The War Is About To Get A Lot Worse
In a Nutshell
Trump warns of total destruction of Iran's infrastructure unless a deal is made, closing the Strait of Hormuz and risking a global economic crisis from oil shortages, higher Treasury yields (nearing 4.6-4.8% debt death spiral), and forced foreign selling of $70T in US assets. Historical crises like 2008 QE and 2020 COVID enabled power centralization; the likely US response—Type 2 QE amid oil spikes—will trigger stagflation worse than 2021's 9% inflation. Central planners will offload $40T US debt globally via corporate digital wallets (e.g., Tesla, Apple) backed by Treasuries, stablecoins like Tether, and CBDCs, creating a financial control grid while funding UBI for AI-displaced workers; protect with self-custodied physical gold/silver/Bitcoin, cash, and local networks.
These notes were generated by AI and may contain inaccuracies.
President Trump warned Iran the entire country could be taken out if they do not make a deal. Every bridge in Iran will be decimated by 12:00 tomorrow night, where every power plant in Iran will be out of business, burning, exploding, and never to be used again. Complete demolition. In the middle of that speech, stock market futures dropped, oil went up even more than before, and Bitcoin went down. The Strait of Hormuz, the most important oil choke point on Earth responsible for 20 million barrels a day, is still closed. Total tanker transit calls are still down.
If the Strait stays closed for another 2 to 3 weeks, virtually guaranteed based on the president's statements, the global economy will reach a breaking point where even if the war stops, it might be too late and start a crisis worldwide. Theory that this crisis was planned to bring major change to the world and monetary system, as every crisis has been an opportunity.
Here we are now with an economy in crisis, but with an incredible opportunity. It's certainly a major crisis, but it also offers us a unique opportunity, unprecedented opportunity to rethink and reset.
The great opportunity for reset, opportunity for us to receive for a reset.
President says, "A whole civilization will die tonight, never to be brought back again. I don't want that to happen, but it probably will."
Throughout history, every crisis resulted in more centralization of wealth and power. Examples:
- 2008 financial crisis: Fed invented quantitative easing (QE), buying trillions in assets to bail out themselves.
- 2020 global pandemic: Governments talked about the Great Reset. Klaus Schwab, founder of World Economic Forum, stated the pandemic is a rare but narrow window to reflect, reimagine, and reset our world. COVID was the crisis; opportunity was global coordination of economies, currencies, and centralized governments.
Your royal highnesses, excellencies, distinguished heads of state and government. The future is built by us, by a powerful community as you here in this room.
Pattern: Crises enable central planners closest to power to upgrade the system toward more centralized power.
Explores next crisis and opportunity to centralize more power. Hi, my name is Andre Jick. Come for the finance and stay for the next once-in-a-millennial lifetime event.
Economist Luke Gromen discusses net international investment position (NIIP), measuring America's financial balance sheet with the rest of the world: how much of US stuff foreigners own vs. how much of their stuff Americans own. Important in conflict because if foreigners own a lot, they influence value if they sell.
Currently -87% of GDP. Perspective:
- After first Gulf War: -7%
- After second Gulf War: -12%
- After 2008 crisis: -15%
US sold stocks, real estate, treasury bonds to China, Europe, Japan, anyone with trade surplus. Foreigners own $70 trillion in US dollar assets, including $9.4 trillion in US Treasury bonds.
Europe, Japan, China, Southeast Asia most dependent on oil through Strait of Hormuz, which is closed. They need oil priced in dollars, so need dollars fast from selling dollar assets: US stocks, bonds, treasuries.
Foreign central bank holdings of US treasuries at New York Fed down to lowest since 2012. In four weeks, tens of billions gone; just the beginning.
Selling treasuries raises yields, increasing cost of financing US $40 trillion debt.
10-year Treasury yield was in the 3s when war started, up in last 4 weeks. Danger zone 4.6-4.8%, entering debt death spiral: more expensive borrowing → bigger deficit → more borrowing → higher rates loop. At $40T debt, happens fast.
Jerome Powell said US debt growth rate unsustainable and ending badly. Not the $40T number, but accelerating growth burdens future generations.
