The Man Warning The West: Trump Is Changing The World Behind The Scenes
These notes were generated by AI and may contain inaccuracies.
Mention of Greenland potentially invaded by the US, situation in Iran, Trump snatching Maduro from Venezuela, China taking back Taiwan. The West is becoming weaker, emboldening enemies and leading to the final collapse of the shared myth of a structured world governed by rules.
Trump recognizes this reality and refuses to play by fake rules no one else follows.
Risks exist with this strategy. Russia's invasion of Ukraine was not an accident but a test by Putin to see if the West could be challenged, due to lost focus and purpose.
Europe: 12% of world's population, 25% of world's GDP, 60% of world's welfare spending. Germany destroyed nuclear facilities, reliant on Russian gas. Britain destroyed manufacturing, run down armed forces due to feeling safe. Per capita, less money today than 20 years ago; highest tax burden in peacetime history; driving out entrepreneurs; decline in global power and influence.
Opportunity to turn things around with big decisions.
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Final collapse of post-WWII order (1945 Cold War start) and post-Soviet collapse order (1991 Soviet Union collapse leading to unipolar world with US hegemony).
West lost focus post-1991, took eye off the ball.
International law as shared myth (per Yuval Noah Harari's Sapiens): like money, backed only by consent and force of most powerful country (US). No enforcement for violations like China invading Taiwan.
Rules-based order gone; Trump acts in US interest: Venezuela's Maduro hostile, destabilized (7 million refugees), cozying with Russia/China, Hezbollah camps on Margarita Island. Revives Monroe Doctrine: no foreign meddling in US backyard.
Risk in every strategy; West weakening emboldens enemies. Russia-Ukraine invasion, October 7th (Hamas/ Iran test), China-Taiwan talks as symptoms.
Not just Biden; decades-long process.
Western alliance crumbling, big risk for Europe/Britain.
Superpowers target non-nuclear states. Nuclear powers (US, Russia, China) deter intervention.
West undermined moral credibility via Afghanistan/Iraq wars: can't condemn Russia-Ukraine after invading on whims.
Eroded moral authority and military strength.
Trump talking kidnapping presidents, taking oil, Greenland (belongs to NATO ally Denmark): fundamental change, sets precedent for power grabs.
Shifting balance creates power struggles (e.g., Mexico drug cartels). Trump reflects reality: if others act freely, US must too.
Nuclear proliferation risk: not fully supporting Ukraine pushes small countries to seek nukes for security.
Nuclear powers (9): US, Russia, UK, France, China, India, Pakistan, North Korea, Israel (policy: won't confirm possession but will use if state destruction imminent).
Pakistan constrained despite nukes; big arsenals (US/Russia/China) enable aggression.
Post-1991: West lost purpose, danger awareness. Europe comfortable: 12% population, 25% GDP, 60% welfare.
Pursued net zero economic suicide: Germany destroyed nuclear, reliant on Russian gas (offered Ukraine 5,000 helmets initially). Britain: highest industrial electricity prices, destroyed manufacturing, can't make virgin steel.
Consequences now hitting.
Britain/Europe plummeting in global importance/power.
Trump's 12-day war destroying Iran nuclear facilities: no consultation with Britain.
Americans love Britain but see it/Europe as weak/irrelevant. Alliances require strength.
UK PM no longer consulted (e.g., Venezuela: Keir Starmer unaware). Debt interest repayments 1.5x (heading to 2x) defense budget; debt-to-GDP >100%; GDP per capita lower than 2006; highest peacetime tax burden; economy declined; destroyed manufacturing/armed forces.
UK government (e.g., David Lammy) imprudently criticized Trump while in opposition.
Actions have consequences; UK now irrelevant in big decisions (Venezuela, Iran).
Konstantin Kisin stays in UK to fight for British renaissance despite offers to leave.
Not hopeful but not futile; opportunity if strategies change.
Historical parallels: companies/countries pursuing current UK strategy decline.
UK always seen as great in speaker's lifetime (born Botswana, moved young), but complacency led here.
UK potential (people, education, science/tech, culture: bands, comedians) requires right leadership/strategy.
Why would these issues impact us on an individual level for the average person in the United States or Britain? Symptoms of the multipolar world or fall of Britain include already being poorer today than 20 years ago per capita in the UK. Domestic issues like mass immigration are proxies for economic decline; if the economy was growing and people felt richer, these would be less important.
Multipolar World Instability
Multipolar world is by necessity more violent and unstable. Recorded mid-January, already crazy geopolitical instability in two weeks. This bleeds into domestic politics: spending more resources abroad means less at home. Ramifications impactful worldwide, more on non-Western countries on the front line, but significant for the West.
