ICE Chaos in Minneapolis, Clawdbot Takeover, Why the Dollar is Dropping
These notes were generated by AI and may contain inaccuracies.
Allin podcast with original Quartet: Schmoth Poly Hotia in winter sweater with huge buttons, David Friedberg (sultan of science), David Sacks.
Stayed in 300-year-old log cabin with 6-foot ceilings and 5-foot door frames, bumped heads. Distinctly different Davos: business takeover and Trump takeover. 1.5 days of hand-wringing about Trump's speech, then city shut down for 75 minutes during his talk, followed by 1.5 days discussing it. More business-centric, bigger American presence due to Trump's speech orchestrated by Larry Fink, WEF chairman. Less catering to boutique European political issues.
Opening night dinner: Larry Fink called five speakers; Howard Lutnick (Secretary of Commerce) dropped truth bombs on Europeans. Said after 30 years at Davos, they've wrecked economies with net zero, climate change, energy policies, and open borders. Uncomfortable audience rustling; Al Gore reportedly booed. Climate change called Al Gore's big hoax from '90s; he won an Oscar. Bill Gates acknowledged it's not existential threat. Bloom off the rose, though European policies persist despite economic damage.
Europeans feel they can't trust America as reliable partner, plan to form voting/trading bloc as mid-tier economies (5-20). EU exists but unsuccessful due to energy and open border policies. Lack best-in-class AI or weapons. Canada and China did big deal bringing BYD cars to Canada, asserting sovereignty. Great powers define international system; mid-tier powers can't redefine it even banded together. Europeans desperate to keep US in Europe/NATO for peace post-1945; most peaceful period under US as great pacifier. Willing to make concessions. Trump demands burden-sharing; NATO spending up to 3%, heading to 5%. Greenland/Iceland in speech: Trump teased talking about Greenland, called it Iceland, buzz about taking both, then backed off invasion.
NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte convened meeting for compromise on Greenland; Trump satisfied. Trump anchors negotiations at impossible level (military invasion) then falls back to real goal (lease).
DHS Operation Metro Surge: 3,000 federal agents to Minnesota to crack down on illegal aliens. Last month: two incidents. Jan 7: 37-year-old Renee Good shot by ICE agent; accelerated car surrounded by agents, three shots (one front windshield, two side), investigation ongoing. Jan 24: 37-year-old Alex Prey (ICU nurse at VA hospital) shot by two Border Patrol agents. Frame-by-frame breakdowns by NYT, WSJ.
Steven Miller tweeted Prey was assassin trying to murder agents. Source: Gnome said everything at direction of president and Steven Miller. Greg Bovino removed from duty, social media off. Trump pivoted, put Tom Homan in charge: "Tom is tough but fair and will report directly to me."
Tom Homan Press Conference
"No agency organization is perfect. President Trump and I along with others in administration have recognized that certain improvements could and should be made. That's exactly what I'm doing here. So if we get these agreements in place, that means less agents on the street, more agents in the jail. Matter of fact, I have staff from CBP and from ICE working on a draw down plan. What does that look like based on the cooperation?"
Deaths of Renee Good and Alex Prey regrettable/tragic, as are deaths of Lincoln Riley, Joselyn Nungaray, Rachel Morin, Victoria Heuerl, Laken Riley, Ivory Smith murdered by criminal illegal aliens (media ignores their names). Trump hired to seal border, deport criminal aliens. Popular policy: 55%+ want all illegal aliens deported, 90% want criminal aliens removed. Murders down 21% last year, best in records. Smooth in most states due to local cooperation; Minneapolis resists.
Not peaceful protests but Antifa-style operations: organized via encrypted chats, stalk/dox ICE agents, surround hotels, block roads with cars, use bullhorns/whistles to alert criminals. ICE arrests named warrant-holders (criminal aliens), dangerous missions made riskier.