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Let yields rise to 5-6%+: Crushes stock market (investors prefer guaranteed bond returns), tax receipts down, deficits explode, housing weakens, consumer spending collapses, banks take losses, recession. With -87% NIIP, triggers debt death spiral taking world with it.
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Print money amid rising oil prices: Fed does QE, buys treasuries, caps yields via yield curve control. Saves bonds but causes inflation in oil-shock economy. Luke Gromen predicts inflation making 2021 look mild: double digits or worse.
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Walk away from Iran: Announce victory and leave. World sees US fail to reopen shipping lane and retreat, realizing US lost power to restore order (policeman lost gun). Headlines like "Is Iran the US Suez Canal moment?" (1956 British Empire lost dominance at Suez, per Luke Gromen). Accelerates de-dollarization: countries price oil in non-dollars, weaker dollar, inflationary.
All outcomes lead to inflation, weaker dollar. US most likely picks option 2: print into oil spike. Fed balance sheet ($9T peak, shrinking) expands again. Money printer go brrr (QE).
Type 1 QE (2008): Fed bought toxic mortgage assets directly from banks at face value, cleaned balance sheets. No new money to broader economy, non-inflationary, no asset price spike.
Type 2 QE (2020): Fed bought from non-banks, corporations, pension funds. Sellers deposited money, banks created deposits, new money flooded economy → prices up (lag 12-18 months; March 2020 QE → 9% inflation 18 months later). Original QE economists warned of this; media said no inflation.
BlackRock presented Type 2 QE at Jackson Hole 2020, executed 6 months later.
Option 2 leads to higher inflation than 9% 12-18 months post-QE, worsening stagflation (slow growth + rising inflation).
Central planners' mindset: Problems
- AI/automation displaces jobs. Even in abundance utopia needing universal basic income (UBI), gives free time → people wake up, organize politically. Central planners want control, reliance, busyness.
- US $40T debt growing faster than economy, yields rising → cost exploding.
Solution: Privatize/distribute debt globally without inflation (can't export anymore). Upload to world via people. Every major corporation becomes bank, every app a wallet, every smartphone user an unknowing US creditor.
Solves debt and AI: digital currency funds government, controls UBI for AI-displaced, gives central planners on/off button for everyone's finances.
Example: Tesla digital wallet. Load dollars, Tesla invests in Treasuries (4-5% yield), keeps spread, gives rewards/discounts/charging credits/yield. All happy; US gets debt buyers.
Scale to Apple Wallet, Amazon, McDonald's, Google Pay with yield, airlines, retailers. All hold US Treasuries backing digital assets/rewards.
Genius Act legislation: Stablecoin issuers must hold US Treasuries dollar-for-dollar.
Tested with Tether ($120B+ US Treasuries, bigger than some countries).
Brands build trust in Argentina/Vietnam etc. Users get yields/discounts/utility vs. corrupt governments; unknowingly become US creditors. Offload trillions via CBDC legislation + 8 billion smartphones.
Downside: Sophisticated financial control grid. Tether tested: freezes wallets, sanctions addresses, flags for regulators. Line of code turns money off (e.g., Tuesdays, certain stores, speech, vax, meat purchases).
Scale to corporate wallets under US regulation/law > SWIFT (cuts off countries). Targets individuals globally, beyond local control (disable app stores/internet to fight).
No one forced; all already signed up.
Next crisis unknown: stagflation, hyperinflation, nuclear war, 9/11 event, false flag, energy lockdowns.
Protection (Katherine Austin Fitts): Secure real assets, use cash, build local, skill up, network.
Personally: Self-custody assets. Prefer physical gold/silver over ETFs (oldest money; hard to track/freeze; 1933 Roosevelt illegalized/confiscated). Self-custody Bitcoin over ETF. Teaches step-by-step (link below). Stay informed (system complicated by design).
Understanding directionally helps choices: hold outside grid. Do your own research. Portfolio at funvest.com.
Wee Bowl promo: Fund account → $60 cash bonus; over $100k → 4% match ($4k free), covers $100 transfer fees. SIPC insured to $500k; used 6+ years (link below).
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