2024 Election Night Livestream with the Besties!
These notes were generated by AI and may contain inaccuracies.
Hosts introduce the live election night stream. Switch to gallery mode on YouTube to see comments. Reference to thermos containing liberal tears. David Sacks breaks in from a private club in Florida at Mar-a-Lago with Donald Trump Jr. (Don Jr.). Broadcasting via personal hotspot. Membership at Mar-a-Lago costs about $500,000, expected to rise post-election.
Don Jr. shares real-time ground color: Election still up in air, need high turnout. Preferable position compared to opponents. Georgia and North Carolina called for Trump. Unprecedented rural turnout; urban areas weaker. Pennsylvania's Lackawanna County tied (unheard of). Wisconsin: 51% of 18-29 vote to Republicans (unprecedented). Pushing 20% of African-American vote in Wisconsin. Don Jr. notes taking many selfies with African-American men per capita while traveling. Feels cultural shifts on ground, even outside rallies (e.g., airports in Detroit).
Opponents need massive overperformance on same-day voting, but much of their vote already baked in from early voting. Election day vote heavily favors Trump side in close states. East Coast covered well. Swung independents 20 points in North Carolina and Georgia since 2020.
If results hold, 75-80 million Americans signaling America First ideology, not traditional Republican Party. Push for JD Vance as VP to perpetuate this. Traditional party (e.g., Mitch McConnell) claims top Republican issue is Ukraine; Don Jr. disagrees. Surveyed over 100,000 Republicans live at events since Ukraine war: only 4 said Ukraine top 10 issue (none top 3). Reasons: One from Kiev, one worked there 15 years (ranked 10.5), one misunderstood double negative (actually pro-Trump), one worked at Raytheon.
Divergence between swamp/establishment Republicans and real conservatives. 2016 tapped into this; 2020 anomaly due to COVID weaponization. Base rejects traditional Republican warmongering.
Major issue: government spending. Department of Government Efficiency (DOGE) with Elon Musk and Vivek Ramaswamy. Chances of cutting $1-2 trillion from debt? Excited about potential; Elon as Einstein of era (outpaces NASA). Interest on debt now $1 trillion/year (bigger than GDP of most countries). Ron Paul recently engaged positively.
Elon cut 80% Twitter workforce, improved function. DC bureaucracy similar, but won't roll over easily; takes time/process. Trump 2016 mandate faced swamp resistance.
DC won't roll over. Trump honest on past mistakes: team selection. Don Jr. leading transition involvement to block slow-rollers and pretend allies (unelected bureaucrats). First time Trump spent night in DC was White House move-in. DC differs from business: people shank for articles/contracts even if aligned.
With 4 years experience, know good brokers vs. dishonest. Put in fighters willing to engage (few conservatives are). Everything last half-century abject failure. Mandate + exposure + transparency (via X) key. X made race closer by showing real-time events, enabling legal responses to polling issues. Transparency as disinfectant.
Congressman Ro Khanna (D-CA) joins. Calls for unity post-election: heal country, manufacturing in America, respect Elon's innovation. Hearing tough situation: need clean sweep of Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, Michigan (uphill but doable).
On Democratic ideology: ran on abortion rights, inclusive democracy. Needed more on economy, vision for good-paying jobs/manufacturing. Advocated Harris on podcasts like All-In, Joe Rogan.
Plea: Next president turn page, spend year doing for country. People sick of division.
Hot-swap Biden to Harris without full primary not mistake, but 100 days pre-election too short for VP to introduce herself. Adding primary month unlikely to change much. Post-midterms process debated.
Debt unsustainable; $1 trillion annual interest. Both parties guilty. Mitch McConnell told Trump no election lost by overspending; buy votes with unowned money. Trump not running again, can drive change with business team.
Ro Khanna: Huge issue. Ways to reduce deficit:
- Defense budget $1 trillion; 5 prime contractors (e.g., Lockheed Martin $1.7T F-35 cost overruns). Open to defense innovation, new tech companies bidding to reduce costs/compete.
- AI mentioned briefly.
Defense spending high due to virtue-signaling boundary conditions, not cheapest/fastest. Frame goals by outcomes, use companies like Anduril for low-cost protection. Mike Rogers (R-AL, House Armed Services chair), Ro Khanna, Adam Smith held bipartisan Silicon Valley hearing last month: need outcomes-oriented procurement, open beyond 5 primes.