Details on Incidents
Good/Prey not innocent bystanders but foot soldiers; brought deadly weapons. Good hit officer with SUV (justifies deadly force under MN law signed by Tim Walz 2020). Prey sought confrontation, kicked car in rage (not first time); armed dealing with law enforcement requires pacifism. Media used selective angles, airbrushed Prey to look handsome victim.
Causes of Chaos
Victims of tinderbox from extreme rhetoric/decisions by Tim Walz, Jacob Frey; local police forbidden perimeters, creating vacuum agitators exploited. Reasons for resistance: distract from $8B Somali fraud (Nick Shirley discussed); thwart deportations as illegals boost blue state census apportionment (2030 forecast: blue states lose 9 House seats/electoral votes without them). Trump would have won +9 electoral votes last election accurately. Bare-knuckle politics, not principle.
Polls: NYT/Marquette 64%, CBS 57%, ABC 56%, 55% NYTimes want all illegal immigrants deported. Majority will clear; vocal minority aside. Democracy: majority will + minority protection. Cascade effects on Dem power. Trump won on this. Tactics issue: both deaths total tragedies, risk spinning out of control. Tom Homan (Obama medal for deportations) good choice to control process, dial down temperature. Remove criminals per majority will, enable law enforcement freedom to avoid tragedies.
Agrees illegals count in census for seats. Importing for votes illogical: working-class/Hispanics/Mexicans voted Trump as populist. Citizenship 20-30 years away. Voter fraud claims: Heritage Foundation 3,000 cases over 40 years; Trump lost 50-60 lawsuits. Supports voter ID everywhere (driver's license required); need ID for beer, plane, train. Opponents claim more democratic but prohibits poll checkers: only reason allows cheating. DOGE found illegals added to SS rolls (paying in, not collecting); SSN + driver's license (given to illegals) auto-adds to voter rolls in some states.
Census counts total population for House seats/electoral votes, including illegals. Data: Trump +9 electoral votes last election without them.
Changes made before the last election in 1972 mean a future Republican would not need to crack the Democrats' blue wall of Pennsylvania, Michigan, and Wisconsin. Nine electoral votes is a lot and puts the presidency further out of reach for future Democratic candidates. It provides a powerful incentive. It's not just electoral votes; it's also House seats. California would have lost four House seats if recognized, due to huge migration. The state is badly mismanaged, people fleeing blue states in droves. Illegal aliens replacing that population allows blue states to maintain House representation.
Freeberg supports use of ICE agents and DHS in cities? Were they too violent? Does he agree with Trump's pullback? Neither of these people should be dead. It's sad. Neither should have been doing what they were doing. Federal law enforcement agents should not wear masks, identify themselves when asked, wear body cams like local law enforcement. Body cams hold law enforcement accountable. Federal agents may have reasons not to if undercover. Federal law enforcement should have warrant or probable cause, not randomly ask for papers. Claims of rounding up and asking for ID/papers not personally convinced as proven. If true, no probable cause or warrant, should not be allowed. Mechanism: file injunctions in federal courts, actively happening. Due process determines if agents follow law. If not, injunctions imposed. No one should obstruct law enforcement. Correct path: protest peacefully, file injunctions, change the law via vote. Protesters can dislike the law, but no right to physically block law enforcement. If law enforcement arresting non-illegal immigrant murderer and someone blocks, people would be up in arms. Disagree with law? Change it. Current law: entering without immigration process is illegal. Disagreements on enforcement. File injunctions if dislike methods, change law if dislike law.
Personal view: No humane way to remove people here for a period, paid taxes, good contributors without inciting civil war. Compromise: path to permanent residency and citizenship for those in US for some period, followed other laws, paid taxes, not taken advantage of public services. Otherwise, civil war.
Bigger point, Ray Dalio: 35-40% chance of civil war in US per 2020 predictions. Rooted in everyone feeling oppression. World racing ahead, people left behind, see victims, want to act. Inevitability of civil war if not recognized, addressed with compromise.
