friedman, most respected Russia expert: expand NATO to Russia border, get negative reaction, then say "Aha, that's how Russians are, need NATO more."
Putin declaration: tried independence, Ukraine became US colony, total control, so intervene, control Donbas/southeast coast at least.
Victoria Nuland (Robert Kagan wife, neocon, Cheney office): testified US infiltration every level Ukrainian govt, police, military, judicial, provinces.
Wikileaks: US knows Ukraine deeply divided on NATO vs. Russia. Push with tens of millions propaganda, support candidates.
Book: How Washington Provoked... new Cold War with Russia, catastrophe Ukraine. Ham-handed policy Bush Sr. to Biden.
No background in media: Russia attacked Ukraine (horrible), no US coups/context. Or say started with Russia seize Crimea (reaction to 2014 Revolution of Dignity coup).
Control Ukraine connected to resources: immense minerals, natural gas, trillions. Connects Burisma to Biden admin. Not crucial for US people, but special interests: Chevron oil, Cargill/Archer Daniels Midland/Monsanto grains. Negligible GDP benefit, not worth war.
Keep Russia weak/off-balance. RAND Corp 2019 study Extending Russia (overextend): provoke small trouble many places bog down expenses/commitments.
- Disrupt Nord Stream pipeline (sanctions)
- Overthrow Belarus govt (tried 2020, before 2005/2001 failed; could lead nuclear war)
- Increase weapons jihadists Syria
- Overthrow Kazakhstan
- Increase support Ukrainian military
Disclaimers: terrible risks (Russia invade Belarus with nukes; jihadists sack Damascus al-Qaeda govt; full-scale Russia invasion Ukraine: expense, humiliation, chaos).
Biden ran things like got memo without disclaimers.
Biden ran things as if he got the memo without disclaimers, doing all those things. In Trump's last year, they tried to overthrow Belarus, independent of Biden's wishes. They messed around in Kazakhstan in January 2022, right on the eve of war. Instead of pressuring Washington to avoid war with Putin threatening to invade Ukraine, while building up forces, they supported an armed insurrection in Kazakhstan, Russia's most important Stan on its southern border. This shows their strategy: if they can't overthrow Putin, weaken him, hem him in, surround him, agitate him, force commitments. This is why the war has gone on for four years. America could tell Kiev under Biden or Trump to compromise, as they've lost all of Luhansk, most of Donetsk, at least half of Zaporizhzhia and Kherson. Instead, they say they want to inflict a strategic defeat on Russia.
Politicians and pundits say, "We're getting such a good bang for our buck in Ukraine." Russian soldiers die, but no American soldiers. Give money, they fight. They ignore hundreds of thousands of Ukrainian soldiers killed, horrifically maimed, country destroyed, population fleeing as refugees never to return, total destabilization. Fox News and Democrats say we're killing Russians, sending them home in body bags and coffins, even generals, none of our guys dying—as though Ukrainians don't matter. Joe Biden repeated this: inflicting costs on Russians. Like South Park's underpants gnomes: steal underpants, ?, ?, profit—no plan worked out.
Does this weaken Putin's regime or strengthen it? Increase American power or show us as paper tiger? Pushed Russia towards China and Eurasia. Biden deliberately prevents Russia from European civilization, emphasizes turn to the east—terrible mistake, part of longer-term cold war with China. Options: make friends with Russia, pull from China (Trump preference), or lure Russia into Eastern Europe, bog down so no use to China, inflict strategic defeat so less useful to China. Biden chose the latter, stupid and didn't work, strengthened Russia-China relationship. Russians opened pipeline to China 12 years ago, keep adding; sell all hydrocarbons, China burns them. Don't need Europe; Biden solidified economic break unnecessarily without hurting Russia. Blowing up Nord Stream disconnected natural gas to Europe.