System rigged: Silicon Valley rich (Elon, Nvidia, Apple); Arlington next-richest due to contractors/5 primes, cost overruns making Congress impotent (e.g., undelivered F-35s, weapons to Japan; Rahm Emanuel noted). Republicans/Democrats frustrated.
Bigger than Congress: generals want Raytheon board seats via spending. Trump on Air Force One (747s, ~$6B contract): demanded $4B cap, saved $1B with one call. Contractors reverted post-office as no accountability.
Government use it or lose it budgets: end-of-year wining/dining to spend. Incentivize saving could cut Air Force One >80% (private aviation cheaper).
In private aviation, you can build an incredible airplane for a lot less than $4 billion. SX, we haven't heard from you so far—what are your thoughts on the election results and DOGE? We're live on the All-In Podcast with 35,000 people watching. Worried about losing connection due to instability, need to get to the next place. Thank Donald Trump Jr. for appearing—Dawn is a tremendous asset to his father, people don't give enough appreciation. Not an agent of Russia, point of unity despite four years of hell claims from colleagues. Wall Street Journal article with fabulous comment—honest broker like father. Don has finger on pulse, campaigning, talks to people on ground, true America First agenda, not old Mitch McConnell Republicanism. Could agree with Ro Khanna on issues—motivated by issues, believes in dialogue, discourse, free speech, not warmonger. Appreciate David Sacks' forum, critical of overseas military. Went with JCal and Tim Ryan in Ohio with venture capitalists on investing in Ohio. Commitment: hoping VP Harris pulls it out, but if President Trump, figure out how to work together—people sick of division. Great here tonight, all have dinner and start working. Thanks Ro Khanna, John J. Sacks—call in from next location.
35,000 people watching live, surprise guests keep coming, high-profile people tonight. 9:30 Texas time, 10:30 New York, almost Trump o'clock in California. New York Times: Electoral College 297 Trump, 241 Harris, 83% chance Trump victory. Georgia very likely Trump, North Carolina likely Trump, Virginia/Pennsylvania/Wisconsin toss-ups—still chance for Kamala fans, Red Wave happening. NYT Trump 51-48. North Carolina very likely Trump 76% chance, 53-46. Virginia very likely Harris 49.3-49.1. Georgia real surprise, electoral team has Virginia leaning Trump 74% in real time.
Brought wine in thermos—2005 Colan. At office to tape. Updates incoming. Get MTH. Disclaimer: four years ago kicked off show permanently, second chance. Love Hel. Nick, world's greatest poker player, 7:30 guest. Dean Phillips joining. Surprise guest to blow minds. Poly Market odds—called election for months, funnest site to sweat. Launch own polls on Poly Market—two trillion federal debt after next presidential cycle, four years from now. Great market. Call them markets. Trade federal debt market. Other markets: if Trump/Vance wins, JD Vance VP pick; short-term on Secretary of Treasury, Secretary of State—might have inside info. Pennsylvania update: 50.94% Trump, 48.13% Harris, 56.5% in, tight.
Next guest: Dean Phillips, appeared on program, one of few Democrats brave enough in election season—podcast had major role, had two of three presidential candidates, Dean and Bobby Kennedy as Democrats. On episode 154, incredibly brave—called out Biden, first to say quiet part loud: Joe Biden not equipped for another term, cognitive decline obvious internally and publicly. Friend of the pod (FOTP). Brutal if Trump wins—didn't get fair shake, no speedrun primary after Biden swap.
Good to see you—many introduced to me via All-In, not MSNBC/networks, meaningful to country and me. Incredulous, predictable Harris won't win. Country predicated on competition, party went with selection over election—calling for competition, people want winners, duke it out, battle-tested, not anointments/coronations. Party blind to reality.
Two private corporations, duopoly colluding to prevent competition. Don't know how anointment happened after Biden dropped out—opaque, siloed, officers appointed by president/former president. Mission starting tomorrow to expose how Congress/public square works.
Would love to be part of DOGE, help any president/administration—care about principles, not politics. Help with debt, perverse incentives. Tragedy: best/brightest not running for office due to nonsense, devalued public service from police/teachers to Congress. First day in Congress 2019, in awe, then week later wondering how others got there.
DEI/wokeism good intentions initially, complicated matters, turned off voters—plus border security, overseas wars, lack of competition belief. Democrats to do post-loss assessment, probably no change.