Strongly agree police should not be interfered with. Stay home if can't peacefully protest. Police should deescalate, wear body cameras, not wear masks, trained properly. President Trump surrounded by competent people: David Rubio, Bessent, Lutnick, Kushner, Chris Wright. Also inexperienced sycophants picked for loyalty sinking second term: Steven Miller, Christy Noem (likely Kristi Noem), Kash Patel, Pam Bondi. Disaster for Trump, not qualified, caused chaos. In August, explained ICE actions unpopular, implored stay home if not peaceful, predicted someone gets killed, agents untrained, not deescalating, provoking—part of Steven Miller concept.
October: Trump's sinking approval amid ICE issues, Epstein files not released. November: net approval 13%. Now 18%. Trump needs to react to plummeting ratings.
Tillis quote: "If I were in her position... She's got to make her own decision or the president does. But she has taken this administration into the ground on an issue that we should own... They have destroyed that for Republicans... through their incompetence."
David Miller (likely Stephen Miller) stupid comments on Greenland, called guy terrorist prematurely. Marowski (likely Markwayne Mullin or similar) lost confidence in Christine Noem as DHS secretary, better served with leadership.
Americans don't like violence, cruelty, chaos. Trump lost to Biden due to chaos from immigrant ban. People want border closed, Trump should victory lap. Trump put Steven Miller in charge, bad actor, picked for lawfare, sadistic violence to feed MAGA base, risks midterms.
Easy solution: address why people come—better life, pay coyote $10-30k, risk death/abuse. Fine/jail business owners hiring illegals. Many businesses Republican voters. Solves without mass agents beating people, provoking. Doesn't absolve driving cars into police. Compassionate to those here 10-20 years, paid taxes—path to citizenship. America built by immigrants.
Steven Miller as vessel of hatred? Based on actions, not compassionate. Ad hominem? Basing on qualifications, polling, senators. Steven Miller more correct on immigration. For years denied open border problem? No, one year spike, asked for data, changed opinion when confirmed.
Origin of chaos in Minnesota: Politicians instruct not to hand arrested illegal aliens to ICE/Border Patrol. Case: illegal alien in Minneapolis killed mother, injured two in drunk driving crashes, no license/insurance, arrested vehicular homicide. ICE requested turnover, refused, released. Forces ICE to find/arrest. Not Gestapo randomly rounding up—have arrest warrants for specific people. Also Steven Miller told to round up at locations, hit numbers.
Why no violence under Obama who deported more? Obama: nation has right/obligation to control borders, 11 million who broke laws accountable. Democrat party changed 15 years ago from rational bipartisan support for deportations. ICE/Border Patrol dangerous jobs, wear masks due to doxxing, stalking via Signal, blocking cars. Local authorities in Minnesota (Tim Walz, Jacob Frey) say do not cooperate, release criminals rather than turn over. Last year, 470 convict illegal aliens released (subsequent crimes). Zealots prefer release over jail as central repository. Rhetoric calls ICE Nazis, riles up activists like Alex Pretty, Renee Good—victims of echo chamber rage. Alex Pretty video attacking Border Patrol, foaming rage, gun on waistband—emotionally disturbed, sought altercation. Tragic deaths due to political chaos by elected officials. Would not happen if turned over custody to ICE.
Why not find business owners? How know they hired illegals? Investigate: videotape car wash, pick up workers, ask papers, or to owner show paychecks/stubs for pictured people. For criminals like drunk driver killers, deport immediately. For big numbers, target farms, car washes, restaurants.
Agree to disagree, tragedy, need leadership to calm, reasonable immigration policy.
Clawdbot (likely Claudebot) gone viral overnight. Open-source project by Peter Steinberger, Austrian developer/entrepreneur. Open-source personal assistant like Siri or Jarvis. Installed? Spent 15 minutes, saved 15% on car insurance (joke). Many didn't get joke. Not installed due to security concerns over open-source tool accessing emails/messages. Spent 72 hours on it at company, mind-blowing.