Specifically to solidify break between Germany and Russia. Angela Merkel had Eurasian home project: balance American and Russian interests in Europe. Closed nuclear plants for green movement, import clean-burning CH4 from Russians. Worst for Americans: alliance of German manufacturing power and Russian raw materials, potential military strength dominating Eastern Europe. British and American fear. In Austin, Stratfor (Strategic Forecasting), corporate CIA run by George Friedman, does pseudo-CIA briefings for corporations. Emails leaked on WikiLeaks, close with color-coded revolutionaries. Friedman opposed Iraq War 2003, realist analyst. Gave speech: primordial fear of American imperial planners is German-Russian alliance; prevent at all costs.
Don't know who blew up pipeline, but US supported. Seymour Hersh says American military guys from Pensacola, Florida—divers who disable sea mines. Cover story about yacht, six versions: who rented, used, robots or divers—to confuse. Biden and Victoria Nuland said they won't let it proceed, will do whatever it takes. Gas poured into ocean, eventually capped—biggest methane release ever, centuries of cow burps. Liberals should be offended.
Like recent Iran protests over gas ration cuts in ethnically divided country. Big protest, then armed gangs killing cops, seizing police stations and airports. Russians invaded at government's request, crushed it. Anthony Blinken said Russians never leave; next day they did. Who were insurrectionists? Presumably CIA and Turks. To spread Russia thin, spend money, cause problems everywhere. Friedman says hit Iran, Russia, China when doing better—always effing with them, short-sighted, high time preference.
Strobe Talbott, Clinton's guy, initially opposed NATO expansion, later championed it amid 2018 Ukraine civil war (US supporting Kiev, Russia rebels). Keith Gessen interviewed him in New York Times: NATO expansion blew up. Talbott: when in power, pursue national interests or lose power. Wanted Lockheed dollars, Polish votes in Illinois swing state for 1996 Clinton reelection. Narrow interests over higher wiser conception: scheduling military conflict with Russia for century? Nothing more important than America getting along with post-communist Russians—not Stalinism.
Critics say libertarian utopianism: if not mess with Russians, keep stretched, they'll amass power, retake Soviet Union lands. But America never leaves alone, no controlled experiment; all reactions, like terrorism after interventions. If H.W. Bush came home post-Cold War per Pat Buchanan, Germans reunify, join EU army with British, French, Poles; they police region, partner with republican Russians. Poland wanted NATO, but why obligated 6,000 miles away? Europeans—Western Christian capitalist democracies—solve themselves. Balkans war: US-Germany contest worsened it.
No justification post-Cold War. Spin globe: European powers friends; Africa none except friendly Egypt; India power in 100 years; China rising but friends since Nixon 1970s even as communists. Chinese infiltration (e.g., Arcadia mayor communist spy): FBI counterintelligence failure. Worst case, China takes Taiwan—no invasion of Korea, Japan, Australia; overextended with 14-15 neighbors. Ambition: Belt and Road highway, fiber optics from Shanghai to Lisbon—requires deals through Tajikistan etc., not intimidation. Build via briefcases, government-backed businesses buying resources. Xi Jinping not imitating US presidents blowing brains out conquering planet. China not invading like US.
Move microchip factories from Taiwan to Austin; AMD here 30-35+ years. Taiwan advanced at chip production; Samsung tried Texas plant, poor yields despite money. Complex tolerances; not simple to crank out. Chip manufacturing among most complex challenges.
China could potentially replicate Taiwan's chip manufacturing with enough resources and time, possibly by stealing Taiwan's experts. Samsung's chip factory in the US has never been fully open and is not done yet. Joe Rogan worked as a rent-a-cop at fancy chip fabrication factories like AMD, Intel, or Samsung 25 years ago, doing homework in parking garages.
Why Taiwan Dominates Chip Manufacturing
Taiwan built a specialized ecosystem around contract chip fabrication foundries, starting in the 1980s with a focus on precision manufacturing for others rather than consumer tech brands. TSMC, founded in 1987, is the world's leading contract chip manufacturer, producing over half of the world's advanced semiconductors and more than 90% of the most cutting-edge nodes. Advanced fabs cost tens of billions of dollars and must run near full capacity to be profitable, allowing only a few players to compete, with Taiwan pulling ahead as others dropped out.