If competitor struggling, invite more customers, not condemn—Democrats spent ~$1B last 90 days, lost market share. Professionalize: build enterprise/business with brand/principles, recruit embodying candidates, want to win—not next in line, checking boxes, far-left. Not just party—Democrats not voting in primaries, not participating/candidating. Party represented by far-left of mainstream; Republicans closer to mainstream (Trump character aside). Hate capitalism/entrepreneurship anti-American.
Many Democrats believe in free enterprise—those not benefiting from nonlinear returns feel rigged, whether inheriting or not accumulating. Grievance on both sides human nature. Minor capitalism modifications to reward more, provide capital for businesses. Fearful of income/wealth disparities causing democracy failures. Risk-takers building businesses providing livelihoods should be rewarded. Americans busting tails see wealth accumulation in few hands—manifests differently. In Sweden, billionaire next door ok with healthcare/schools/communities/crime-free; here, can't pay bills, no healthcare, crumbling schools/parks, crime. Focus less redistribution, more raise foundation.
Changed views on healthcare—traveled world, corrupt system: Pharma/insurers. Spent time with Bobby Kennedy, thoughtful conversations—some reasonable, some not truthful. Prefer health professionals with multi-billion org experience for agencies/cabinet. Pharma shares cash in Washington, against natural like psilocybin/cannabis they can't monetize. UnitedHealth Group (constituents' employer) takes $50B+ from system while people bankrupt on bills.
Wake up tomorrow, sun rises, half country freaking out—remind rubber hits road with all of us, build bridges, listen/learn from differing views. Take break, dedicate time/treasure/energy to more competition both parties, recruit great candidates. Status quo untenable.
Thanks for leadership, courage, profile in courage—told truth everyone knew. Tremendous asset to Democrats, rare, should covet/move up lest join Republicans—keep losing high-quality people. Infuriating told truth, obvious. Not end of career, beginning—if doesn't kill you, makes stronger. Throwing party December 7th Christmas party. Party if pass budget before year-end, bring wine—don't bankrupt country. Hope to have back for nitty-gritty.
Speaker jokes about sweater costing $9,450 and drinking 2005 Colan wine. Suits worth less combined. Trolling, not Joseph A. Bank or Shot Supply.
Phil, crack reporter from Wisconsin, right down the street from Madison. Hosts three questions: 1) How each plays poker (Chamath, JCal, Freeberg, Sachs). 2) Best poker player. 3) How Phil feels about them as close friend.
Best poker player: Chamath, won most money. Fredberg played a lot at California card clubs 10-20 years ago, fantastic but less recent play. Number two: David Sachs, won more than JCal, knack for game, good holding player, finds aces at cliffs, Mr. Magoos it. Half the time on phone playing chess with Peter Thiel, Jason calls him out.
JCal has best live reads and soul reads, not solver-approved but work because Freeberg always drunk. Jason plucky: doesn't give up, stands up to heat, bullies, courage in difficulties. Plays 10% less hands to improve, calls 7-9 suited every time, costly, be more aggressive.
Chamath glue that pulled them together, best poker player, wins all the time (not lately, rough 3-4 weeks since Jason left). Generous: hosts at house with dealers, wine (Freeberg drinks it, not to make money). Wife texts Phil drunk, embarrassing family in Italy, arrogant/stupid when drinking, podcast better when drinking.
Republicans locked on 49 Senate seats, leading in 4 of 5 key races, solid lock for majority. Fox News: Trump 216, CNN: 211, 270 to go. Leading Wisconsin 92%. Polymarket 91%. Polymarket CEO Shane joining soon.
Worst odds 6:1, people making 20-300 million on election. ARB 7-8%, bet 100 million one way/other on sister sites, pick up 7 million (moves market). Poker players made money last election, not this one. At 90%, lock for Trump (never hit 9:1 last time). French whale not stupid now.
Phil: Polymarket folks saw something. Guests: Haralabob (pro poker player), Coons.
Shane came to Chamath's house during pandemic, idea from bet Freeberg had with Diego on market direction. Shane called to start Polymarket. Phil sent $30k, would have 4% now (raised $300M = $12M), missed advisor role.
Would wear Polymarket hat at WSOP for 10 bps.
Pennsylvania: Trump 51.1%, Harris 47.9%, 71% in. Virginia: Harris 49.9, Trump 48.3. North Carolina: Harris 48, Trump 51, 86-93% in, hard for Harris. NYT 92%, Polymarket 90+% lock.