Clawdbot is an open-source Siri or Jarvis. Users access an interface to talk to a virtual assistant that performs tasks like ChatGPT or xAI. Load it as a virtual machine or run on Mac Mini as a server, then authenticate with services like Gmail, Notion, Slack, WhatsApp, password manager. Super dangerous; Claude, xAI, Microsoft prohibit this.
Created virtual podcast producer persona with new Gmail (Sachs), Notion, WhatsApp accounts—virtual employee. Made it producer for This Week in AI podcast. Connected to podcast feeds, guest database. Instructed to research guests, create CRM for potential guests, suggest others. Vibe-coded its own CRM.
Prompted: "Do guest research." Performed instantly, as good as first pass by Nick or Lisa. Used Davos prompt: gets company name, founder info, competitors, timeline, suggested questions. Producer X responds: "Got it. That's great guest research." Did research on specific person: media appearances, etc.
Interacting like an agent. Instructed: "Producer X, email Alex to have him on This Weekend in AI, CC me and Oliver." Couldn't verify email, tried one, wrote and sent: > "Hey, Alexis wanted me to reach out. He'd love to have you on this weekend to discuss ExoLabs, your work on distributed inference... Let me know if you'd be interested."
Alex responded: "Sounds great. I'll be in touch."
Created group "replicants"; made five at company—replicant day/week. Instructed: every time you do work in replicant room, say what you did and put on calendar with timestamps. It logs: guest research, booking report, AI work.
Set up email ticker. Direct conversation with Producer X; it learns, knows everything. Started SDR replicant with CRM access; built own CRM, SaaS tools. Making LinkedIn for persona; will add people—humans unaware they're not human.
Out of 50 hours/week producer does, this does 40. For SDR, does 95%.
Takeaways from Clawdbot: 2024 year of personal AI assistant rise. Previously, AI as chatbot for research/better search, niche fantasy bots. Now, agent form factor that acts.
Beneficiaries: startups like Clawdbot (renamed Maltbot after Claude upset). Google advantaged: has email, calendar, documents. Safe since they already have data; ideal for G Suite integration.
Policy shift: agents change debate. Previously fought social media battles; AI not social media. Policymakers ask about protecting kids from predators—wrong modality.
Agents breakthrough proof of concept; dominant AI form factor ahead of research chatbots.
AI personal assistant exceeds expectations (calendar, travel, email summary). Widens possibilities like first FSD Tesla or iPhone. Super worker: scheduling, ideation, knowledge work, code, CRM tools, travel booking—everything.
Army of super workers transformative. Elon shut down Model S/X production in Fremont for Optimus. Bought two more Model X after FSD. Physical/digital super workforce: two Optimus in garage run business; everyone entrepreneur.
Prediction: merge companies—happening this week.
Queried Notion database for Craft Ventures guest: Mike Robinson Feb 24th, Brian on liquidity roundtable. Emailed Mike for pre-show call, guessed email, CC'd Heidi, offered top three times.
API costs: first day $100, soon $1000/day. Team notes high Slack usage. Ordering Mac Studios with max memory, running Kimi 2.5 (new open source)—95% queries free, saves 90%.
Independent of LLM; swap/routable. Tried Reddit accounts for research—refused, against TOS.
Blackbox AI: proprietary models (OpenAI, Anthropic, Google)—gated, no ownership. Clawdbot showed TOS risk (Anthropic blocked).
Open source: transparent, sovereignty for companies/countries, audit weights, self-host, data control. Previously underdog, weaker.
Kimi 2.5 (Moonshot): trillion-parameter mixture of experts. Agent Swarm tech: 100 sub-agents solve multi-step problems in parallel. Democratizes trillion-parameter reasoning, vision-to-code, massive context.
Run locally stupid/janky? No—huge data centers, nextgen silicon (post-Grok decode explosion). Cuts AI cost 90%; bill $10/day.
Daisy-chain Mac Studios (commodity hardware). Control data, infinite run, M5 chips coming. 90-95% jobs to local hardware.