Rise in Socialism
Adjacent rise in socialism, e.g., Menani elected mayor. Linked to bigger picture.
- Wrote article/video Why I Fear the Future.
- Live show in London before Christmas: audience member with teenager daughter far left, son far right.
Chaos, instability, cultural upheaval produce craving for order (right) and sense of injustice/inequality (left: eat the rich, redistribute). Young people in big cities can't get on housing ladder, establish family; reach for disproven socialist solutions Menani will deliver. Future taken away by borrowing from children/grandchildren via crippling debts; they'll foot the bill.
In US, more contained around New York/other big cities, not nationwide.
Elite Overproduction and AI
Elite overproduction: Tony Blair's 50% university attendance, but not enough jobs, especially with AI eliminating them. Entitlement high, prospects low → social disease.
AI job losses quick/extreme per AI godfathers/CEOs; consensus socialism increases.
- Self-driving cars (e.g., in America, drives 2.5-3 hours to Joshua Tree uninterrupted).
- Driving biggest profession worldwide.
- London announced Waymos; soon Teslas full self-driving.
- Delivery/taxi/Uber drivers jobless.
- Autonomous humanoid robots: Elon Musk's pay package for 1 million; Jason Calacanis (visited factory) predicts billion; Tesla remembered for robots not cars; Optimus consequential.
- SF innovation accelerator: all young founders working robotics because parts existed 20-30 years, but intelligence/brain expensive ($20-30k for robot arm); now 2 cents → explosion.
San Francisco: 1/4-1/3 cars driverless visually striking.
Some founders sensible/responsible but China will if we don't. Move fast and break things mentality in AI → hugely disruptive, produces backlash/disease, but humanity recovers; this different level. Millions jobless, disproportionately young prone to extremism.
Wealth accrues to few.
In jobless world, half-jokingly 100% on board with communism (wrote book opposing based on experience).
Communism in AI Future
Communism means everybody paid for existing; can't create fake jobs. If robots create all wealth accruing to 50 people, unsustainable; unwise to hold all wealth, won't end well. Either voluntary redistribution or at bayonets.
Personal Planning for Disruption
Harder to replace with robot (people don't want robot opinions). In 10 years, comfortable. For children, different: no plumbers in 15-20 years. Equip with basic skills: personable, resourceful, creative, positive go-getter mindset vs. predetermined career (unless AI/robotics, safe 5 years).
AI Angst Driving Socialism
Angst like aliens coming for jobs/values; CEOs tell corporate workers learn AI or replaced. Drives to socialism understandably. AI people irresponsible messaging, e.g., Times Square billboard: Stop hiring humans. The age of the AI employee.
AI upsides limitless: solve cancer, medical problems, better than best physicist, eternal engine, no energy needed.
Elon Musk video on Optimus robots:
How good at surgery? Better surgeon than best in 3 years at scale; more Optimus great surgeons than all on Earth. Better than any human in 4 years (plastic surgery 5 years not close). Everyone access to better medical care than president now. Don't go to medical school; pointless.
Incentive/temperament optimistic + sales, but even if not 3 years, not more than 10 (given doctor training time). Medicine effectively free, best in world.
Attempted counterrevolution against 1979 revolution overthrowing Shah for Islamic dictatorship; repeated brutal suppressions, happening now.
Fits geopolitics: even Trump brash but no kinetic action due to US public skepticism of interventions; can't sell regime change. Iran leaders feel safer to crackdown.
Trump actions:
- Vocal: US come to protesters' rescue, locked/loaded/ready.
- Countries doing business with Iran face 25% US tariff.
- Called for continued protesting.
- Canceled meetings until killing stops; help on the way; make Iran great (MAGA).
Persian Empire/people great with rich history; pre-1979 Tehran: women in miniskirts. Long freedom history unlike rest of Middle East.
Reluctance: remove leadership, transition via Shah's son Reza to democracy? Who protects from old regime remnants? No US boots (zero appetite).
Outcome unknown; fear regime kills enough to suppress (like Ukraine: rah-rah but insufficient support). Sympathize but wary without full backing.
Estimates 2,000-18,000 killed (internet down, hard numbers). Courageous protesting horrific oppression; hope geopolitical realities allow support.
Trump walks talk more (vs. Biden on Taiwan). Warns/bombs (Venezuela, Iran nukes). Marco Rubio, Pete Hegseth: if Trump says, he does.
Past mistakes: Libya, Iraq, Afghanistan, Syria (now jihadi-led), Egypt (Arab Spring → Muslim Brotherhood → military back). Need post-removal plan.