Jamal predicted 300 EVs, math at 290-301 (NYT 301). Jason saw by 8:30, not expected.
Amish turnout Pennsylvania: miles of buggies with Trump banners/flags, don't usually vote. Democrats disturbed farming, shut down practices, billboards in Dutch "go vote Trump", 100k voted. Not in polls (no phones, pollsters can't reach). Shy Trump voters. No landlines, young people.
Young men under 30 voted Trump (Elon effect, love innovation/entrepreneurship). Elon swung election.
Didn't vote Kamala. Confirmed voted, not revealing for whom (not presidential? Jokes Marianne Williamson). Skipped once-in-generation free speech defense.
Phil loves pros like Coons, Adrien Matos (no-limit hold'em). Greatest alive. Outfit: old Arya t-shirt, $100k birthday clothes unused, same tracksuit 20 years.
Jason Koon (friend of pod). Polymarket sharps: guy in circle bet enormous (7-9 figures, low eight) on Trump 3-4 days ago. Sentiment shifted to Kamala, then closed gap. Iowa survey.
Phil's characteristics: endearing, 2008 first met, played great, next day "Hey kid, learned a lot playing with me".
Koon 4th winningest ~$60M. Matos: winning high stakes decade, loves game, grind 5k even with billion. Chidwick (British Stephen) similar, acumen, longevity, compete against best.
Phil: won main event when Koon 3, still smashing, earned stripes. Respect for Helmuth, Ivey, Granillo.
Chamath staked Phil 15 years ago (no money upfront, max exposure 75-80k), won $3M straight. Almost beat Brian Rast in 50k. Last cash $1.1M, gave Chamath 50%, Chamath gifted back as LP in fund (Slack, Yum Yum, Bitcoin).
European guys take 18 min/bet, pick chips like robots vs. Phil raging/throwing radio pack. Koon loves Phil rages, makes him appreciate, not soft. Real as it gets, sometimes adds pizzazz knowing hilarious.
$200M+ volume today, all-time high for prediction markets. 94% Trump. Divergence from betting: arb is risk-free across markets. Polymarket 90+% global share, rarely arb elsewhere. French whale KYC'd, ex-finance, theories on polls, put money where mouth is.
Peer-to-peer, not house: every Trump trade has Kamala counter. Price = probability (pays $1), liquid diverse participants = price discovery. Intuitive trends as alternative news source.
Swing states liquid, one-size-fits-all order book/outcome shares. Markets filter info: likelihood Michigan/Kamala? Better than vote counts/pollsters.
Pollsters no skin in game, no consequence. Polymarket 10x better, proven.
Impact: people put money where mouth is, skin in game data.
Trump won North Carolina, -450 popular vote. CNN not called 50.6% Trump 87% in (Harris 47.9%). Polymarket likelihood, not vote %. CNN/Fox maps vs. Polymarket map (11:29 pm).
Former Speaker of the House Newt Gingrich joins the livestream. Gingrich assesses the evening: started moderately optimistic, became more optimistic half an hour ago watching state-by-state numbers. Views this as one of the great historic turning points in American history, feels like being in the middle of a historic moment. Involved in government and politics since August 1958; even with Reagan or Contract with America, never felt this way. Trump campaigned for nine years; the Establishment tried everything to destroy him from day one but he survived not because of himself—news media misunderstands—but because over half of Americans refused to let him go down. Millions said "we're with you." Trump personifies a movement for tens of millions, in the league of Washington, Jefferson, Andrew Jackson, Lincoln, maybe FDR.
This is not about Trump; this is where his genius is—coming up with MAGA: Make America Great Again.
Reasonable chance President Trump wins the popular vote as well as presidency. If so, enormous increase in his psychological ability to lead. Democrats run up huge majorities in California, Illinois, New York where Republicans don't spend money competing—if they did, Trump guaranteed popular vote win. Tonight's numbers suggest good chance he wins popular vote, giving same moral authority as Ronald Reagan in 1981 with largest Electoral College vote against an incumbent president.
Deep State and administrative state: millions of bureaucrats, lobbyists, reporters, academics who believe they have legitimate right to impose whatever they believe this week. Scott Rasmussen's work on "1%" details values of people who think of themselves as top 1%. Favorite story: guy in New York State had squirrel and raccoon; seven law enforcement officers attacked his house like drug cartel, seized and killed the animals.
