BITCOIN IS BACK $61,000+ (LIVE)
These notes were generated by AI and may contain inaccuracies.
Bitcoin just hit $61,000, up 7% over the past 24 hours, clearing key levels. Last Friday's stream had technical difficulties due to wrong Wi-Fi and OBS settings, now fixed. Stream health is excellent with 41 viewers.
Bitcoin at $61,304. Bought big chunk in mid-30s ($34,000-$35,000) in June around Bitcoin conference. Price took off around 11 AM Eastern. Poll: Will Bitcoin hit $100k by year-end?
Follows Blockworks Market Intelligence by Will Clemente. Studies on-chain: wallets holding Bitcoin, duration, whales vs. retail vs. institutions vs. never-sold wallets.
Bitcoin at edge of realized price distribution: 0.68% of supply last moved above current price, little resistance/overhead supply upside. Big wallets scooping up in 30k-40k range, demand > supply. Flat for months around prior range highs (purple) and lows ($30k-$32k) from May breakdown.
Expect huge green candles. October start: ~$17k-$18k move in two weeks. Featured in Business Insider as Bitcoin maximalist predicting $100k by year-end; 65% in poll agree.
SOPR (Spent Output Profit Ratio, entity-adjusted 7-day MA) shows continued upside, confirming bullish trend.
Aside from Huobi, futures curves in contango (slopes positively, farther contracts higher). Exchanges: pink=Binance, orange=Bybit, yellow=Deribit, light green=FTX, green=Huobi, blue=OKX. Exponential rise, especially Deribit.
Creates cash-and-carry arbitrage: buy spot, sell futures. Annualized 3m future basis at 14.8% (far from earlier peaks). Futures ETF could bid CME curve aggressively, enabling US funds (CME lagged overseas like Deribit/FTX/Binance/Bybit due to no leverage, cash-settled).
Orange line: annualized rolling futures basis all exchanges; gray: USD price. Correlation dropped November 2020 (last explosion), broke May 2021. From Glassnode.
Decrease in crypto margin futures: less downside convexity, shorts more squeezable (no hedge via collateral). May reverse at all-time highs. Chart: orange=% futures open interest (margins all exchanges), gray=price; breakdown May 2021.
Told reporter $100k possible by year-end (tongue-in-cheek but meant it). Instagram tirade on US Bank "stop lattes/avocado toast" as red flag talking points.
Shoutout: Chandler David Smith (brother and wife have cancer).
Think net worth as pie: % cash, bonds (speaker: 0%), stocks, real estate, crypto, precious metals, collectibles. Sleep-well-night portfolio: allocations you won't panic if go to zero (e.g., crypto 10-15%). Within crypto pie: speaker 90%+ Bitcoin, rest Ethereum/Cardano (spec plays). Diversify; risk only what you can lose.
Tips appreciated for daughter's onesies/college or servers.
Instagram post: "When you realize you should have listened" with crying frog/Pepe at $60k.
Recommended reading order:
- The Bitcoin Standard (pushed Jan 2020)
- Other videos: Bitcoin vs gold vs fiat (Jan/May 2020), institutions buying (Dec 2020, ATH past $20k, MassMutual).
Channel since Nov 2017: Mall interviews on Bitcoin/Satoshi; low views on Austrian economics.
Not guru: no sports cars, miniskirt wife, courses. Posts explain why Bitcoin moves in current climate.
Super Chat thanks: helped buy home; watches with daughter. Recent video: 7 charts, PolicyGenius ad with newborn daughter (life insurance).
Ignores negative comments (e.g., "shaking baby" from non-parents); focuses on 95-97% positive.
Followed 1.5 years; DM'd for podcast (declined, busy).
Stock-to-Flow (S2F): Stock=existing supply, Flow=new supply/year (like gold mining). Bitcoin same via block rewards.
Model (463-day): Current price should be $107,262 (actual ~$57k-$61k). Historically accurate (blue line followed).
Next halving 2024: $180k, then parabolic. Past halving May ($8k), now $61k.
Colors: days to next halving (red far, blue close, yellow post-halving explosion). Currently yellow: parabolic to $100k by year-end.
Pauses stream to read chats and comments. Appreciates viewers watching and sharing. Notes channel has over 700,000 subscribers but live streams get 388 viewers. Emphasizes being part of the 388 is special because predictions have been accurate for about four years.
Viewer asks how to value Bitcoin, knowing 100 methods for stocks but not crypto with no substance backing it. Responds that's not true: Bitcoin is backed by thermodynamics, electricity, taking time and energy to store into the hardest money ever created.
Advises: if you don't understand Bitcoin, there's a Balkan phrase—better to let people think you're dumb than open your mouth and confirm it. Recommends bullish case books to read in this order:
- Medium article by Vijay Boyapati
- Inventing Bitcoin by John Pritzer (had on podcast)
- The Bitcoin Standard by Saifedean Ammous
These books are free; not compensated. Leaves them on screen while catching up on questions.
Viewer has signing bonus coming in weeks, putting some into more crypto. Reminder: there's crypto and then there's Bitcoin—big difference. Bitcoin is crypto; crypto is not Bitcoin.
Comments on commercial being cute, being a dad. Notes propaganda against having kids; kids are the greatest wealth.
Plan B interview on Pomp's podcast got taken down—crazy. Thanks Noor at Blanc for content over the years.
Predictions from June were spot on—time traveler.
Plan B podcast was with Preston Pysh and American Huddle, not Pomp—nailed price prediction. Actually with Jeff Booth on What Bitcoin Did podcast, September 2020. Jeff Booth is a legend, interviewed him. Predicted current prices unbelievably well. Commented on it nine months ago; Preston nailed all-time high prediction.