No customers is a huge problem for new fabs, causing delays. Companies like Samsung, Dell, AMD, and IBM exist in the US, but the enormous capital investment and constant operation requirements make it far from simple, unlike car manufacturing. Everyone needing chips is already sourcing from Taiwan via contracts. If Beijing threatens Taiwan militarily and people prefer not to live under Communist rule, there's incentive to move to Texas, but it requires insane capital and commitment. Samsung faces issues with yields and hasn't moved to mass production of 2-nanometer chips despite trials.
Pentagon budget is a trillion and a half this year. Lesson from Iran war: US military empire in the Middle East is bankrupt. H-bombs deter attacks, but the empire is a hollow bluff—Iran called it and won. US bases evacuated. Satellite photos were covered up initially, but New York Times and CNN reported Iranian strikes on 18 bases from Irbil in northern Iraq to Muscat in Oman, destroying radar stations, pitting runways, hitting refueling tankers and AWACS radar planes, taking out huge percentages of overlapping missile defense radars, leaving allies in Saudi Arabia, Qatar, UAE, Bahrain wide open. Fifth Fleet at Bahrain destroyed and offline. Qataris made a deal with Iran to stop hits and promised no US sorties from their main air base, CENTCOM headquarters.
As Justin Logan from Cato Institute said, what good is a military base you can't fight from? Meme: Iran put their country close to US bases. Bases were tripwires making US personnel hostages to prevent war—attacking Iran would risk all bases.
Why Bases Were Poorly Defended
Political decisions by brass, not admitting need for fortifications, office politics, underestimation. In January 2007, Joint Chiefs told Bush they could do Iraq surge but not Iran due to lack of escalation dominance—Pentagon term for controlling every conflict stage. Iran has short/medium-range missile force US can't fully defend against despite Patriots; volume overwhelms. US had 100,000+ in Iraq, 50,000 in Afghanistan, tens of thousands in Kuwait, Saudi Arabia, Qatar, Bahrain, UAE, Oman. Strait of Hormuz at risk. Scott Horton wrote in 2005 at antiwar.com: Iran can close Strait, drive oil to $200/barrel.
Experts said US can start war with Iran but not finish it. Regime change futile: kill Ayatollah, they appoint new one; kill council, new council forms. No good land invasion route—two massive mountain ranges. Neocons daydreamed of arming civilians, Kurds, Balochis (like Jundallah, backed by Obama admin and Israel—bin Laden-style head-choppers like al-Qaeda/ISIS). John Bolton suggested arming Balochis. No reason to believe people would rise for pro-US government.
Iran hit trillion dollars in economic targets: refineries, chemical plants, oil tankers near Kuwait. US conventional military empire bankrupt—Trump blew bluff. Leaders in Bahrain, Qatar, UAE, Saudi can't rely on US defense anymore.
US used up two-thirds of Patriot missiles. Iranians retain 70-75% of missiles and launchers per government officials to New York Times/Washington Post. They dug out buried missiles, refurbished, finished assembly line ones. Factories buried deep underground, dispersed. Preparing for decades. Hit bases nonfunctional long-term.
New York Times (6 weeks old), CNN, NBC profiles. Religious fundamentalists in military briefed that Iran war brings Armageddon, Trump anointed by Jesus—commander told NCOs with giant smile. Mikey Weinstein (Military Religious Freedom Foundation, ex-officer) fights this; highest Air Force ranks believe apocalypse good, in charge of nukes per divine plan.
"He urged us to tell our troops that this was all part of God's divine plan. And he specifically referenced numerous citations out of the book of Revelations referring to Armageddon and the imminent return of Jesus Christ."
Justified Iraq similarly—Protestant ministers said Middle East wars around 2000s lead to rapture. Evangelical support for Israel/foreign policy crashed as Left Behind predictions failed.