How sick does a system have to be to send seven people out to kill a squirrel? Perfect symbolic example of how systems become sick.
Steve Bannon, architect of the MAGA movement, joins. Ideology on referendum: put American people, particularly working class and lower middle class, first—American citizens first. Pattern recognition: Hispanic families, Hispanic men; African-American men in Philadelphia, Detroit—looks like 25% of African-American men vote for Trump; majority of eligible black voters not voting for Kamala Harris, fed up. Transformational night. New voices: David Sacks, Elon Musk, Robert F. Kennedy Jr., Tulsi Gabbard, Tucker Carlson, Megyn Kelly, Danica Patrick, Nicole Shanahan.
Working class spoken; grassroots effort changed Republican Party architecture by registrations, all done by Trump. Get-out-the-vote: Trump campaign lacked money, supported by Elon Musk, Miriam Adelson, others, depended on massive grassroots turnout. Election integrity via precinct strategy by working-class people. Last four years, while Trump turned out by political class including Republican establishment, rebuilt populist nationalist party that won tonight. Add seats to Senate, take it; add couple to House; Trump in White House.
MSNBC/CNN whine about Electoral College, structural issues, fail to address working-class concerns: economic opportunities going away, worse schools, worse country, forever wars with sons/daughters serving. Democrats' answer: DEI and wokeism.
DEI good for more participation, especially working class, but top-down from intellectual elite/credential class jammed down—white, Hispanic, black working class rejected it, especially men condemned as patriarchy/Handmaid's Tale. Economic issues most important: invasion of 10-15 million invited by Harris/Biden to drive down wage inflation in unskilled workers. In prison for four months, taught and listened to young African-American/Hispanic nonviolent drug dealers: lack of opportunity drove them to sell drugs; detest Kamala Harris for mass incarceration, won't deport criminals.
Cultural aspects mattered, especially men rejecting DEI, but economics key. Upcoming: debt ceiling early January, tax cuts revert, budget when government runs out of money—Trump's finance team has huge task January-March.
Be relentless. Military background: naval officer eight years (four at sea, four Pentagon aide to Chief of Naval Operations); daughter West Point grad. Military-industrial-intelligence-legal-law-enforcement complex out of control, must deconstruct. Need tough people in DOJ for FBI/CIA; hit deck running, full transparency—American people must know/see what went on, major investigations. Deep State will thwart Trump ending American Empire, America First. Trump faces sentencing November 26 (three weeks from now); Judge Merchan likely gives prison sentence.
Excellent relationship with Trump; only major person with his back—laid out comeback strategy February 15, 2021 (Boston Herald story). War Room backbone/fighter for Trump. Sympathetic on policies. Adopt General Sherman's simple plan: aggressively executed. Handful of people: White House counsel, Chief of Staff, DOJ, National Security Advisor, NEC. Plan to attack financial/economic problems first (spending, debt, short-term financing ticking time bomb national security issue, not debated in campaign), deportations, global wars, Chinese Communist Party (railhead of all). Core team believing in these verticals/core beliefs.
Deport all 15 million. Start with criminals, insane asylums, but eventually all—either have a country or don't. Crushes opportunities for African-American/Hispanic men; that's what vote was about. Fed/Treasury wanted to take down wage inflation in unskilled labor, bragged; CBO says deportations knock off 1% GDP—don't care, put American citizens first. Show black/Hispanic communities we have their back, no preferred services for 10-15 million new arrivals—they'll have your back politically for 50 years. Tough, logical, partner with countries, not inhumane—but draw line: done to reform Democratic Party, bring votes, help Wall Street/corporations with lower wages.
Matters greatly. Dual track with financial/geopolitical/deportations/wall: reconvene J6 committee properly (Democrats ranking member/minority counsel)—reason Bannon went to prison calling first fraudulent. House investigate FBI, J6, 2020 election via Judiciary Committee/IG—adjudicate publicly what happened, chain of command, why Trump's orders not followed. Not picking scab but ensure never happens again to any party.
Talked to Trump first after prison, stay in communication. Zero interest in official role—War Room is media platform for activist MAGA base (GOTV, election integrity, precinct strategy). Gave one year (August 15); better outside supporting policies.