Recommends watching/listening to full episode (1 hour 48 minutes). Clip: discusses competitive landscape of nations with Bitcoin increasing over next 1-3 years. Another clip: surface-level arguments like anyone can create altcoin with no backing; 99% of altcoins made to enrich others—be careful.
Instagram picture over last 10 years: Bitcoin returned 1.4 million percent, then Tesla, Nvidia, Netflix, Domino's, Amazon, Microsoft, Apple, Google, S&P 500, bonds, gold (3%). Peter Schiff ripping hair out.
Caption: savings accounts earned 0.01% to 2.5% APY—savers are losers.
Savers are losers because purchasing power eroded by inflation. Fed cuts rates to zero, savings at 0.3% while prices rise 3-6%—losing purchasing power by saving instead of investing.
Not calling savers nerd losers; they're disciplined, but not smartest in this environment.
Advice: don't invest every penny—picture net worth as a pie. Percentage in cash for savings, emergency, opportunity. At least 3-6 months savings for emergency:
- Single: 3-4 months
- Significant other: 6 months
- Family: 6-12 months
Then go crazy with investments.
Streaming during work hours gets more views later; streaming because sick, can't work. Last Friday streamed at 2-3 PM before James Bond dinner with wife.
James Bond movie: gives 6.8/10 generously (3.4/5). Villain sucked—like emo soy boy. Action scenes cool, but more action movie than James Bond.
Thanks big Super Chat donor who bought Bitcoin at ATH due to understanding/confidence from content—no spammy garbage, solid advice.
Thumbnails/click-through rate issue; plans super clickbaity with rocket ships.
Savers are losers phrase explained again: foundation is cash for opportunity/emergency (pyramid base), then riskier up top.
Poll: 65-35 with 500 votes on Bitcoin hitting $100K.
Instagram: video on seven big trends—central banks raising rates (Switzerland last 6-7 years ago) to taper inflation.
Market cycles question: will bear markets continue as previous or minimal with adoption? Cycles sharper/steeper due to delaying recessions with stimulus (March 2020 example).
Austrian economists: delaying inevitable (recession/crash) with easy money, money printing, low rates prevents natural cycles.
Forest fire analogy: natural, destroys but reintroduces nutrients via carbon for new growth. Stimulus prevents this, leads to bigger crashes.
S&P 500 chart: pre-2008 crashes minimal/smooth/elongated; post-2008 (money printing) shorter/sharper (2008 ~50% drop from 1500 to 735; 2018 rate hikes; 2020 COVID).
13-year bull market from printing. Cycles steeper if continues—but asterisk.
Dollar value from international demand (e.g., Colombian factory borrows USD over pesos). Backed by petrodollar (Saudi Arabia deal post-Bretton Woods, off gold standard) and military securing oil transactions.
Stops when demand falls: Russia stopped investing, China slowing. World reserve currency now, but shifting to Bitcoin-denominated cash settlements.
Plan B (100 trillion USD) mocks money printing—shows real $100 trillion Zimbabwe bill.
Funny video with baby in pumpkin outfit: "Get the Policy Genius, yeah we saved so much money... I'm shopping at Policy Genius." Lights too bright. Some commented poorly on shaking baby.
Ran into Paul from Everything Money (lives 15 min away) before James Bond—rainy, not stain. Good stocks channel, real entrepreneurs/real estate investors worth a lot. Some criticize for bashing other channels.
CNBC article clip: x-axis age of family head, y-axis median/average net worth.
Viewer: tell my mom I'm not a loser (rap lyric: piece of crap but mother loves me).
Balance cash (losing purchasing power) vs. dip buying: percentage of pie—personally 15% of my
Holds 15% of net worth in cash for opportunities, defense, and offense. In 2012-2013, people bought houses for $30-40k renting for $1200/month, now worth over $100k in Class B suburb in Cleveland—not the hood or war zone. Used HUD auction websites and county sheriff stops to buy houses in cash. Highly recommend keeping cash for these purposes.
Scrapping Whiteboard Finance University monthly fee model (access to courses, live streams). Courses take time and effort. Instead, offering 1-2 core courses on investing and personal finance. Purchasing courses gives mentorship access: private Discord, direct access, private live streams. Separate price point for Discord monthly fee for conversations.
Catching up on chats, appreciating questions. Sharing stream on Twitter and Instagram: "We are streaming live on YouTube come join." Legends leaving huge super chats, e.g., $100 from someone who bought Bitcoin at $8k.
Only invest what you can afford. If you have debt or no emergency fund, get rid of those first. Don't plan to sell by end of year—not smart. Use Plan B stock-to-flow model; need patience. Crypto hype (e.g., Dogecoin) is gambling, not investing—go to casino for that (poker, craps, roulette as entertainment). Bitcoin is staple of portfolio: buy and hold regardless if it goes to zero or $1M; dollar cost average (e.g., $50/week or $10/week). Only 21M Bitcoin ever, 8B people soon.
Bitcoin at $61.8k, up a few hundred from stream start. Avoid constantly checking price or scalping—bad habits. If held since inception, not losing. Need super diamond hands.
Favorite Bitcoin mining stocks: MARA, HUT, RIOT (Riot classic, staple; people buy forever). Doesn't personally purchase mining stocks.
Nasdaq letter on Valkyrie Bitcoin Strategy ETF (Jimmy Song tweet)—huge, allows Bitcoin traded as ETF. For quasi-Bitcoin ETF, buy MicroStrategy (holds 90k+ Bitcoin). Doesn't invest in miners or Grayscale (GBTC)—prefers holding Bitcoin directly.