Netanyahu used simple checkers: Iran's civilian nuclear program is cover for weapons; they won't give up enrichment, Trump said no nukes, so attack. Like Obama's Syria red line. Flattery: Trump greater than Lincoln/Washington, world-historical, like FDR invading Germany in 1935. Trump ill-informed, believes bombing ends program. Iran clear: enrich for peaceful purposes, suffer strikes, reserve right.
Netanyahu convinced Trump Strait of Hormuz safe post-strike, regime falls after killing Ayatollah.
If Iran gets nukes, regional states will proliferate.
Daryl Cooper (Scott's show partner, Joe Rogan's friend) misrepresented. Fear and Loathing in the New Jerusalem balanced, not anti-Semitic. Churchill provocative as villain for embargoes starving Germany, forcing Hitler's hand—not excusing Hitler, saying Churchill bad too, wanted Soviet attack post-WWII. Joked with Jewish friend. Camps point: even German apologist admits responsibility for starving millions—not diminishing Holocaust, segue to Gaza (not country, Indian reservation—conquered, besieged, Israel responsible for feeding).
After conquering and besieging a population, the occupier is responsible for feeding them to prevent starvation. This was Churchill's point. The discussion was half about Churchill and half about the war in the East, sometimes misinterpreted. People dishonestly pretend he didn't repeatedly explain and clarify his statements on record.
Video clips strip context from conversations, where someone might be steelmanning, being provocative, or similar. WWII is beyond debate—no room for discussing truths or motivations. No event in history has a completely objective 100% accurate representation of why wars start, factors, or motivations. Smedley Butler's 1933 "War is a Racket" highlighted this: as a major general, he realized he made the world safer for bankers and interests controlling resources.
Discussions of WWII, Nazis, or Holocaust trigger "anti-Semitic" labels. WWII is part of civic religion, with FDR, Harry Truman, and Dwight Eisenhower as founding fathers of the American empire, the "greatest generation." Personal connections exist, like Scott Horton's grandfather in the war and great uncle death-marched by Japanese. Bill Kristol calls it building national greatness through big projects.
Bankers tried to recruit Smedley Butler for a military coup to overthrow FDR. He refused, testified on Capitol Hill with documents. These were worse than FDR—wrong faction.
Pat Buchanan's book quotes only top English historians from Cambridge and Oxford, avoiding German views. Neville Chamberlain and Winston Churchill fumbled into a worse war than hoped, handing Poland to communists. It's a cold, non-religious take. Comparing W. Bush to Churchill suggests Churchill was the W. Bush of the 20th century. Churchill as Dick Cheney?
Cheney had no pulse for a while, gave no-bid contracts to Halliburton (his former CEO company) for billions fixing U.S.-destroyed infrastructure. Lives long despite young healthy people dying of heart attacks post-COVID. Shot friend in face during canned hunt (releasing birds from cage to shoot). Friend apologized: "I'm very sorry if this reflected negatively on the vice president." No lawsuit. Birdshot spreads; at 70 feet, friend got clipped with pellets.
Cheney ran things; Bush asked where he was during bunker hideout. War pretended ongoing threat when none existed. Comedy bit: elites test public dumbness by making a dumb guy president (Bush). Justified Iraq War, he won re-election. Someone thought: "We can go dumber." Like Kurt Vonnegut's "Harrison Bergeron" with buffoon president (Tim Curry in film), real power behind throne. "Dr. Strangelove" shows similar absurdity; Pete Hegseth discussions echo it, with commander pushing Armageddon.
Politicians may believe their own lies, like Trump possibly convinced Iraq had WMDs. Iran's protester executions are wild, but Iran dominates region conventionally (thanks to W. Bush giving them Baghdad). Nukes would cancel their advantage as GCC states (Saudi, Qatar, Bahrain, UAE) get their own. No one could touch Iran then, like Ukraine NATO argument.