November 5, 2024: sweep for Trump emerging. CNN shows 22, not calling some; called North Carolina since last update, going to call Georgia (election team called 15 minutes ago, Chain's days ago). Polymarket map more useful than CNN/Fox—most downloaded app today. Legacy media disingenuous/cliffhanger like thriller movie; Polymarket free market, incentive-compatible.
Polymarket not yet for Americans—started with no money, built compliant way early (journey/learning). Now leverage/capital to expand; others fighting to legalize in US (noble, great for space/largest global player).
Create markets on anything/everything within reason. Effects: put money where mouth is (pollsters just pundits/entertainers, no skin in game—should monetize if good); tonight nails coffin on legacy pollster model.
Iowa poll <24 hours ago showed Kamala winning Iowa; Trump won by 14%. With Polymarket, don't care about her—smartest/stupidest people on Twitter give opinions; Selzer poll live, people say it changes everything, going to...
Moments like Kamala Harris's appearance will be etched in memory, but the real impact is who's winning the races. Iowa race is sensitive to abortion, potentially swinging differently, but markets cut through noise. People compete over all available information in the most liquid market like Polymarket to price outcomes accurately. Derive understanding from markets rather than assigning significance to single polls or opinions on X, which lead to confirmation bias.
Shane explains the market where Trump was ahead, trading up to 69.9%, then collapsed. Introduces Haralabob (friend of the pod, Herbas Vulgaris), owner of a great soccer team in Spain, phenomenal basketball bettor, poker player, smart thinker, great at Twitter.
In primary markets like Polymarket, initial impact from Seltzer poll, then over hours or 24 hours, market ingests information, finds equilibrium after frenzy and volatility. Shane built the website, doesn't claim asymmetric intel. Transparency shows participants, positions, buy prices in comments—new social networking format. Large bets like $250,000 warrant attention.
Market functioned perfectly this cycle, best information source despite misinformation and hit pieces. Closest to a free market for events, best way to follow likely winners. Big win for Polymarket as disruptor to legacy media.
Thanks Shane, invite back to list end-of-year markets, turn last year's bets into markets. Exciting to bet beliefs or track odds trends. DM Polymarket on Twitter with ideas; announcement coming soon.
True or False: Haralabob made more than $100 million, less than a billion betting basketball? True. On crypto? False, just getting feet wet in imaginary internet money.
True or False: Assistant GM of Dallas Mavericks under Mark Cuban? False, de facto GM.
Mark Cuban's political jump shocking. People asked if compromised. Theme: Epstein island or Diddy parties forced Democratic votes—absurd for JLo, Usher. Dark if true. JLo's Puerto Rico performance best acting since Gigli. Election odd; Haralabob always right-leaning except COVID period when followed herd, got vaccine, wore mask (reasonable to avoid killing old people).
Read Great Barrington Declaration by physicians/epidemiologists from Harvard, Stanford, Oxford—reasonable ideas, made out as quacks. Policy switched after.
Cuban blocked Haralabob on Twitter but messaged/emailed—didn't want to see posts. Believes Trump bad person since forever, supported in 2016, then bad business deals—but Trump was president 2016-2020. Believed Kamala better choice, arguments unreasonable.
Haralabob bet on Polymarket. Seltzer had stellar reputation (Nate Silver: "WOF I don't want to be sitting across the poker table from Seltzer"). Odds dropped, but her video interview made her seem clueless (didn't know D/R). Bought Trump at 50 cents, closed high, considered Kamala at 35 cents. Overexposed in Bitcoin, which tracked Trump's odds.
Breaking: Bitcoin at all-time high $74,000. Prediction markets accurate, but Bitcoin, Doge (up 35% to 20 cents), Mexican US Dollar exchange led—truest, most liquid markets.
No big election position, running humble football team.
Rumor: Guy bet Trump won 2020, would overturn in Supreme Court at 10-1 odds; Haralabob took other side, made large money. Haralabob disciplined gambler, no Kelly Criterion for past elections. Would lay 11-1 on fall of Republic. Texas Supreme Court brief had spelling/punctuation errors, flawed logic (Nixon won states and lost election).
Rumor from Phil Helmouth on podcasts. Takeaway: Bullish on America (not American, doesn't live there). Both sides claimed democracy on line: Elon on Rogan—importing citizens for Democratic votes ends Republican chances; Oprah said Trump win ends democracy.