Bitcoin 10-15% of net worth, replacing precious metals.
$100k houses response to Southern California commenter: move—real estate unaffordable there. Lives in Cleveland suburb: big house, nice suburb, great schools, no crime, costs less. Amenities of big city, Lake Erie 15min away, international airport 10min (get anywhere). Weather sucks 5 months, but beautiful weather in CA 365 days.
S&P 500 only up past 10-12 years (blip fixed by money printing). Markets frothy/overpriced as old-school value investor with finance degree—looks for undervalued companies/assets. CPI 5% past 4-5 months, savings 0.3%. Bonds/long-term treasuries barely keep up with inflation. Buy total stock market index fund, dollar cost average or lump sum for 10-20-30 years.
Fear of Japan Nikkei: bought at 26,600 in March 1991, didn't hit again until Dec 25, 2020—30 years. US risk: stagflation, become next Japan (zero/negative rates, aging population, demographic problems). Watch Princes of the Yen documentary by Dr. Professor Richard Werner on Japan central banking, US/Japan history—highly recommend. Trying to get Werner on podcast; he wrote the book.
USDC stablecoins on Celsius earning 8.8% (not FDIC insured). Tether suspect. Stablecoins mimic USD (e.g., buy USDC with cash for higher yield than savings). Not comfortable with methods for high returns—not FDIC/SIPC insured.
Instead, put $125k in M1 Finance portfolio of 4 ETFs/funds (earmarked for 6 months/sooner), earning ~7.75% (SIPC insured). Better than stablecoins for similar yield with insurance.
Cash 15%, Bitcoin 10-15%, real estate 40%, equities 35%, crypto/precious metals 15%. Establish discipline/criteria, track net worth to avoid FOMO (e.g., Bitcoin from $34k to $61k).
Leverage: risky, never recommend unless real estate that cash flows (good numbers). Pay off debt first. Get rich slow.
12-month crypto portfolio: hold Bitcoin long-term. For speculative: Cardano, Ethereum (bought at $300-400), altcoins like Solana (exploded, huge for gaming). Prefer proof of work over proof of stake (PoS recreates central banking; PoW shows effort).
Buy $10/day Bitcoin for 10+ years: smart, but fees high—use Coinbase Pro (low fees). Most altcoins trash; Ripple, Ethereum thoughts shared.
Bitcoin relative transfer volume by size: 0-1k (orange), 1-10k, 10-100k (yellow), 100k-1M (light green), 1M-10M (middle green), 10M+ (dark green). Rising volume correlates with price up/down. Whales influence, but Bitcoin harder to manipulate as asset class grows. Altcoins like penny stocks—manipulated by YouTubers (buy options/shares, pump, dump on retail).
Entity data: whales accumulating since July (100-1k BTC cohort offset selling by 1,000+ BTC). Large buyers active. 100-1k BTC supply only up/spiked since April. Whales accumulate, retail FOMO/weak hands.
$280k from condo sale, no debt: establish net worth percentages (e.g., 15% cash, 40% real estate, 35% equities, 15% crypto). Track to stay disciplined, avoid FOMO.
Common in commercial real estate: finance project, stabilize, borrow against value tax-free (refi). E.g., senior living facility costs $12M, stabilizes to $16M (NOI $100k at 5% cap rate = value; 80% LTV loan pulls $8M tax-free). Live off it, property pays loan. Wealthy families heavily in commercial RE. To dispose: 1031 exchange.
With a 1031 exchange, if you sell a property, you can forego capital gains taxes by buying another like-kind and similar property within a certain time period. This defers all capital gains taxes. When you pass away, your heirs inherit the property at the stepped-up cost basis. For example, if a property goes from $5 million to $20 million, heirs get it at the $20 million mark with no capital gains taxes owed.
Stream had 198 viewers, experiencing choppiness due to mid-roll ads every two minutes causing crashes. Turned off monetization to fix it. Apologized to viewers; some saw ads, some did not.
Overarching thesis: Purple line shows big entities and big wallets holding Bitcoin and not selling. Transactional activity picking up to levels not seen since May. Reflects lack of full-blown speculation; large transactions dominate volume, indicating retail hasn't entered. Supported by Google search trends and Coinbase app downloads.
Number of active entities (14-day moving average) peaked in January during stock market events like GameStop and AMC. Follows trend of finance content on the downswing.
Macro remains highly bullish long-term. HODLer supply shock soared to new all-time highs. Long-term holders (LTHs) will eventually distribute, buying weakness and selling strength, as in 2017 and 2020. Be fearful when others are greedy, be greedy when others are fearful.
Supply shock ratio (chart) shows inverse relationship with Bitcoin price (gray line). People bought at all-time highs, got scared at recent January low around $19K.
ETF approval almost inevitable; hit $64K earlier this year without full euphoria. Techdev on Twitter has great RSI chart for Bitcoin entry/exit (doesn't personally trade, long-term HODLer). Bitcoin may change humanity by fixing money, exposing broken system where politicians become multimillionaires on $100K salaries by front-running trades on bills they run.
Wouldn't increase Bitcoin to 50% of net worth as it would confirm thesis at too expensive USD price. In hyperbitcoinization, everything denominated in Bitcoin (sovereign wealth funds, KitKat bar), it becomes larger portion inevitably. Expect propaganda like energy usage claims.
US monthly rent up 16.7% year-to-date (Charlie Bilello, @charliebilello). Latest video "Seven Charts Sunday" on compoundadvisors.com analyzes rental sustainability—what percent of income does $2K rent eat? Advice: Move if possible (family/job ties make it hard); consider other markets. Buy house to keep up with inflation; renters pay property tax increases indirectly. No free lunch.