Iran's non-proliferation treaty member with IAEA-safeguarded civilian program tracking uranium from mine to tomb at Fordow and Natanz. Robust oversight until last June. Missiles separate: 4,000 km range to Diego Garcia known; prior range limit political, lifted publicly last October post-June war.
No ICBM capability to U.S., but intermediate-range hits Israel. China cooperation possible (Bill Clinton enabled via 1996 scandal: Chinese money, Riyadi tied to intel, John Wong at Commerce rubber-stamped Hughes Aircraft/Loral three-stage rocket tech transfers).
Better to normalize with Iran. IAEA proved no diversion. Israel pushed U.S. to bomb under Bush, Obama, Trump, Biden. U.S. refused but warned against breakout. Iran denied nukes, implied latent deterrent (mastered fuel cycle since 2006, revolver in pocket, bullets in other). Netanyahu convinced Trump: any civilian program equals nukes.
Iran stated capability but not building: proof they're not, despite knowing how since 2006. June strikes set back program (Natanz/Fordow elevators/air shafts hit; facilities frozen per November open-source and recent classified reports).
Yellowcake (refined uranium ore) to uranium hexafluoride gas into centrifuge cascades spinning out U-238 from U-235. 3.6% for electricity, 20% for medical isotopes, 90%+ weapons-grade. Convert back to metal for rods or warheads.
JCPOA (2015): shut 2/3 Natanz centrifuges, Fordow to research, stockpile to Russia for fuel rods (1-year breakout to one bomb uranium). Plutonium route blocked: concrete in Arak heavy-water reactor; Bushehr light-water harder, inspected.
Like ATF cop in gun shop—can't divert unseen.
No one told presidents the full truth; officials ignorant. NYT article: Netanyahu presented easy war to Trump; table (Rubio, VP, Joint Chiefs chairman) said don't trust him, not a snap. Joe Rogan mentions Joe Kennedy said similar. They went around the table and Rubio has his say, the vice president has his say, the chairman of the joint
The chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff and others do not recognize that Iran is not capable of making nuclear weapons right now. It's like four or five dudes in a room who may not know much about it, none man enough to tell the president, "Mr. President, permission to speak freely. Sir, don't make this mistake." They lack understanding of the illusory threat. Rubio, Vance, or Caine, the chairman of the Joint Chiefs, should have informed the president. Vance was not there for the Netanyahu part; he was in Azerbaijan preparing for the war and arrived late due to a peace agreement with Armenia.
Vance visited Azerbaijan and Armenia around a peace agreement over a corridor across Armenia to Azerbaijan's enclave on the Turkish border. On February 10th, JD Vance and Aliyev met in Baku to discuss implementation of the historic August 8th White House peace summit, reaffirming commitment to regional peace, security, and prosperity. They signed the US-Azerbaijan strategic partnership charter. This was right before the war, explaining Vance's absence. Netanyahu might have timed the meeting knowing Vance opposed the war and was stuck abroad. The gathering was deliberately small to guard against leaks; other cabinet secretaries were unaware. Vance was absent due to short notice.
Symbolism in the Situation Room
Netanyahu sat at the head of the table where the president should sit, with Trump opposite, letting him run the meeting as an equal. Trump and Netanyahu have been friends for a long time. Speculation about compromise is possible but unknowable. Netanyahu once brought up Monica Lewinsky to Bill Clinton, implying they had tapes: "We're tapping your phone, homeboy. We got you on tape. Let Jonathan Pollard out of prison." Clinton refused because George Tenet and top CIA would resign. Trump later released Pollard, who is now running for the Knesset to the right of Netanyahu.
Netanyahu offered Lewinsky tapes for Pollard. Israel had recordings of Clinton on the phone with her. In 1996, first meeting with Clinton lasted half an hour; Clinton emerged exasperated: "Who the f does this guy think he is? Who's the superpower and who's the client state?" Netanyahu barked orders. Obama on hot mic to French president: "Oh man, you think you hate him? I got to deal with him every day" about Netanyahu.