Trump on Greenland and Empires
Trump talking Greenland (easy way or hard way); protects North/South America sphere: military bases, resources.
Returning to empires? Never left; post-WWII brief dream (Cold War proxy wars like now). Trump not playing fake rules others ignore. Russia, India rising; all making moves.
Trump endeavoring to take control there, as every great power seeks.
Trump seeks to control neighbors for strategic advantage, as every great power does to prevent foreign influence in their backyard.
I mean, I didn't hear this rhetoric for the other 30 years of my life. As explicitly.
Poles: US and China as main two; Russia claims third; rise of India over time, which is more sensible in development.
Is the multipolar world a good thing or a bad thing or indifferent?
For people in Europe: Likely very bad, becoming less powerful, less wealthy, less relevant.
Solutions for Europe/UK
- Abandon suicidal economic policy for growth, increasing GDP share and prosperity, quelling domestic unease.
- Immigration: Positives but tremendous cultural instability; people feel country changing without voting for it. Arrest this by fully integrating arrivals, stopping massive inflows, dealing with illegal immigration for sense of fairness. Young people disillusioned, won't fight for country feeling it doesn't care (e.g., housing for immigrants while locals can't buy).
- Rebuild military capacity.
- Understand new world, pick alliances: Best for Britain to nurture alliance with US, make itself relevant, join forces on similar interests.
- Have more kids.
- More people = more power (all else equal).
- Demographic death spiral: Mass immigration masks per capita decline; politicians bring in people to claim economy growing (not per capita).
Analogy: Family of 4 with £100k income. Add in-laws (2 people, £10k each income): Household now £120k (richer?) but 6 people, per person poorer. UK/Europe leaders did this to pretend not getting poorer.
We need people to come and do the jobs. They mean we need more people so economy grew by 0.3% while per capita poorer.
- Societies with kids more dynamic; need young energy, avoid staleness from too many older people.
New year goals often unacted; start business despite overwhelm. Shopify enables store build, social selling, payments, AI tools. Go to shopify.co.uk/bartlet for $1/month trial.
Game-changer for 35-40% of team: focus, energy, productivity. Host tried, became co-owner. ketone.com/stephven for 30% off, free gift on second shipment; free first shot at Target stores US.
Highest tax burden in peacetime history; driving business away. Many business leaders leaving UK.
Quality of life declined.
Pessimism self-fulfilling: Founders sell business (e.g., 10% for £20M) then discuss escape plans (didn't happen 10 years ago).
Causes: High taxes; government calls rich/entrepreneurs evil (UK algorithm: successful = privileged from gentry era). US attitude: success from hard work/great idea, learn from them.
Net zero makes energy-intensive businesses (e.g., AI) unviable; heavy Europe regulation. 1990s had positive business climate.
Starmer opposite: Can't act on welfare trap (huge spending on people against their interest).
Welfare Trap
Young driven people (host/guest in 20s: anxious, depressed) offered £20k/year benefits to stay home (PlayStation, weed) instead of work. Traps hundreds of thousands/millions; unsustainable, uncuttable (Labour backbench revolted on reforms).
Tax stats:
- Top 10% taxpayers pay 60% all income tax.
- Top 1% pay 30-33% income tax (HMRC data: 30%).
- Capital gains similar; top 10% pay 60% combined.
Chasing rich shrinks tax base, taxes middle more to fund net tax consumers.
Empathy from near-missing Jobseeker's Allowance at 18/19 (bailiff letters, smashed laptop, scavenging for food). But sees entrepreneurs' escape plans (not rich leaving, but wealth-creators).
Revolut founder Nikolay Storonsky left for Dubai/UAE: £3B potential capital gains tax loss = income tax of ~450,000 average UK taxpayers (£7-7.5k/year each) = entire midsized UK city for one year.
Congratulations, you tax the rich. Now half a million people pay more tax.
Moral argument (rich evil) blinds to practice failure.
UK advantages: Lovely place (vs Dubai); add cheap energy, growth focus, non-punitive taxes → retain founders creating future wealth. Economics drives military/resources too.
Understands economy (avoids personality endorsements to prevent tribalism).
Hypothetical: If Keir Starmer announced: cut business taxes, ditch net zero, cheapest energy, strong military, 50k new police for street crime → full support.
Starmer stats: Only 18% Britons view positively; 65-72% unfavorable. Weakest approval of recent PMs.
Probably a really nice person... well-intentioned, fairly competent, but completely wrong.
Not just him: Conservatives/Lib Dems useless before; Blair Labour competent at bad policies. Decades of terrible leadership.