Meet three good financial advisors, commit to one fiduciary, fee-only (best interests, no upselling products like Northwestern Mutual, Morgan Stanley). Show me the incentive, I'll show you the result.
Prayers for newborn daughter to have healthy, happy life (1000% healthy so far, no complications). Pray for well-established family units; control local level (family, kids, friends). National politics like professional wrestling. Golden rule: Do unto others as you would have done unto you.
Biden proposes IRS track bank accounts with inflows over $600 annually (balances under $600 exempt) to crack down on wealthy tax evasion, fund social spending. Trojan horse for surveillance and technocracy, like central bank digital currencies.
If worried about cracking down on tax evasion by the wealthy, why is the threshold $600? Logistically, millions of accounts have greater than $600. To surveil the wealthy and prevent tax evasion, threshold should be $10,000 or $50,000, not $600. This indicates surveillance under guise of taxing the wealthy.
Technocracy involves everything boiling down to energy units instead of dollars, assigning amounts to prevent waste—pure control and surveillance, similar to Chinese social credit score.
$600 doesn't buy groceries for a family of four for a month. Talking points about taxing the rich justify bigger government and surveillance.
Shoutout to Your Auto Advocate (Greg and son)—reshaping car industry with full transparency.
Super chats: Leo Barwella $20 (for 529 plan, onesie, or tipping server); congrats on newborn daughter.
Uses headphones to monitor audio levels when playing clips (e.g., Dave Ramsey, Joe Rogan).
Started YouTube in November 2017. Early videos: "How to Establish Credit in 2018," "Top 3 Stocks to Buy." Whiteboard Finance: "Master your money and build your wealth" (saying it for four years).
Become more casual, comfortable, less scripted. Early videos show lower production quality, scripted delivery like "Obama speak." Advice to creators: be yourself.
Sold marijuana stock after it doubled/tripled; no marijuana stocks for years. Worst investment: MassRoots penny stock (weed company, like next Facebook of marijuana/Weedmaps). Invested $300 as spec play/gambling, now worth zero. Lesson: only spend money willing to lose; stay away from penny stocks—most go to zero like altcoins.
James Bond movie (Daniel Craig): not a true Bond movie, more action movie. Villain was beta soy boy. Gave it 6.8/10.
Bitcoin-related equities: quiet week despite Bitcoin up over 5% (now at $61,400+). Many crypto stocks consolidating gains or building bases. Not every week equal importance.
HUT8 (Canada miner) forming cup and handle pattern (William O'Neil's famous pattern: drawdown forming semi-circle cup, then handle). Miners track Bitcoin price (e.g., November/December takeoff from 55 cents).
Bitcoin mining with flared gas: using stranded gas to power generators for miners (friend has gas well on 65 acres in Ohio).
Nancy Pelosi Portfolio Tracker (@alphaletter.co): funny takes on politicians' insider trading (e.g., Mary Geiger Lewis Walmart; Charles Norgles Pfizer trades; Ilhan Omar's husband E Street Group: $635k PPP, $500k disaster loans, $2.8M from her campaign).
Fourth Turning book (1997): cycles of country phases (prosperity, conquest); now in fourth turning where faith in institutions/media erodes.
Politician trades: Nancy Pelosi 3x leverage long natural gas ETF; Senator Pat Roberts Tesla pre-split (61% return); Ed Perlmutter/Nancy Wyden Nvidia before CHIPS Act.
Mark Cuban coin, Tom Brady coins: pump and dump to zero vs. Bitcoin.
Can cash out $1M Bitcoin at bank (full amount); banks don't hold that much cash.
Doge: shitcoin, not good to buy/hold long-term.
Jamie Dimon on Bitcoin (2014): terrible store of value, fraud; then JPMorgan coin launched. Price chart parabolic. Skepticism on 21M cap despite code.
GaryVee parody clip: fan wants NFT advice (Instagram/TikTok focus); living in mom's basement ("fuck your parents"); 28yo music aspirant ("cut arm/leg off to be your age").
Chipotle rant: worst part is Tabasco sauce (red vinegar, no flavor). Publicly traded, get proper hot sauce. Shoutout El Yuka Tekko (Mexican seal of approval). Alternatives: Dustin Poirier's Louisiana hot sauce.
Meat/poultry prices through roof (steaks, bacon at Costco).
Farmer video: proposed tax per head of cattle would cost millions, put out of business.
Factory farming morally/ethically wrong but provides cheap meat. European food tastes better (natural cycle: see cow eat grass).
Fed trades: Powell $2M muni bonds (Fed bought $21.3B); Rosengren $800k REITs (Fed $649B); Barkin $3M corporate bonds (Fed $46.5B).
California truck ban: unknown.
HUT8 cup and handle dependent on Bitcoin price; prefers holding own keys over miners.
Nvidia 4-for-1 stock split, rallies 10%; Republican Ed Perlmutter bought pre-CHIPS Act; Nancy Wyden purchased Nvidia 2.
Discusses Unusual Whales breakdown on politicians entering national office to make money, not serve the public, comparing it to professional wrestling.
Originally planned gym-like monthly membership for individual courses on bench press, squat rack, spa, sauna at own pace. Creating courses is difficult to do right with value. Now offering two core courses: investing and personal finance. Purchasing them grants access to mentorship via private Discord server with focused live streams, weekly streams, community, and software tracking net worth, dividends, portfolios—launching in next couple months.