JFK demanded inspections of Dimona nuclear facility. Israel officially has no nuclear weapons to avoid violating US aid laws under Glenn Symington law, prohibiting aid to nuclear states not signing NPT. Israel proliferated to South Africa, who gave them up post-apartheid. NPT is in jeopardy: Saddam disarmed but invaded; North Korea armed up; Libya gave up junk but leader killed; Iran says no nukes, but targeted. Non-nuclear states promise not to get them; nuclear states not to share.
Polls show countries considering nukes due to Trump's pivot from Europe amid war America helped cause. Israel has at least 200 nukes, per Mordechai Vanunu, whistleblower kidnapped in honey trap in Italy, held 18 years solitary. He told Sunday Times in 1986. Daniel Ellsberg anecdote incorrect; Vanunu confirmed 200 atom bombs. Grant F. Smith's research via FOIA shows hydrogen bomb research, no proof of production.
Part of JFK-Israel conflict over nukes and registering American Jewish Council (predecessor to AIPAC) as foreign agents. They dissolved it, created AIPAC. Speculation on JFK assassination: LBJ hired French hitmen, Israelis via James Jesus Angleton, Alan Dulles with Cubans. Too many theories.
Oliver Stone's JFK Film
JFK movie includes every theory but omits Israelis. Produced by Arnon Milchan, Israeli spy who helped Netanyahu steal krytrons for nuclear triggers. Stone acknowledged it might be part of a put-on.
LBJ close to Zionists; had Mossad agent girlfriend Mathilde Krim. Reversed JFK policies. Krim and husband Arthur advised LBJ during 1967 war. No daylight policy born under LBJ. Israel, size of Rhode Island, has immense pull since 1960s. Threatened Harry Truman with letter bombs to White House (per daughter's memoir), bribed for re-election. John B. Judis book on Truman; wrote 1995 Foreign Affairs article "From Trotskyism to Anachronism" on neoconservatives as spent force post-Cold War—yet they launched Iraq war.
Iran more likely to break out for bomb now. Trump called bluff on latent deterrent, willing to bomb. Impossible to make nuke undetected; US presidents would war over it, as Obama promised in Atlantic interview "As President, I Don't Bluff," begging Netanyahu via Jeffrey Goldberg. Same under Bush, Obama, Biden, next president. Iran should maintain enrichment without calling it bomb program, bet on less belligerent future leaders. Iran conventionally stronger than neighbors, deters Israel with missiles—blasted Tel Aviv. Should not have killed conservative old Ayatollah; new one's family killed (mother, wife, baby), making him more radical.
America should quit: Trump declare victory, close bases, bring ships/planes home. Forget Carter Doctrine—no Soviet threat. Shifts burden to Iran, dependent on hydrocarbon exports. They might tax Strait of Hormuz like Panama Canal or Indonesians—too bad, shouldn't have started war. Had Rubio's desired stability February 27th; war launched 28th (Waco anniversary). Killed two girls' schools: 73-74 little girls in one, 20 more in another with experimental Lockheed missile firing tungsten pellets to shred. Equivalent to Oklahoma City bombing (168 killed, including 20 daycare kids)—America did that to Iran, full of little girls.
Analogies to US Trauma
Like Pearl Harbor (Trump compared) but also wiping out 180 girls' schools, killing FDR/Pope in Catholic country—we'd nuke till dead. If Russia overthrew Canada government twice, we'd invade/nuke Moscow—absurd analogy we impose on them. Ron Paul: going around killing/bombing puts Americans in danger via blowback.
No Shiite fatwas like Sunni bin Laden (eyeball attack on Rushdie). Ayatollah Sistani could call jihad—he's stood up to US. Started war late night February 28th (Friday), next day Saturday 29th.
