WARNING: Trump Just Threatened Iran - Peace Deal Cancelled?
In a Nutshell
Trump threatened Iran with escalated strikes and warned that closing the Strait of Hormuz would lead to the US taking control and collecting tolls, prompting Iran to walk out of peace talks in Switzerland. Iranian President Pezeshkian reaffirmed Iran’s refusal to abandon uranium enrichment, while Trump dismissed the stance and signaled further escalation. Markets are now watching for signs of renewed conflict or a last-minute deal as uncertainty grows.
These notes were generated by AI and may contain inaccuracies.
Supposedly a peace deal was close, but tensions escalated when Iran halted US talks in Switzerland after Trump threatened fresh strikes on Hezbollah's actions in Lebanon. Trump posted on Truth Social: "Iran must immediately stop their highly paid proxies in Lebanon for causing trouble. If they don't, we will hit them very hard again, just like we did last week, only harder." The attacks were expected, with ongoing disputes where Iran claims Israel attacks first while Israel maintains it is responding to Iranian attacks. Trump stated he told Iranian officials they "won't even make it back to Iran" if they close the Strait of Hormuz. Following this threat, the Iranian delegation left the negotiation table in Switzerland in protest. Iran called the threat a violation of the June 18th agreement which bars the use of threat or force.
Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian stated that Iran will not give up its rights for enrichment and that the US will be forced to accept it. This conflicts with the original reason for the attacks. The US has spent between $70 billion and close to $100 billion. It remains unclear whether this will lead to a peace deal given Iran's continued pursuit of enrichment.
Trump spoke with Fox News for more than 20 minutes, providing new insight on the Switzerland talks and Iranian threats. Trump stated the US may take over the Strait of Hormuz in the future if necessary and collect tolls, describing the United States as the "guardian angel" of the Strait of Hormuz and the Middle East. Trump stated: "we are now calling the United States the guardian angel where we will now collect tolls and up to 20% of the oil that passes through the Strait of Hormuz." This would involve the US taking 20% of the oil passing through the strait. Trump reacted to Iranian threats to close the Strait of Hormuz in response to Israeli strikes against Hezbollah in Lebanon. Trump told Iranian officials overnight: "You close it and you won't have a country" and "you won't even make it back to your effing country."
Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian stated: "We will not give up our right to enrichment and they too will be forced to accept it." He noted that Trump had made a "complete 100 degree turn" from saying Iran must "surrender unconditionally" and that Iran has "no right to do this" or "no right to do that." Trump responded directly: "he better watch his mouth. He better shape up or we'll take over the rest of the country."
Trump noted that escalations typically begin on Fridays over the past 9-10 weeks, with peace deals offered by Sundays before market futures open or early Monday. A peace deal was celebrated on Wednesday with markets rallying on Thursday. Markets were closed on Friday as the original signing was pushed back to today. The Iranian government has now left the negotiating table, creating uncertainty about whether the peace deal will proceed.
Markets are watching for overnight developments and NASDAQ and S&P 500 futures openings to determine whether they gap up in celebration or gap down due to uncertainty. If escalation continues with attacks and the peace deal falls apart, there could be more selling pressure. If Trump saves the situation, markets have reason to continue higher. BTC is being monitored as the only market currently open.
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