Bitcoin typically sees couple years stagnation post-peak, then parabolic after halving, like after May halving. Plan B's stock-to-flow model shows Bitcoin should be at $107,000 now. Predicted six-figure Bitcoin by end of year.
Stock-to-Flow Model Explanation
Model originally tracked gold: stock is existing gold (e.g., 10 tons), flow is new gold mined yearly; divide stock by flow. Applied to Bitcoin by Plan B (@100trillionUSD) due to gold-like characteristics but finite 21 million supply by ~2140. Stock-to-flow number shows years at current production to achieve current stock; higher number correlates to higher price. Blue line historically accurate since 2009, predicting $107,000 today.
Supply shock question: With 8 billion people and 21 million Bitcoin, divide for per-person allocation.
Watch "How to Buy Bitcoin" video using Coinbase Pro (lower fees than Coinbase).
- Transfer money from bank to Coinbase.
- Buy on Coinbase Pro (pairs like BTC-USD); owns Bitcoin, ADA, Ethereum.
- Withdraw to personal wallet: generate address, send BTC there. Now hold keys; no one can take it.
Do not keep crypto on exchanges—if exchange bankrupt, you're done. Use Coinbase Pro, not Robinhood.
Sold small portion Bitcoin at high 50s ($54k mentioned), took out cost basis (bought at $3k-$6k), now letting it ride, dollar-cost averages weekly. Replaces gold in portfolio.
Cools off after parabolic run. If no six figures by year-end, flattens until 2023-2024 halving, then parabolic (historical pattern). Colors on chart: days to next halving (blue = zero days post-halving: skyrockets, dumps, up again). Predicts $100k by end of year; up a lot already so doesn't care if wrong.
Long-term capital gains (held years): 0%, 15%, or 20% based on tax bracket (not short-term taxable income rate).
Mixed views: futures market may compress price or make parabolic. Bitcoin designed to go up forever; hardest money, best store of value outside government control.
Advice: Never trade Bitcoin, just buy and hold.
Uses Ledger Nano S (shows device) or Nano X; hardware/cold storage. Doesn't keep at home (armed with Benelli shotgun, Walther PPS 9mm). Trezor also good; neither hacked (databases have been).
No staking Bitcoin—not worth 6-8% risk on scarcest asset.
KYC Warning
KYC (Know Your Customer) bad: exchanges track via driver's license. Mine own Bitcoin (e.g., Slush Pool), take directly to cold storage—no KYC link to wallet ownership. Coinbase transfers link wallet to identity.
Next: South America (Argentina, Chile, Venezuela if not dictatorship), Ukraine—unstable currency areas. El Salvador: benevolent dictator, thermal mining with volcanoes.
Confiscation not feasible (unlike 1930s gold): remember 12/24-word passphrase, no physical needed. Huge finance shift next 5-10 years to Ready Player One metaverse: lower/middle class in small homes/trailers, VR avatars with ideal bodies; Amazon/Uber Eats delivery, no leaving house. Kids can't communicate; sales edge from basic conversation skills.
Sleep well at night portfolio: Divide net worth pie into asset classes (stocks, bonds, crypto, precious metals, cash, Pokemon cards, Beanie Babies). No slice >15-20% should scare you if goes to zero (e.g., 15% cash or crypto to zero: survivable).
It's money that I was willing to lose; it's an investment, a speculative bet. Figure out your percentages, divide accordingly, and trade accordingly. If your net worth is $100,000 and $90,000 is in Shiba Inu coin, 90% of your net worth is in Shiba Inu. If 90% is in cash, you're overweight cash and losing money to purchasing power erosion. Get your pies and slices right, then balance repeatedly. This prevents FOMO, stupid trades, and illogical actions.
Silver is not the best hedge; it has been manipulated for years, with people going to jail a year ago. On Graham Stephan's 20-cent coffee premise: it's the dumbest thing heard; you don't build wealth by making coffee at home or skipping avocado toast.
Marco is considering Ryan Pineda's real estate course. Just discussed hard-part real estate gurus buying courses with hard-part money. Don't know Ryan Pineda's course, channel, or guy. If he built trust with a provable system, track record, or resume, go for it.
Senate security trades in 2021: red is Republican, blue is Democrat. Purchases include corporate bonds, non-public stock, municipals, stock, other securities. Sales mostly blue, in other securities and stock. Focusing on stocks and option trades: 2020 Senate Republican disclosures over $200 million, Democrats around $35 million, Independent Senator Angus King just over $100,000. House was different, Democrats out-traded Republicans.
Disclosures may be skewed because some trade through spouses, husbands, cousins, or fathers, avoiding direct disclosure. Spouses do need disclosure. 2020 Senate stock options heavily Republican, 2021 more Democrat.
Hardest workout: 35 minutes on Rogue Echo bike, killer, dripping wet, legs and arms smoked from fan resistance.
On 1031 exchange going away: no strong opinion. People defer capital gains until death via 1031 exchanges. In commercial real estate, buy office building, increase NOI by raising price per square foot or leases, value rises, flip to rich buyer from California, pocket $1-2 million but defer capital gains taxes. Sell, then buy like-kind or similar property within timeframe, roll gains into it, repeat until death. Heirs get stepped-up basis at death value (e.g., bought for $1 million, dies when worth $5 million, heirs get $5 million basis).
Favorite exchange for crypto: Coinbase Pro, low fees, no problems, used for years.
Once slices of pie are picked, how long to cost average, especially if overvalued: it's a rebalancing act. Review net worth monthly with wife to check underweight/overweight percentages. Lump sum better in bull market per research, though many things feel overvalued. S&P 500 charts since 2008 show sharper business cycles from easy money, money printing, cheap debt, stock buybacks.