Saturday, the 29th, an American immigrant from Sierra Leone in Austin took an AR-15, wore a shirt with the Ayatollah and an Iranian flag, and shot 18 people on Sixth Street: killed three, wounded 15 in an immediate blowback terrorist attack, termed backdraft terrorism. Backdraft means consequences of overt foreign policies blowing up immediately, unlike long-term blowback from secret policies leaving Americans susceptible to false explanations. Those three were crucified for Israel's sins, 15 wounded, possibly still in hospital. This danger comes from government interventions.
Hypotheticals like Russia or China taking over the world fall away; no real reason to fear, and who are we to stop it? South Park reference: Cartman paranoid about Chinese at Olympics, recruits Butters to fight; Butters accidentally shoots guys in the dick repeatedly; Cartman quits, saying intervention isn't working.
Worried about Iran. Trump threatens to nuke them, said the country will glow; symbolic of frustration. He should not have started this, no good way out. Declare victory and walk away. Jerusalem Post story, end of April (April 28th), Trump ordered intelligence estimate on walking away: how bad will Iran exploit the vacuum? No options to fix it. Regime change requires hydrogen bomb on capital, killing 10 million, claiming desolation is peace—or forget it. Be tough enough to admit screw-up, like Afghanistan: stayed 20 years unable to win against Pashtuns without killing them all, so lost slowly until admitting defeat and leaving. Do that here, sooner better.
War lasting to end of regime, then 2028 successor gets out? Hope not; can't imagine three more years. Flaw in system: no parliamentary no-confidence vote. Wait three years, heart attack, or 25th Amendment coup for dementia—impossible, didn't do with Biden. Trump can flip-flop: announced ceasefire based on Iran's 11-point proposal, from unconditional surrender to surrendering unconditionally.
Holdup: deal with Netanyahu (Master Blaster from Thunderdome shouting in ear). In 60 Minutes, told Major Garrett war not over until uranium gotten; Trump promised, will get it. Israelis escalated bombing in Lebanon post-ceasefire to destroy it, prompting Tucker Carlson to say Trump enslaved by Netanyahu. Bill Clinton: who's superpower, who's client state? How can Israel veto ceasefire without chastisement?
Speculation: blackmail, bribery, or Trump wants legacy. Public choice theory: public choices made by private individuals for personal gain, not country—e.g., Strobe Talbott needing locked dollars, Polish votes. Good for country to come home, but discussions assume spinning defeat for Trump: gold medal, ticker-tape parade, pat on back to accept coming home without looking like jerk, live with Iran dominant aftermath three years.
Bush elevated Iran two pegs in Baghdad; Obama two more building/destroying caliphate; Al Qaeda rules Damascus now (hit against Iran). Trump equivalent to W. Bush in enhancing Iranian power—like football player running wrong way, scoring for other team.
Absolutely bad. February 27th, Gulf open for business under illusion of American air/naval power. Iran's Iraq, Hezbollah in south Lebanon, but Sunnis rule Damascus; GCC, Jordan, Turkey, Israel = America's empire. March 1st-3rd, over. Daryl Cooper (Provoked every Friday): Pentagon friends say one week in, war not going well—hitting bases, killed couple Americans, runways, radars, planes. Assets in Gulf up for grabs; can reach and touch us, nothing we can do.
Good to get perspective; wish had it before, understanding uranium enrichment to weapon. Promote shows: Scott Horton Show (interviews), Provoked with Daryl Cooper—YouTube, Spotify. Editorial director antiwar.com, director Libertarian Institute (libertarianinstitute.org). Scott Horton Academy of Foreign Policy and Freedom (scotthortonacademy.com). Books: Fool's Errand (Afghanistan), Enough Already (war on terrorism), Provoked (Russia/Ukraine).
Inspired by Bill Hicks on Raw Time (heavy metal Access Channel show, pre-internet, not long before death): importance of truth-tellers setting example, breaking force field, inspiring others. Following that path. Thanked for work in books, interviews, podcasts—troubling info, important access. Thank you for having me; do it again.
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