LIVE NOW: FOMC RATE DECISION & PRESS CONFERENCE
In a Nutshell
The new Fed chair Kevin Warsh held his first FOMC press conference, maintaining rates at 3.5-3.75% with a dot plot showing nine members favoring rate hikes this year, while announcing five task forces to overhaul Fed communications, data collection, and inflation frameworks. Markets sold off on the vagueness of the new approach, particularly Warsh's comments that "markets will tell us" and his decision not to submit his own dot projection. The speaker warns this represents a major shift from Powell's style, with concerns about Fed independence if task force advisors are influenced by the administration, and advises traders to use lighter position sizing until the new framework becomes clearer.
These notes were generated by AI and may contain inaccuracies.
Ricky from TechBud Solutions is hosting a live stream for the FOMC rate decision and press conference. This marks the first press conference with the new Fed chair, who is expected to serve 7 to 14 years. The Nasdaq market is slightly in the green, up about half a percent, but has been consolidating throughout the day.
The primary focus is not the rate decision itself, as there is a 98.6% probability the Federal Reserve will pause. The bigger focus is the overall outlook - whether committee members are open to rate hikes this year. The dot plot is significant, with three officials expected to pencil in rate hikes this year, which could cause markets to sell off.
The guidance from the Federal Reserve matters more than the actual rate decision. If members are more open to raising interest rates rather than cutting, especially as they move away from the 2% target, this creates uncertainty. Trump closing and signing a deal either today or by Friday could potentially reduce that uncertainty.
The LPP landing page has been updated with revolving tickers based on real-time data, a risk-to-reward ratio calculator, and an economic calendar powered by investing.com. The market expectation is no change in rates. SpaceX is down 2% on the day.
The market shows a slight pullback with no break of structure initially. QQQ has strong support at 731. Markets begin selling off more significantly, making new lows on the day and from yesterday. From 0.5% in the green, the market moves to down a quarter of a percent and falling. The press conference is still pending.
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