WARNING: BITCOIN SAYS $37,000 COMING SOON?
These notes were generated by AI and may contain inaccuracies.
Is now a great time to buy crypto or is there another 50% retracement? Some analysts speculate another drop down to $35,000 per Bitcoin. This video covers everything you need to know before buying Bitcoin.
There's a lot of uncertainty currently. Although not pro-crypto, the speaker acknowledges many are into crypto and thinks it's cool. Anyone can invest in any speculative asset they see value in. As a beginner guide, regardless of personal participation, some directional advice is shared.
When Bitcoin was at highs of $100,000 and $120,000, the biggest issue with the crypto community was encouraging others to leverage at overbought levels. The speaker doesn't mess with that and wouldn't recommend it even for safe stocks like Amazon and Nvidia at all-time highs. Nvidia at all-time highs is not a good deal.
Crypto hype ignores downside risk. People say it will go to $150,000 or $200,000 for no reason. Bitcoin went from $100,000 to $126,000, but risk-to-reward didn't make sense. Encouraging beginners to leverage at $110,000, $120,000, or even $100,000 (last year's price) was poor, as it hit lows of $60,000, down at least 40%. Now hovering around $70,000.
Markets pulling back make more sense to buy now than at $120,000 risk-to-reward wise. It's more calculated and intentional, but supported by actual crypto traders and investors since the speaker is not one.
Jack Ye (Trend Research) built a $2.6 billion ETH (Ethereum) leveraged long position at average $3,267. Ethereum now below $2,000. Sold $1.8 billion in past week at average $2,326 to repay loans. Now holds $44 million Ethereum, total net loss $750 million.
Tom Lee took a leveraged position, down 45-50%, $8 billion loss.
Michael Saylor with MSTR dilutes investors, borrows against shares to buy Bitcoin. MSTR average purchase price $76,000, down 59%.
These examples show why not to buy at elevated hype levels. Dollar cost averaging works for funds or those like Saylor without margin calls, but retail leveraged positions at highs lead to liquidation cascades unfolding past few weeks.
Majority of crypto traders are leveraged: $1,000-$10,000 account trading $20,000-$50,000 positions, some platforms 40x leverage ($10,000 for $400,000 position). Platforms liquidate at 5-10% drop from average purchase to manage risk. That's the snowball of sellers—they have to sell, not want to.
Number one mistake: too leveraged at overbought levels. Advice for Bitcoin believers: keep it simple, no leverage. Buying one Bitcoin now with cash (no leverage) gives better average than Saylor, avoids liquidation. If drops 50% from current, it's just your money. If you stomach it and believe in recovery, it doesn't matter.
Biggest issues: leveraged at overbought levels and inability to tolerate recovery time. Big players (Tom Lee, Michael Saylor, Jack Ye) down because they used investor funds to buy elevated, got greedy.
Don't have to be perfect—just look at data and do differently.
For $10,000 to invest in Bitcoin, split into three parts:
- Initial position
- Position during consolidation
- Third position during confirmation
Do it in stages, not all-in once. Confirmation of direction in your favor, not intraday. People said bottom at $60,000 after 24-hour move, but data shows otherwise.
Biggest indicator: trading volume. After 2022 downturn, 2023 rally saw volume uptick on Mumu (not Weeble). Recent activity spike nice but nothing compared to true momentum pickup. Do your own analysis.
Bitcoin down 6% since Trump's election (not political, indifferent).
No one buying Bitcoin past year would be up more than buying now. Not encouraging buys—not pro-Bitcoin or crypto—but see why people entertain it.
Historic Bitcoin crashes from peak to bottom:
- 2015: 87% downturn
- 2017-2018: 84% downturn
- 2022: 77% downturn
Currently ~52% from $60,000 lows, hovering 69,000-70,000. One intraday Friday recovery from $60,000 to ~$72,000 impressive, but doesn't define reversal. Crypto winter said to last 1-2 years—this is one day. Overall trend bearish: lower highs, lower lows.
Previous patterns: 70-90% retracement from highs. From $126,000, 70% retraces to $35,000-$37,000 (lower end, not 87/84/77%). Patterns repeat but not always.
US government projected to shut down within next week—how will Bitcoin react? Bitcoin called digital gold but not cyclical. Gold goes up when markets down; Bitcoin sells off before. Bitcoin down 50%, NASDAQ down 4-5%, S&P 500 down 3-4% from highs.
During bull market for NASDAQ/S&P 500, Bitcoin down 50%. If overall markets downturn, expect more selling pressure, leverage liquidation, panic selling on crypto—making 70% retracement realistic.
From $70,000, another 50% to $35,000-$37,000 possible. Can you tolerate 50% downturn worst case if bullish to $150,000-$200,000?
Speaker doesn't trade Bitcoin because doesn't trust it, industry, platforms. Makes money shorting MSTR when Bitcoin falls (MSTR from $500 to $100 highs/lows). LPP team shorts MSTR since 2024 highs of $543.
MSTR fundamentally doesn't make money (like GameStop). Hype and momentum possible when direction favors, but fundamentals matter when hype fades. Bitcoin drop means more MSTR downturn.
Shorting not for beginners, especially MSTR at oversold levels—higher risk. Doesn't encourage. Trades live mornings with LPP team, second link in description.
Appreciate time, share opinions in comments. Download Mumu trading app, first link in description. End year strong.
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