LIVE NOW: FOMC RATE DECISION & PRESS CONFERENCE
In a Nutshell
FOMC holds rates at 3.5-3.75% amid solid GDP growth (2.4% this year), stable 4.4% unemployment, and elevated inflation (core PCE 3.0%), with Powell emphasizing data-dependent policy, anchored 2% expectations despite oil/tariff shocks, and balanced risks. Markets rally briefly post-decision then consolidate at QQQ/SPY support (595-597), with streamer analyzing stocks: bullish MU/ASTS technically but avoid overvalued TSLA/OPEN/NKE; warns against shorting speculative pumps or holding big losses (20-50%+). Key advice: manage risk with stops/profits pre-volatility, use tools like Investing Pro; pullback healthy, not crash—trade ranges informed by technicals/fundamentals.
These notes were generated by AI and may contain inaccuracies.
Ricky with Techbud Solutions is live streaming the market reaction to the FOMC rate decision, happening in less than 4 minutes. Live posting via Discord. Trades live every morning at market open with LPP team; second link in description has discount. Fresh haircut, done before 11:00. Markets trading lower but not by much; big move in pre-market due to PPI report. Federal Reserve expected to pause per Fed rate monitor tool (100% probability), no cut or raise. Markets want cuts, but only one projected for 2026.
1 minute left. Steps before announcement: if aggressive or overleveraged position, adjust now to avoid volatility. Not ideal for beginners to take large positions before major economic report.
No change: rates at 3.75%. Markets rally initially (NASDAQ testing pre-market support). Expected outcome. Two waves of pressure: rate decision and press conference (Jerome Powell in 28 minutes). PPI report caused earlier dramatic move.
Zoom out: nothing bullish currently; Middle East uncertainty. Continue live for press conference?
Markets consolidating, waiting for Jerome Powell's tone (possible Middle East comments). NASDAQ slight rejection. Break down stocks using Investing Pro software (55% off sale, less than $9/month, 22 hours left). Analyze technicals and fundamentals.
Larger timeframe incredibly bullish: higher highs, higher lows, $500B market cap. Overbought but resilient; not worth shorting. Fundamentals: 21% downside per 39 analysts; net income growth expected; sales growth anticipated; 8 analysts revised earnings up; P/E 44.1; $42B revenue, $11.9B net income. From $62 lows to $471. Q1 revenue $13.6B (+57% YoY), gross margins 56%, record cash flow $3.9B. AI infrastructure momentum. Revenue growth correlates to price. Missed boat; premium valuation, potential downside in correction, but no short.
Bullish recent retracement; 4H consolidation, no direction. Set alerts for break above/below. Lower highs/lows uncertain. Fundamentals: 26.4% downside per 11 analysts ($4-5 targets); negative P/E -70.5; net income -$121M; $2.6B debt, negative free cash flow. Avoid; crashes hard if worse.
Incredibly bullish: higher highs/lows, insane growth. Momentum play: buy lows, sell rips. Speculative. Fundamentals: 8% downside; net income -$461M; negative P/E. Rallied in bullish conditions; risky in downturn. 34% upside to highs, 20-30% downside to lows. Ascending uptrend; exit if breaks support, lower highs/lows. Red flag: burns cash, insane valuation.
Loves Elon, owns Cybertruck and Model X Plaid (depreciate fast). As car company, not doing good; insane valuation without Elon. 30% downside per 41 analysts; P/E 393; most overvalued Magnificent 7. $1.5T market cap, <$4B net income; revenue not growing since 2023 (now 2026). Hype from Optimus robot, SpaceX. Not good deal at $400; possible if stories pay off. Dreamer's story vs. straightforward Mag 7 like Nvidia. Tolerate downturn if believe in vision. Elon: Optimus #1 consumer product ever.
Selling off since end 2021; now $52-53, same as 2016. Huge analyst upside; P/E not attractive; $2.5B net income, $46B revenue; down 67%. Not growing: net income -32% YoY due to tariffs, US-China tensions, overseas manufacturing. Costs high. Warren Buffett: buy when others fearful. Household name struggling; good business? Buy small for kids long-term (15-20 years)? Not fancy tech/AI, but brand recovery potential despite geopolitics, revenue issues.