Shift needed: Gigantic cultural, not just political. E.g., unaffordable welfare (Tories/Labour failed). Labour could've succeeded without 'hate poor' accusation but caved.
Cultural transitions are very very very hard. And I say that from the perspective as a business owner. If you tried to get me to change when I had a lot of people... I remember in my German office back in the day in social change German office,
We had 150 people. Very different culture to the UK. I thought naively as a 23-24 year old I could fly there and change the culture of the Berlin office. This is not how we do things. I could not change the culture of the Berlin office. So I think about a country changing the culture of a country.
That's why I'm what I call an accelerationist. It means that I believe the only way these things will truly fundamentally get better is when they get really really bad first. The only way to change the culture is for people to understand what's actually happening so that they can't pretend the things that are happening are not happening.
Most people don't yet quite know that they're poorer today than they were 20 years ago. Most people still think that we are saving the planet when we reduce Britain's carbon emissions from 2% to 1.9% of global carbon emissions. In fact, we're not even doing that. We're taking our carbon emissions and sending them to India and China and then shipping back the stuff they make for us in a dirtier way on big tankers which actually consume more dirty fuel and we're actually ending up increasing our CO2 output.
But when they feel it in their pocket, when they feel like we're having a fiscal crisis, when they feel like they really can't afford their life anymore, that's when they're going to start to ask some of these questions. It's one of the reasons the narrative on net zero is shifting. Almost nobody other than the government in this country still believes in the idea of net zero.
Net Zero Policies Harming Economy and People
On the subject of global warming, it's scientific fact that the climate is changing unfavorably. Scientists talk about the poles melting and how that will have big impact on third world nations, more migration, more natural disasters.
Let's accept that for the sake of argument. How is outsourcing our carbon emissions to other countries while destroying our economy making that better? It's not. We are pretending to be saving the planet when we are not saving the planet while also destroying our economy while also making sure that pensioners in this country die every winter because they can't afford to pay the heating bills. We are not saving the planet by killing pensioners.
Have you ever thought about going into politics? Eligible? Yes. Have I ever thought about it? No. People offer me to go into politics regularly, but it's not my game. I feel I have way more influence doing what I do now than being prime minister or the MP for wherever who gets one chance to ask a question of the prime minister.
I get to speak to way more people and to persuade more people and to articulate ideas in a much more unfiltered sense. When you become a politician you start having to talk the party line and then you suddenly don't quite follow what you actually believe. I'm interested in describing things in reality as I see them. If there are politicians who want to take that on, that's their job, not mine. I just don't have the temperament for it. I'm much more interested in the truth than in getting along with people, coalition building, caring about potholes.
In this multipolar world, who is it a good thing for? China because they get to do what they want, whatever that is. They're much less restrained by the US. Good for India for same reasons. Is it good for Russia? We'll find out. Possibly. Good for America? Yes and no. America will be able to get what it wants in that world, but it's probably going to find itself in a lot more confrontations internationally, and that will be a drain on its resources and energy.
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Have we ever been in a multipolar world through history? Loads of times. History of the English-speaking peoples by Winston Churchill talks about strong ruler then no heir, period of weakness, big power struggle.
You are going to see more instability, more violence, more attempts to fight for dominance. It's going to be a much more unstable period. One reason I've been passionate about saying let's not allow this to happen.
Instability in terms of war, conflict, people trying to redraw maps, get access to resources.
Examples: fifth century BC ancient Greece, 19th century Europe 1850s-1914, warring states of China 475 BC.
What happens next: more friction, less restraint, higher risk. Rules weaken (international law), regional wars begin (not one big war), arms races accelerate, some alliances harden, economic fragmentation, domestic pressure rises (higher defense spending, higher taxes, lower growth).
End games: managed chaos, major war, reset, new hegemon emerges (like US 1991-recently).
Agreement with Historical Patterns
Do you agree with that pattern? Yeah. But don't present me as an expert; I'm just a guy thinking from first principles. All of this is common sense because it comes back to human nature. We are a tribal competitive species. When there isn't a dominant force everyone respects, power vacuum leads to power struggle.
Next step is power struggle, but that's what you're seeing now. Never been a nuclear one. Nuclear weapons have been the great force for peace. Dominic Sandbrook (from The Rest is History) said nuclear weapons is why we haven't had a major war and maybe the one thing that will constrain major war.
It's one possibility, also great risk. Hopeful that human self-preservation instinct is strong. Most likely we don't go there. But nuclear weapons may not be the most powerful 20 years from now.