$126,000 in covered call ETFs (yields 7.75%+), earmarked for something in six months, moved from Capital One savings (0.3-0.4%). Hypocrite for doing it against own advice. Rule: if need money in 3-5 years, high-yield savings; longer, invest. Debate leaving for ~$800 gain or withdrawing and paying capital gains tax. Avoid picking up pennies in front of steamroller.
Stay away from everything China: they stole BlackRock investor funds. Alibaba, tutoring funds like EDU (bought at $16, now $2), another education group—government mandate wipes out business (government risk).
Live streams lately on Fridays, but not smartest time (people finishing work, happy hour). Planning private paid Discord for weekly focused streams.
Buddy texts: couldn't sleep building custom 911 GT3; Bitcoin to 61k with Matthew McConaughey ripping sick dude meme at 58k spike. On Sober October: buddy sober 24/7 since college, but if Bitcoin hits 100k, might smoke crack (he would).
China banning Bitcoin (8 millionth time): price explodes, as shown last week.
Forward: huge outdoor nightclub with famous DJs, bottle service, shipping containers, open Memorial Day to Labor Day, packed.
Kyrie Irving: good dude, met in Cleveland, friends with acquaintance. Has rights to bodily autonomy; team's choice not to compensate.
If most capital tied up short-term, determine investable amount by percentage of net worth.
M1 Finance vs. Betterment: Betterment hands-off, M1 for control and dollar-cost averaging. Likes M1, has $225,000 across three accounts (withdrew $50,000 recently, may video it). $200-300k total in M1.
Mutual funds at 19: avoid, do it yourself, focus on growth (time to recover losses).
Motley Fool: sometimes decent info, often pump to subscribe.
ETFs greater than mutual funds.
Joe Rogan clip: CNN may face lawsuit over calling ivermectin horse dewormer (lie, conscious framing as veterinary). FDA tweet: "You are not a horse, you are not a cow, stop taking this." Drug given to billions, Nobel Prize 2015 to inventor, stops viral replication in vitro.
Morgan Stanley CEO: inflation not transitory, here to stay. Thoughts on inflation: supply chain shock, logistics, transitory? Demand for dollars internationally prevents hyperinflation. Inflation inevitable.
Bitcoin over $100k by year-end: still agrees, on record.
Red flag: real estate agent or banker wearing red flag shoes.
There are actively managed funds that provide similar service to mutual funds. If investing in a mutual fund, pick one with a history of outperforming the market.
We should not investigate the American people with six hundred dollars in their account we should be investigating how public servants with a hundred thousand dollar salary are now multi-millionaires we should investigate why government officials have zero consequences to not disclosing trades
Is it the right time to buy and sell? It's always the right time to buy (not financial advice).
Charlie Munger doubling down on BABA (Alibaba). Chinese stocks scare due to government dictation. Example: New Oriental Education Group (EDU) dropped from $70/share to $4.86 after government mandate regulated after-school tutoring. TAL education stock also plummeted 99% in two weeks. This is government risk and international risk. BABA down 45% past year, 26% YTD—every dollar invested now worth 74 cents. Last six months down 30%, last month up 7.5%.
Uses custom net worth tracking spreadsheet (plans to sell or use as lead magnet). Tracks all holdings (brokerage, retirement) with wife to monitor cash allocation and stay disciplined.
40% of money that exists was printed in the last 24 months.
Why not M1 Spend instead of Capital One high-yield savings? Capital One is organized with automated systemic flows—not worth changing for extra yield (if it ain't broke, don't fix it).
Inflation rarely reverses; everything else catches up. Purchasing power of US dollar eroded from 100% to 1. QE1 (quantitative easing) during college graduation was helicopter money. US money supply grew by $3.8 trillion in 2020 (20% of all dollars ever created). Everyone is a genius now due to money printing.
Just bought 0.28 Bitcoin—good idea only if you have a thesis after doing homework, not from watching a stream. Yes, in short opinion.
VO (Vanguard S&P 500 ETF) has lower expense fees.
The Deficit Myth by Stephanie Kelton (Modern Monetary Theory—MMT). Government balance sheets differ from households; can print out of debt. Books ignore inflation, which devalues hard work—steals from people, keeps middle class on hamster wheel as prices rise with wages.
Bitcoin broke $62.5K—thick candles.
Income ETFs like NUSI, GEPIDIVO replace savings account for six months (caps growth/losses). Good for older investors wanting steady income; may not hold long-term.
Yield farming not worth risk (e.g., losing Bitcoin).
Net worth tool won't be as advanced as Mint—simple and valuable from systems perspective.
Taxation should be passive/public via spending (blockchain may do this).
Likes Key & Peele—funny, creative, smart (have oil video).
Global economy hanging by thread (inflation, US evergreen, China). Inevitable postponed by printed dollars.
Has $126K in M1 Finance—considering taking out $800 amid Bitcoin at $62.5K.
With $200/week to invest: split Bitcoin/S&P 500 or all Bitcoin? (next bull run potential 80% drawdown). Develop thesis and stick. Majority net worth in index funds/ETFs—sleeps well, grown 12 years. Both assets go up long-term. Biggest fear: Japan-style stagflation for 30 years, S&P 500 flat.
Creature from Jekyll Island (Federal Reserve book) on nightstand.
Crypto vs. Bitcoin: Buy/hold Bitcoin long-term (staple in portfolio). Crypto (shitcoins) like penny stocks—unsure.
Tax-free capped ETFs vs. stocks country-dependent.