Not a fan; meme stock from $0.50 to $10. Open army hype. House flipper (not AI/tech); razor thin margins; failed in bullish housing. Not profitable. Lost $1.3B last year despite offloading inventory. Not growing. Hype can manipulate, but doesn't believe; some see $82 target.
Shorting speculative stocks like failing businesses with cultlike followings involves high risk, especially for beginners. These stocks can pump up briefly before crashing down. Open recorded its highest loss in a year. Many holders are bagholding from $7-9 per share, wiping out 30-50% of accounts. Question for viewers: At what point do you cut losses—20%, 30%, 40%, 50%, 60%? Consider this when holding losing positions with declining volume, momentum, and falling prices.
FOMC rate decision out; press conference starting with Jerome Powell (JP). Watching live with 1,900 viewers—drop a thumbs up. Using Investing Pro software for ideas and watchlists; 55% off sale (affiliate link), under $9/month. Check it out if valuable.
Fed focused on dual mandate: maximum employment and stable prices. US economy expanding solidly; job gains low, unemployment stable at 4.4% in February; inflation elevated. Policy rate unchanged at 3½ to 3¾%. Middle East developments uncertain; attentive to risks.
Economic activity solid: resilient consumer spending, expanding business fixed investment, weak housing. SEP median: real GDP +2.4% this year, +2.3% next year (stronger than December).
Labor market: unemployment 4.4% since late summer; job gains slowed due to lower immigration and participation, plus softened demand. Job openings, layoffs, hiring, wage growth stable. SEP median unemployment: 4.4% end of year, edges down after.
Inflation eased from 2022 highs but elevated: total PCE +2.8% (12 months to February), core PCE +3.0%; driven by goods inflation from tariffs. Near-term expectations up due to oil price rise from Middle East disruptions; longer-term anchored at 2%. SEP median: total PCE 2.7% this year, 2.2% next (higher than December).
Policy: Rate held at 3½-3¾% after ¾ point cuts Sep-Dec, now near neutral. Helps stabilize labor market, resume inflation decline. Middle East effects uncertain: higher energy prices push inflation short-term; monitor risks. Well positioned for data-dependent adjustments.
SEP dot plot: median funds rate 3.4% end of year, 3.1% end of next (unchanged from December). Not preset course; meeting-by-meeting decisions. Committed to maximum employment, 2% inflation, anchored expectations.
Colby Smith (NYT): Debate on looking through Middle East oil inflation; influence of 5 years above target?
Progress needed on goods inflation as tariff one-time effects fade. Core inflation ~3%, half to ¾ from tariffs. Check that box first. Standard to look through energy shocks if expectations anchored, but consider 5-year context.
On SEP bias to cuts despite higher inflation forecasts: 19 individual views; median unchanged but some shifted to fewer cuts (e.g., 4-5 from 2 to 1). Conditional on inflation progress mid-year as tariffs unwind; no progress means no cuts.
Howard Schneider (Reuters): 2026 inflation rise solely oil shock? SEP unchanged due to oil pass-through or growth concerns (wealth effects, gas diverting spending)?
Partly oil (some in core), but also slow core goods/tariff progress expected to improve. Effects unknown—could weigh on consumption/income if prolonged high gas prices, or less pass-through. SEP numbers tentative amid uncertainty; economy solid otherwise (stable unemployment, low job break-even).
Steve (unidentified): Staff view on oil hit to consumption offset by US production boost?
Net exporter; offsets via oil company profits/drilling possible if sustained higher prices, but companies need persistence beyond $70/barrel to ramp up—not immediate. Net: downward pressure on spending/employment, upward on inflation.
Follow-up: Risk to credibility from looking through tariffs/oil after 5 years above target (pandemic, tariffs, energy shocks)?
Analyze carefully; aware of history/repeated shocks risking expectations. Strongly committed to anchoring at 2%.
Nick Timmeros (WSJ): Confidence in inflation to 2% with stable unemployment, sideways high-2s inflation (services overshoot), solid economy; policy modestly restrictive?
Rate at high end of neutral/mildly restrictive. Disinflation via tariff runoff (one-time goods price hikes fading; goods was negative pre-tariffs, now +2%). Keep mildly restrictive to balance downside labor risks (lower rates) vs. upside inflation (no cuts). Non-housing services sideways ~1 year despite looser labor/wages—idiosyncratic; expect decline with goods/tariffs progress.
