URGENT: TRUMP WARNS IRAN DEAL COMING SOON?!
In a Nutshell
Trump claims an Iran deal is imminent to justify easing oil prices and bond yields, while markets rally on the speculation despite 100+ days of stalled talks. The 30-year yield hit 7.45%, making mortgages unaffordable and pushing ~88% of early payments to interest on a $500k loan. Oil and risk assets sold off on the news, while the speaker lost $700 trading MSTR and warns the deal narrative is likely a yield-management tactic rather than a real breakthrough.
These notes were generated by AI and may contain inaccuracies.
The S&P 500 rose following reports that US-Iran talks have entered a technical stage with negotiations taking place in New York. The discussions have moved beyond initial diplomatic context into a more detailed technical phase. Technical experts joined the discussion in New York after an initial meeting involving US envoys Woodoff and Kushner. Iran's proposed 7-day plan to reopen the Strait of Hormuz if the US ends its blockade is being discussed as an accelerated version of a previously discussed 60-day process.
Oil prices began to drop immediately upon the announcement of these negotiations. UCO showed a sell-off based on speculation that a deal would occur. The NASDAQ experienced a significant upward push as the 30-year yield and 10-year yield began to rise higher. The speaker notes the pattern of the US appearing to make concessions when yields rise, aimed at bringing yields down, oil prices down, and reducing fear.
Five massive separate fires are burning across Russia following Ukraine's drone attack. The speaker notes this development will need to be monitored for continued updates.
The 10-year yield reached a 19-year high, serving as a benchmark for mortgages. The 30-year yield reached 7.45%. First-time home buyers face significant challenges with these elevated rates. For a $500,000 mortgage at 7.45%, approximately 88% of payments over the first three years goes to interest, with the remainder going to principal. Additional costs of homeownership compound the financial burden beyond just the interest payments.
Trump stated he is working with the Chinese president and has agreed to rename artificial intelligence to "super intelligence."
The NASDAQ market is considered overbought on the day. The speaker expresses skepticism that any Iran deal will actually materialize, noting that over 100 days have passed without resolution. The pattern described is that whenever yields rise sufficiently, Trump speculates on a deal to create the perception needed to drop yields, reduce uncertainty, and lower oil prices due to inflation concerns.
The Fed rate monitor tool showed probability of rate cuts dropping from 75% to 66% as oil prices continue to decline.
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The speaker had multiple trades in MSTR, initially going long and becoming a bag holder, then shifting to short positions. Started with a small short position, bought the dip which continued declining, then went long which moved against the position. Closed the long trade, the stock gapped up and became overbought, then opened a new short position. Currently down $700 on these MSTR trades. Yesterday's trading resulted in over $7,000 profit from trading both sides of MSTR.
The speaker prefers not to carry shorts over the weekend despite bearish market views, prioritizing weekend enjoyment and starting fresh on Monday. Markets are described as irrational enough to continue pushing higher even against fundamental concerns.
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The speaker poses a question to viewers about whether they feel comfortable going long at elevated market levels with optimism about a potential Trump-Iran deal, or if they believe Trump is speculating on deals to address bond yields and oil prices. Viewers are encouraged to share opinions in the comments section.
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