Thick candles on Bitcoin.
Took profits in high $50Ks to recover initial cost basis (bought at $3K-$10K, made big chunks in four digits—nearly 20x). Now risk-free via dollar cost averaging.
Cardano (owns some)—doesn't trust Charles Hoskinson, proof-of-stake like central banking.
$100K out → high-yield savings.
No Chainlink.
M1 gives Bitcoin exposure but not actual asset (like gold ETF)—hold actual asset.
Don't buy Bitcoin on PayPal/Robinhood—can't withdraw, don't own keys. Buy on exchange, move to cold storage/hardware wallet.
Celsius/passive income/staking/stablecoins: too good to be true, not FDIC-insured, high risk—prefer not.
Altcoins: most shitcoins.
Been in Bitcoin since 2015 (heard 2013 at tech startup in Cleveland, CTO mentioned at $900-$1K—missed as idiot).
Coinbase Pro: low fees, reliable (screenshot reference).
Meet Kevin: good content initially, then became Stimulus Kevin—stopped watching.
Bull cycle end: After halving, parabolic moves (consistent historically). Halving reduces miner rewards (50 → 25 → 12.5 → 6.25 → 3), increases scarcity/value. Cycles cool post-halving, parabolic later—may flatten, but predicts six-figure Bitcoin by year-end.
Dave Ramsey keeps poor people poor. Followers like alcoholics anonymous—debt problems, seek biblical structure (incomplete).
Dave Ramsey teaches good basics and steps, agreeing with 90% of what he says. However, some advice like not building wealth until 60-70-80 years old is ridiculous; prefers traveling in 20s and 30s. Disagrees on building wealth through rental properties or leveraging assets, which aren't audacious or risky. Likes Dave but finds some stuff ridiculous.
Resistance at $62,000-$61,900. 'We all get bitcoin at the price we deserve.' eBay offered sellers bitcoin acceptance around 2010 at 30 cents but didn't trust it. Unclear on 'go horizontal' for bitcoin. Candles show resistance. Marco took a break for Costco dark chocolate with sea salt and caramel pieces; eats half occasionally.
Bull run end predictions for September-October are unreliable; no one knows. Prefers free market economics over Keynesian, which is BS despite current system. True free market means no bailouts, kickbacks, or under-the-table deals. Value-based pricing: McDonald's worker at $11/hour, inventors get rewarded.
Giant crypto exchanges manipulate markets for margin traders by triggering stop losses, buy/sell triggers. Buddy trader believes whales cause price drops to buy cheap. Success in bitcoin: buy and hold.
Candle: Red if price down in timeframe, green if up. Wicks show highest/lowest points. Example: From $10 to $1, finishes in between on green candle.
Tai Lopez and Grant Cardone: Gut feeling they're snake oil salesmen; seen both called out.
Generational wealth: Whole coiner (1 BTC) could be if hyperbitcoinization occurs; Twitter joke is 6.15 BTC. Baker Mayfield: Played well in playoffs but misses throws like overthrows; likes him but tough call on franchise QB.
Dave Ramsey hates crypto and individual stocks; plans parody videos with bald cap, clear glasses, using sayings like 'better than I deserve.'
Root cause of big tech monopolies: Publicly traded with influence, lobbyists; CIA funds Silicon Valley startups (e.g., Facebook). Smart devices like TVs, Alexa, Google Home, Apple Home listen and target ads (e.g., thermal flask).
Brother wants to borrow $42,000 (can afford): Friends/family and money mix like oil and water. Rarely repaid; check creditworthiness. Would give if multi-millionaire, but advise caution.
Books/audiobooks/podcasts: Millionaire Next Door, Rich Dad Poor Dad, Richest Man in Babylon (all you need), Bogleheads' Guide to Investing.
Up $140k in crypto: Establish trade thesis, ROI percentage, exit point, stop loss before entering. Don't blindly trade.
Big tech monopolies via acq-hires: Acquire companies for tech/employees. Personal story: First employee at e-funeral.com (Cleveland startup) with equity; acquired by Homesteaders (publicly traded death care company) for IP.
Cold wallets: Uses Ledger Nano S, Coinbase Pro (lower fees, no issues).
CIA big tech documentary: Hour/hour-and-half long on YouTube (possibly taken down); not Cold Fusion or Computer History.
Taxes on $100k crypto gain: Always pay if KYC'd (license, SSN on exchanges like Coinbase). They track wallets. Non-KYC mining/pools harder to trace (not tax advice). Rich use Panama/Pandora Papers methods.
Bond film: 3.4/5, action movie pretending to be Bond; fun with wife, big ribeye dinner, pic with Everything Money guys on Instagram.
Whiteboard Finance University: Shifting from monthly membership to high-value courses (investing, personal finance, maybe real estate/options) with mentorship: private Discord, chats, weekly structured live streams. Discord monthly if no course. Upcoming software for net worth/dividend/portfolio tracking; hiring local developers.
Bitcoin strategy: Dollar-cost averages; took out cost basis in $50k range pre-crash. Buys if below net worth percentage target.
Roth to Bitcoin IRA: Use self-directed IRA for bitcoin ETFs (Grayscale, MicroStrategy), real estate, gold. But ETFs are promissory notes, not actual bitcoin (like gold ETFs vs. bullion); defeats purpose.
Dogecoin: Never alive.
NFTs: Already made video with 200k views; maybe one on building NFTs.
Intrinsic value of bitcoin: Electricity to mine/preserve; what anyone willing to pay; thermodynamics (articles exist).
Stream issues: Low bit rate.
Not too late for bitcoin at ATH: Look at Dolpho chart.