Trump is a certain type of leader, unapologetic. He's even more unapologetic now with only a couple years left, can't be reelected. Concerned if different leader, someone China/Russia think less likely to send jets at night to bomb nuclear bunkers or snatch a president? Massive risk for the West.
Withdrawal from Afghanistan, embarrassing, is how you get everything else: October 7th, Ukraine invasion. That's what happens when they see weakness.
Jungle Book Analogy from Soviet Version
Cultural differences: Soviet Jungle Book different. Opening scene: Akella, lead wolf, misses hunt. Cry goes around the jungle: when leader shows weakness, power struggle begins. He's no longer top dog.
So, do you think Trump's a good thing for the West?
Trump is a good thing for America. He's exposed the weakness of Europe. Cleave happening between Europe and America. Could be good for Europe if they wake up from the nightmare and act differently. Not what's happening right now; opposite direction.
What would it take for you to leave the UK? If next election shows Britain going further down current path, two or three years from now conclude no way back. It's over. Happened to great countries. Wouldn't subject children to that. If we can rescue it, make Britain great again, love to fight for that.
Most important thing: we can't live in a world where we care more about how things make us feel than consequences. Thomas Sowell: last several decades spent replacing what works with what feels good. All policies discussed are about what feels good vs. what works. Chasing out entrepreneurs fulfills ideological emotional needs vs. practical.
If we adjust back to reality, world's our oyster.
Book: An Immigrant's Love Letter to the West
An Immigrant's Love Letter to the West, Sunday Times bestseller, 2022. Gets more accurate every day; was pessimistic.
Unique: wedded to objective truth vs. ideologically captured. Attacks both sides.
What take most issue with on the right? Woke right: identitarian resentment victimhood-based, like Nick Fuentes, Candace Owens. They've been oppressed, fault of Jews/whoever. Elements openly fascistic, reminiscent of Nazis.
Mainstream right rejected them, reassuring. Mistake to include them; pollutes reputation with independents/moderates (overwhelming majority).
Risk of right repeating left's mistakes: woke took over left unchallenged, associated with blue-haired ideology. If extremists take over right, entire movement painted as extremists, lose opportunity.
Right has opportunity: craving order after chaos (crime, illegal immigration, cultural disruption). Be reasonable, in charge long time. Jordan Peterson on chaos/order.
Are you happy? Very. My family. Having children is a blessing, best thing ever.
Why? Can't explain fully; experience it. Future no longer abstraction: cared theoretically, now little people are future. More attached to ancestors, empathy for parents. Joy, nothing like it. Hard, don't sleep, stressful, but best.
Got one kid, maybe more.
Primary concern for world they're coming into? Primary: wife and I raise them well. They'll deal with world. Grandfather/great-grandfather sent to Eastern Front younger than me now, baby son at home, never came back. Humans always deal with terrible world.
Who was the biggest non-family member influence? Not fair to one. Teacher gave opportunity when I didn't deserve it, taught to give people chance to prove themselves.
Intellectually: Thomas Sowell, transformational.
Personal: toured with Jordan Peterson three weeks, transformational seeing him up close, spending time with him.
This is a man who acts the same in public as in private, one of the very rare people who preaches what he practices.
In El Paso on the border, arrived late from the airport, starving. Peterson only eats steak, and fans figure out he will be at the best steak restaurant in town. Group sits down, waiter brings menus, first group of guys and girls approaches. Peterson stands up, forgets the menu despite starvation, gives them full attention: selfies, chats, asks what they do. Sits down, orders. Another group comes, same full attention. Steaks finally arrive; in America, they ask to check if cooked properly. He cuts a piece, puts it on a fork, about to eat when a group of 20 people arrives saying "Dr. Peterson, I'm so sorry." He puts the fork down, stands up, gives them the exact same full attention as everyone else.
This exemplifies a man who talks about living in a certain way and actually practices it. Incredibly inspiring and educational, provided thoughts about relationships and how to live life. He is a great man.
Closing Remarks and Podcast Promotion
Constantine. Thank you. Thank you very much. Thanks for having me.
Stay in the pursuit of truth. Highly recommend checking out Triggernometry podcast (link below) and the book (link below).
Stephen. When are you coming on Triggernometry? That's the question. I've just finished my book. UK exclusive is what I'm hearing. Deal. Deal. [laughter] Signed. Thank you so much. I really appreciate it. Thanks, man. I appreciate you having me.
I believe that we are already at the early stages if not in World War III. We are one misunderstanding, one miscalculation away, or even one AI-generated viral video from nuclear annihilation. So, here's a terrifying detail that the public does not know. Wow.
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