Edward Lawrence (Fox Business): Employment revisions (Dec to +7k, Jan down, Feb -92k)—greater risk than inflation (CPI ~2%, PCE ticking down)? No Fed chair confirmed by May 15—would you stay?
Risks balanced: unemployment stable since Sep (better ratio metric amid sharp supply/demand drop from immigration); core 3.0%, headline 2.8%—need to 2% despite new energy inflation. If no successor confirmed by term end, serve as chair pro tem per law (done before).
On leaving amid investigation: No intention until over with transparency/finality (see Fed brief). Post-term as governor: undecided, based on institution's best interest. Figuring you probably were going to set the dominoes off there.
Claire Jones from the Financial Times asks about historical parallels to the current situation, such as the first Gulf War and the Fed's focus on growth risks. Chair Powell responds that it's hard to say until seeing the actual situation. In some circumstances, it might be the right case, especially if disinflationary progress occurs due to tariffs. It depends on the size and duration of price effects and inflation expectations.
Follow-up on the BLS report: Projections and comments suggest no change in viewing the labor market as largely a supply-side story despite the negative February number. Powell confirms: take January (positive surprise) and February (negative surprise) together for a middle ground. January report positive, February negative due to strike and weather accounting for 80,000 of the negative effect.
Step back: indicators suggest stability, but concern about very low job creation. Adjusting six-month trend for staff-estimated overstatement due to overcounting shows zero net job creation in private sector, matching low labor force growth. Biggest factor is deliberate policy changes to immigration. Watching carefully.
Andrew asks if series of supply shocks (COVID, tariffs, two oil price shocks) is bad luck or world change making them more common, and if central bank should account for them as common. Powell: went through long period of demand shocks, now practiced on supply shocks last 4-5 years. Supply shocks harder, raise tension between mandate parts.
COVID one-time, energy shock one-time, Ukraine oil shock from military action. Not sure world has changed for more supply shocks, though more in last 5 years than before. People have written papers making that case.
Question on Fed reviewing communication strategies including SCP as part of framework review, and what to change. Powell: not much happened. Looked at SCP and communications, but no ideas with broad committee support. Don't change without committee backing. Hoped for some changes but didn't attract support. Already made framework changes. Next chair may review.
Michael McKee for Bloomberg: January minutes showed some wanted two-sided guidance. Discussed today? Support given rising inflation expectations? Powell: possibility of next move being increase came up, as last meeting. Vast majority don't see as base case, nothing off table. Several participants indicated similar to minutes.
Follow-up: goods besides oil trapped in strait, supply chains snarled. Concern if inflation problem beyond oil? Efficacy of monetary policy? Powell: worry about other commodities and oil-related into manufacturing. Out of hands, wait and see duration, price effects, consumer reaction. Nothing to speculate, little can do other than watch.
Maria Louisa Capuro with Bloomberg News: longer-term measures reflect confidence in 2% goal, but some colleagues note higher dispersion in household, service, business surveys as signal expectations less sticky. Discussion at meeting? State of expectations and risks from oil/gas prices?
Powell: staff briefed on short-term expectations moving up for understood reasons. Long-term: overwhelming majority of indicators (markets, public surveys, forecasters) solid, consistent with 2%. Continues to be case. Little conversation, but watching extremely carefully as price increases from conflict come through.
Markets selling off but consistent with past weeks. LP team celebrating pullback. Up $6,000 on MSTZ long while MSTR drops. Take profits when it makes sense, use stop loss, no excuses.
Markets consolidating: QQQ, SPY at common support ~595-597, resistance ~610 (multiple rejections). Bigger picture overbought/oversold levels for informed decisions on longs/shorts, profits. Trading in range, review bad trades on larger time frames, prepare not predict.
Pullback, not sell-off. Money not yours until profits taken. Healthy habit: stop-loss or trim at support/resistance. Manage risk, not avoid. Keep losses small, take profits. Covered in LPP lesson library (structure: lessons, live sessions, group chat; one-time lifetime access, discounted second link). Investing Pro software (first link, sale ending soon).
Encourage thumbs up, subscribe, end year green.
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