1.2 Million Job Cuts At All Time Market Highs (Here's What Happens Next)
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US employers announced 1.2 million job cuts in 2025, the worst labor market since the Great Financial Crisis. S&P 500 added trillions in market cap and hit new all-time highs. Most Americans believe we're in a recession, but data says otherwise.
1.17 million job cuts announced in 2025, second highest total in 16 years. November saw 71,000 layoffs, third highest monthly total ever. Hits all demographics, including highly educated workers. Share of unemployed with four-year degrees at 25.3%, record high, double 2008 levels and worse than 2020.
2025 job cuts (thick blue dotted line) exceed 2009 (skinny navy blue), 2020 (red), and 2022 (purple). Data through end of November 2025, recording mid-December.
60%+ of Americans believe we're in a recession. 68% cite inflation and cost of living. Half say family stressed about money. Real economy feels recessionary. Example: Longhorn Steakhouse parking lots and booths always packed despite high beef prices.
Poly Market recession probability by 2027 at 33%, lowest yet. US GDP grew 3.8% YoY in Q2, 1.6% first half 2025.
Thesis on Unemployment and Debt
Link to unemployment: people unable to service credit card debt will default first, unlike 2007-2008 housing crash.
63% of US GDP growth from AI-related spending. Data center spending tripled since ChatGPT launch in 2022; structures excluding data centers down 20% from 2023 peak. Two economies: AI-driven corporate boom and weakening consumer economy. Fed cutting rates third time in 2025 to help households, not big tech.
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