Fan of Trump (changed a bit, honest, consistent 20 years vs. Kamala's versions). Likes Calley Means, Casey Means (health impact), RFK, Elon.
Shoutout Cali and Casey Means. Aaron Levie (favorite white dude for Harris, beta males for Harris, funny tweet). Favorite Kamala supporter in Silicon Valley.
Heading to convention center for Trump's victory speech. Polymarket still 33-1 for Kamala, room to buy Robin contracts. Robinhood blocked, overspent cornering Kamala market, dollar averaging. Wait till Jan 20 or Jan 6. Riding to capitals in all cities if needed. Hope to deport JCal (only one born here).
Has picture of ballot, might flip it.
If Trump wins, Democrats slid from pro-business/pro-tech. Regulations block innovation (e.g., pro-Democrat climate friends can't proceed). Better economic record: unemployment, markets, global status—not messaged well. Reasonable arguments on inflation.
Changes for Democratic party: Less regulation, easier business, better tax policies, address culture wars, SF/California crime, schools, math issues.
Capable? Party mixed views, big tents cut randomly. Pro-Kamala due to Republican issues. Democrats fracture on Israel, education. Centrist leaders waking up.
Centrist leaders in the party are waking up and moving more to the center. This election serves as a wake-up call for those who moved too far left. Not having a primary made no sense. They went full woke.
A longer primary process was needed, not a condensed one. Pragmatism dictated rallying behind someone for the national stage with three months left. Real postmortem requires going back a year or year and a half for robust conversation on Biden dynamics. No one wanted to speak truth about Biden's cognitive issues. Dean Phillips was on earlier. Everyone saw Biden wasn't a good candidate against Trump, one of the most disliked political figures. Democrats could have had an easy victory with a proper process and good candidate.
Biden issues obvious over a year ago. Attended Biden event in May talking high-skill immigration in the afternoon—not 10 p.m. Theory of sundowning with Alzheimer's or dementia, becoming irritable at night. Example: Al Z Russell Terrier had sundowners; Haralabob posted pictures of his Jack Russell Terrier on yacht (passed during COVID); now doodle on yacht.
Reed and others met Biden in person this year, insisted nothing wrong, he should continue. Met Biden, talked high-skill immigration, speech was fine—not inspiring, but no obvious dimension problem. White House dynamics unknown. New campaign lacked time for message, dialogue, rallying, options—something should have been done sooner than three months ago.
VP pick postmortem: should have been Shapiro, more dynamic. Like Shapiro. How could not pick Tim Walz, one of most qualified politicians ever? Walz doesn't own home. Postmortem won't be Walz. Walz is dynamic, like John Stewart appeal to median Democrat voter. Party lost footing on job-related socialist-adjacent topics. Message should be: build more, accelerate, more science, drive AI, go to space, build businesses. Some landed, not enough time. Kamala albatross unrelated to her.
Does DEI and wokeism allow doing job better, worse, or same? Fair companies thoughtful on hiring, promotions, board makes sense. JD Vance interview: when wife had first child, workplace hard; advocate easier family-friendly work environments. Creating fairer environments logical. Protesting every aspect went too far. Slippery slope. Bring back to center. Concept weaponized.
Weaponized by people with different plot for country. Examples in Twitter: oppose high-skill immigrants, call "Jew boy"—not from left. Exploiting wokeism for different vision. Find 80% that unites. Optimism Elon could drive it. Elon's companies represent ideal America. Extreme anti-woke/DEI voices not aligned with that meritocracy style. Replies to pro-talent tweets call it "Jewish woke globalist ideology." Weaponized to make companies reel back. Meritocracy essential.
Meritocracy at sake of diversity? No trade-offs; blend together. Equity component upset people with expanded definitions. Equal outcomes impossible; merit leads to different outcomes.
Successful people hated. Started multi-billion dollar company out of college. Deserve success achieved? Upbringing contributed. Improve environments for all to build companies, innovate—not race thing. Oppressor-oppressed campus ideas insane, went too far. Inclusive organizations, thoughtful hiring reasonable.
Hard to do business in US? Lucky in bits/land of bits. Crisis in energy, transportation, EVs, autonomous—endless state/federal regulation loops. Kamala messaged cutting red tape, beat China, move faster—not expansive due to time. Trump outcome: Elon superpower to drive faster. Apply surgically, not total hammer. Thoughtfulness for fast lanes: approve drugs faster, build houses (insane zoning), transportation/shipping/logistics. Create jobs, need more immigration for talent.
