1.2 Million Job Cuts At All Time Market Highs (Here's What Happens Next)
These notes were generated by AI and may contain inaccuracies.
US employers announced 1.2 million job cuts in 2025, the worst labor market since the Great Financial Crisis. S&P 500 added trillions in market cap and hit new all-time highs. Most Americans believe we're in a recession, but data says otherwise.
1.17 million job cuts announced in 2025, second highest total in 16 years. November saw 71,000 layoffs, third highest monthly total ever. Hits all demographics, including highly educated workers. Share of unemployed with four-year degrees at 25.3%, record high, double 2008 levels and worse than 2020.
2025 job cuts (thick blue dotted line) exceed 2009 (skinny navy blue), 2020 (red), and 2022 (purple). Data through end of November 2025, recording mid-December.
60%+ of Americans believe we're in a recession. 68% cite inflation and cost of living. Half say family stressed about money. Real economy feels recessionary. Example: Longhorn Steakhouse parking lots and booths always packed despite high beef prices.
Poly Market recession probability by 2027 at 33%, lowest yet. US GDP grew 3.8% YoY in Q2, 1.6% first half 2025.
Thesis on Unemployment and Debt
Link to unemployment: people unable to service credit card debt will default first, unlike 2007-2008 housing crash.
63% of US GDP growth from AI-related spending. Data center spending tripled since ChatGPT launch in 2022; structures excluding data centers down 20% from 2023 peak. Two economies: AI-driven corporate boom and weakening consumer economy. Fed cutting rates third time in 2025 to help households, not big tech.
FinnViz S&P 500 map past 6 months: technology and communication services strong. Past 3 months flatter/more red; past week red. AI spending holds up global economy.
Gig Economy Shift
People enter gig economy (DoorDash, Uber Eats, Uber, Lyft) instead of unemployment.
Almost half of American adults say family would struggle financially within 6 months if primary income gone. Policy Genius marketplace compares life insurance. Example: 20-year $2M policy for $53/month. Head to policygenius.com/whiteboardfinance.
S&P 500 added $17T market cap since April, on pace for 29th record high of year. Sixth 35%+ 6-month rally in 30 years. Most think market down because personal economy shrinking while corporate explodes.
Past Advice
In Liberation Day videos: buy the dip. Invested $40-60k; S&P from ~5,000 April 7th to 6,700 now (hit 6,900 recently).
Top 10% US stocks = 76% market. Mega cap AI winners drag index higher. People without assets left behind. Savers are losers, losing purchasing power to inflation. Cash is trash, melting ice cube when fiat not tied to real assets.
Protect Purchasing Power
Need assets to protect purchasing power (PP).
Top 10% stocks chart: current like dot-com bubble (2000), higher than 2007-2008. Speaker graduated finance Dec 2010 into 10-11% unemployment (real ~15-20%). Sold cars post-graduation.
Rate Cuts in Weak Labor Market
With sticky 3%+ inflation, creates stagflation: nominal asset prices rise (stocks, commodities, real estate, Bitcoin). S&P to 7,000+ because largest companies dominate index.
Reshapes labor markets, GDP, capital flows, corporate profits, commodity demand, Fed policy. Wealth gap widens: asset owners vs. expense owners. Boomers bought houses for $50k, now $500-600k.
Critique of Consumer Habits
Avoid DoorDash/Uber Eats: eating slop, paying premium for laziness.
Only hedge is ownership: stocks, commodities, real estate, Bitcoin, precious metals, anything with productive/scarcity value. Don't need to beat Nvidia; just avoid inflation.
US private sector financial assets/GDP since 1951 at highs in QE era (QE1-4 infinity = money printing). Asset prices skyrocketed nominally; wages did not (2-4% raises vs. CPI). Examples: Costco tenderloin $32/lb; Honda Accord $75k; ribeye $843.
Final Advice
Own assets tied to financial system; they go up until they can't. Buy land (they ain't making more).
$67/month: full courses, weekly live streams. If can't afford, increase education/value, get higher paying job or start service. Living costs rising.
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