TRUMP IRAN DEAL ANNOUNCEMENT AT 1:30PM - MARKETS ABOUT TO MOVE
In a Nutshell
Trump's 1:30 p.m. ET announcement on Iran deal talks could spark a market rally by easing tensions and dropping high oil prices, boosting inverse oil ETF SO while NASDAQ holds oversold support amid US insolvency concerns, rising labor costs (4.4% vs. 3.5% expected), and weak PMIs. External pressures like 7% mortgages, $4 gas threats, and $39T deficit refinancing needs push deescalation despite political rhetoric. Trader closed shorts for $700 profit, took small longs up $700, advising cautious positions sized for risk ahead of potential upside or selloff.
These notes were generated by AI and may contain inaccuracies.
Markets are dropping, but maybe not for long. NASDAQ market is slightly in the red. Trump is making a major announcement at 1:30 p.m. Eastern time, about 2.5 hours before markets close. Insiders expect him to announce further deal talks with Iran. If so, markets have reason for a nice uptick. Oil prices, currently incredibly high, are expected to drop with deescalation. Inverse oil ETF SO goes up when oil prices go down, presenting an opportunity for those willing to take the risk.
NASDAQ was making lower highs but not lower lows. Markets are oversold with good risk-to-reward. Trump appears willing to make a deal with Iran despite prior ultimatums. Stock market doesn't care about politics—only deescalation, which could lead to a rally.
United States is insolvent according to US Treasury, missed by media—Google search recommended. Markets saw a significant downturn in the first hour but are establishing support. With the 1:30 p.m. update, markets could end in the green. If announcement is worse than expected, markets could sell off due to uncertainty and fear. Markets love to pump, and Trump is good at it by highlighting positive economic outlooks.
US Q4 labor costs rose 4.4%, crushing expectation of 3.5%—rate cuts not happening soon, not bullish. PMI report: services PMI at 51.1 vs. expected 52 (worse); manufacturing PMI at 52.4 vs. expected 51.5 (relatively flat).
Iran's supreme leader agreed to negotiate with US, possibly the 1:30 update topic. Markets care only about the deal.
External pressures on Trump administration: high oil prices contributing to inflation, hindering Fed rate cuts; Middle East tensions. 30-year mortgage/10-year Treasury benchmark hitting 7%. US 20-year note back above 5% less than 24 hours after Trump mentioned peace talks. Threat of 7% mortgages and $4 gas is reality. Bond market says war is unsustainable.
US deficit is $39 trillion, much needing refinancing soon. Higher rates mean higher interest payments on borrowed money—government wants lower rates like individuals do. Trump begging Fed for cuts. Treasuries at record highs prevent cheaper refinancing—key pressure for deescalation despite manner.
Live session advice: don't fear shorting intraday but be cautious—markets ready to skyrocket. Closed all shorts, including overnight SQQ position of ~$30,000, took $700 profit. Took small long position, up $700. Markets oversold, primed for good 1:30 p.m. announcement recovery, but manage risk with position size if worse. Take calculated opportunities, avoid going all-in on valueless companies.
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