Software developer Dave: Check email (gets 200-300/day).
Gets about 200-300 emails a day, tries to respond but can't to all. Up 140 pounds, advice: eat more caramel filled chocolate, keep stuffing face, American way. Marco: Chipotle better than Panda Express, but neither ideal. Serb or Croat: Montenegrin. Best of TD Ameritrade, M1, Acorns: Most money in M1 Finance for long-term dollar cost averaging pie system; second TD Ameritrade; avoids Acorns due to fees eating returns. Healthy Bitcoin/ETH net worth percentage: 5% speculative, personally 10-15% mostly Bitcoin; some say 100% but not extreme. First year with 16-month-old brutal for sleep. Audited for selling Bitcoin last year. Dogecoin started as joke, always will be. Thoughts on pawn shops: none, never customer. Do more videos without shirt: no, chest hair not good. End of year Bitcoin prediction: six figures, typically pumps around Thanksgiving/Christmas. Pumpkin spice beer: beer should be beer, hates IPAs, blonde ales, stouts, vanilla flavors; likes lagers, German beer, Belgian beer, good after hard labor. Change channel to Whiteboard Ask: bet, shoots like for longevity. Bengals or Browns: Browns, born/raised Cleveland. 26k high yield savings for house: video on this; <3-5 years keep there; longer, ETF like total stock market or conservative high-yield/long-term treasuries. Cake or pie: pie, cake gluttonous unless ice cream cake. Good at grilling: Weber, pellet grill, kettle, smoking meats. NBA Top Shot NBA affiliated: it is what it is, lost appeal after Kobe retired. From Coachella, CA. Beer nasty, make good cocktail: nothing wrong with beer. Bitcoin follows Dow theory: good question, following S&P 500, correlated not uncorrelated; people parking money, hopefully decouples as market cap grows. Jeff Booth Price of Tomorrow book: interviewed 7 months ago on Whiteboard Finance (2.4k views, low); Jeff legend, multi-millionaire; book on deflation/technology inherently deflationary. Owns gold/silver. Libertarian Party economics: humans naturally libertarian, Austrian economics, Ron Paul at Bitcoin conference great; libertarians unrealistic, taxes necessary evil. Showing visit to high school personal finance class, they love content. Still in Fundrise: yes. ADA: holds ~$2-3k. Invests in property/casualty insurance: Progressive, Liberty Mutual in dividend portfolio. World losing mind. Sweet wine: no, likes Pinots, Merlots, Cabs; sweet wines empty calories. BlockFi: no sweet interest, not worth it.
Lower belly fat issue, needs planks, sprints. Chest hair normal, not PC in 2021. No paid advertising, good as is. Coachella city in SoCal, aware of festival. Public finance department at university: unclear. SHIB: probably wouldn't buy. Peter Schiff podcast guest: cool, agrees with much except gold take. Soothe sweet tooth: fruit, sometimes ice cream weakness. Future no banks, no cash: paper/metal cash going down, surveillance state, all digital; using coins funny in 10-15 years. Used car prices down: no, until chip shortage fixed. Four-hour stream, 555 likes shameful (joking). Quit job YOLO: no. Everyone wants to be YouTuber, van traveler, pixel; live in metaverse, digital not real life. Not baseball guy. Croatia vs Italy World Cup final: nice, Italy on tear. Invest now Bitcoin high: pull up chart, decide yourself. Bitcoin divisible to 100 million units, all afford. Started seriously buying late 2018. Bitcoin 100k in 7 days: no. Hypothetically reverse DCA cash out next 5 years: cash all out, some short-term capital gains taxes. Mined Bitcoin at $400, lost faith. Serbia atop table, beat Portugal 1-0 Dusan Tadic penalty. LinkedIn deficit myth, dollar losing power, Alibaba down. Plays Gary Vee clip mocking: guy wants NFT/TikTok/YouTube, lives in mom's basement; Gary says fuck parents; 28 wanting music, Gary says cut arm/leg to be that age, so much time.
Red candles. From El Salvador, Bitcoin big deal; millions use wallets, legal tender by president; at Bitcoin conference June bought at ~$30k. Two young boys, save for future: video on saving/investing for kids; flowchart, tax-advantaged accounts first, high yield savings, 529 plans, custodial accounts, Roth IRAs; focus self first like airplane oxygen mask, not burden. Lights setup: three LED lights, one left/right/middle. Portugal crypto games no tax, tax/drug friendly. Best crypto wallet not from Amazon (hack risk), get from company. Super young kids: education focus, 529, can withdraw for vacation with fee. Cleveland food: fine dining, restaurant tours, steakhouses, Asian, Middle Eastern, Portuguese (Sopa de Ajo garlic soup best), ramen, Ethiopian, Mallorca warehouse amazing; big small city. BlockFi beef: accidentally sent others' Bitcoin, lost Bitcoin; too good true; trusted people have qualms; not worth staking for % when huge upside, no pennies before steamroller. Rock and Roll Hall of Fame: locals never been. Longhorn Steakhouse. Biden student loan relief: no idea, unfair to cashflowed education like he/wife did; adds to clown world. Four-hour sub stream answering questions real. Covered call ETM on Bitcoin awesome. Had $30 Chivo wallet El Salvador, family loaded one. Lola legendary, gone. How start Bitcoin: pin video 'how to buy and store Bitcoin'; like USB stick. African food: Ethiopian. Stop rubbing eyes, breaking.
Four hours, smoked/dead, going blind from LEDs/589 likes. Share videos, algorithm dislikes non-PC, no clickbait, provides value. Thanks, great weekend.
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