No more guests. Three hours in. Jason tired? Haralabob like Ted Lasso with soccer team. In Spain; Valencia/Barcelona devastating floods. Football team's Twitter raising money; matching up to $500,000 until Monday. Donations to Red Cross. Pledges: $5,000 each from several (Aon, Freeberg, Chamas).
San Francisco voted Daniel Lurie for mayor, friend of pod. Transformative Board of Supervisors candidates. SF making resounding change—garbage dump, hope fixed. Oregon/San Francisco policies studied: prosecutions, open-air drug markets, legalizing hardcore drugs don't work. Evidence clear, no Ivy League needed.
Implementers climb Democratic ladder. Soros kid collects politicians like Pokemon cards on Instagram. Marijuana scourge, not cool, causes damage—not parents' marijuana. Legalizing cannabis fine or decriminalize, highly regulate.
Donate via Haralabob Twitter (retweet). Try getting Nick/Sacks on from Trump HQ. CNN calls Georgia for Trump. NYT: Harris 210, Trump 230—pretending close. Trump 246 now. Speeches soon. Speculation: Treasury, State, HUD, press secretary roles.
Empathy for JCal after four years Kalot. Issues with Trump: January 6, election denial. Not down with Kamala appointed. Binary choice. Teasing vote reveal. Concerns: Bannon wants deport 15 million starting tomorrow. Who does Trump listen to—Elon, Sacks, YTH or darker? Elon not fine with 15 million. JD Vance at All-In Summit: start with 1 million criminals, work way up.
Illegals not to blame—told they could come via open border from shitty conditions seeking better life. Empathy crucial; many fortunate immigrants (three of four Besties immigrants, Elon immigrant). Not flippant—people's lives, hard issue.
Complicated, empathy required. Straightforward: stop border influx immediately. Deport criminals now. Humane, compassionate process for rest.
Refounding moment to reset administrative class who think superior to Americans. Felt personally.
Speeches started. Harris co-chair: she will not speak tonight. Virtually guaranteed.
Point that Trump is going to be the 47th president of the United States. Trump gonna give his speech now? On the thing right now, haven't seen him yet. Nick, is Saak going to be able to join again? He didn't answer my call and put me on voicemail, so no. I'll call him again. I'm going home, going to bed, we'll call it. Thanks for coming on, Harala, Bob, everybody. Night guys. Harala, Bob, thank you bro. You guys enjoy. You guys want to do a reflection on America on Election night? Sure, Jam, go ahead you start. See you guys, ciao, see you later. Goad, Freeberg. Tomorrow's going to feel like a very different day.
Want me to show some tweets I saw tonight that I thought were interesting? Want Freeberg to share his opinion. Freeberg, let's hear it. I voted for RFK. You did not vote for RFK, you voted for Trump, we know you don't like socialism.
Speaking on the politics of what took place over the past year and a half: Democrats let the Biden thing go on too long, should have run a speed primary 100%. VP pick was off, everything else seemed pretty well executed campaign. Hard-hitting messages, really clear, but messages didn't resonate as strongly as those from the Trump campaign.
Worry about dropping all income taxes while keeping entitlements fully funded. Big question marks ahead for the next four years, so buckle up.
Shath, any final thought? What did Freeberg just say? Buckle up. Tired. Word salad. Not afraid of what has been or what could be, not burdened by tonight's livestream or what happens on December 7th at the Holiday Spectacular. Going to the inauguration, Jam? Jal, you can be his plus one. N will be my plus one, reflection. She invited me, I'm her plus one, so plus one plus one.
Elon Musk from Mar-a-Lago made a huge difference. Trump and Vance went on lengthy podcasts like Rogan, All-In, and Lex, appealed to the normal person. Nothing would do more damage to Kamala's campaign than going on Rogan and hitting ARs two or three, she would melt, be a melted puddle of nonsense.
Democrats could not field a candidate that would beat Trump, who was incredibly unpopular as a candidate, speaks volumes to how Democrats run their primaries and institution. Need serious soul searching as to why they kicked really successful people out of the Democratic Party and don't have an inclusive tent. Never felt more included than by the Republican Party, courted 100 ways by Republicans and zero from Democrats. Doing a terrible job of courting Silicon Valley technologists, venture capitalists, and builders in the country. Heard that tonight from a number of people. God bless America.
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