Canceled OpenAI accounts ($25k). Big models will license prompt/response data back.
Architectural papers: 70-100x compute reduction; runs on iPhone locally.
National security: local open source breaks state legislation assuming centralized chatbots. Endorses federal AI preemption law vs state/local nonsense—limits innovation.
Policy indexed on niche fantasy chatbots/horror stories—not predominant use.
Analogy: if internet first three years only porn, don't regulate based on that—zoom out.
Valuations impacted: local/open source changes economics. Startups use Kimi.
Kimi 2.5 Chinese origin (Moonshot). Concerns: secret prompts, zero-day attacks, code injection. AI coding 50% now, to 99%; no human checks (Clawdbot founder doesn't).
Over-rely on evals; no broad red team coalition standards.
Opportunity: sovereign stacks (e.g., France takes Kimi 2.5). Need sandboxing, race conditions, corner cases for assurance. How long? By Kimi 3?
US open source too (Meta). AI for corrupted code detection, continuous monitoring. Community shares/patches bugs.
Forking issue: Moonshot investment causes drift; forks worthless. Need stress test/red team vendors for updates—business opportunity.
Critical infrastructure: avoid Chinese models; validated American branch ok.
Turning point this week.
Dollar index down 10% last year, lowest in four years Tuesday. Trump: > "No, I think it's great." Wall Street: Trump wants weaker dollar for manufacturing/exports (US cheaper, imports expensive).
Money printing $2.5T/year; Trump +$500B (military) to ~$3T. Gold/silver/copper outperform S&P (copper +26% month). Vinnie Lingham shoutout.
Analogy: island with two huts, shells as currency.
There's a bunch of shells that people are using for trade, each house is going to be worth a certain number of shells. If people found a whole bunch more shells, the price per house would go up in number of shells, but there's just more shells in supply. Effectively, you've inflated everything. That's what's gone on with the US fiscal condition.
In a democracy like the US for the past 250 years, without adequate constitutional constraints, over time government spending goes up. People ask government to do more every year, elected officials say okay and spend more. When borrowing capacity gets unlocked—after going off the gold standard—borrow like crazy, print money to fund borrowing costs, use it to drive the next voting cycle by giving people more of what they want. Eventually the bill comes due.
M2 money supply chart shows rapid rise in dollars as Federal Reserve makes loans to banks to fund federal spending—an extraordinary number. From 1955-1960, post-COVID accelerated it; despite hopes to reduce, it's increasing again. Over time, US dollar devalues with more dollars in market, US treasuries get challenged.
Central banks around the world no longer want to hold US treasuries. Gold vs treasuries in central bank inventory: gold now eclipsing US treasuries as largest share of holdings. Dollar index (against basket of foreign currencies) declined from 109 to 96 over past year.
US stock market total value in ounces of gold (if gold standard still existed): over past 7.5 years from pre-COVID, stock market down substantively. Stock market up in dollar terms, but down relative to gold.
US Treasury 30-year yield at 4.9%. Average US government borrowing cost today 3.3%. $39 trillion federal debt outstanding; if rolled at current rates (no new debt), incremental annual interest cost $700 billion/year—from 3.3% to 5%. That's 70% of current defense budget, 10% of overall federal budget, 3% of US GDP. Creates spiraling problem.
Dollar devaluation from excess government spending inflates asset prices. Asset owners (stocks, real estate) get wealthier. Majority of Americans are net asset negative, live off income, don't benefit. Fuels populism driving socialism. Response elects Donald Trump; response to Trump actions drives civil unrest in Minnesota and elsewhere. Much unrest and divide driven by majority feeling oppressed/left behind as asset holders accelerate net worth.
Confession: at gym on treadmill, thought about California wealth tax—may be inevitability to avoid civil war. Solve fiscal problem without violent or nonviolent wealth redistribution? Nonviolent preferable.
Problem with California wealth tax: not going to the people, going to special interests looting state for decades.
Audit everything before raising taxes. Special interests extract but don't solve divide—everything gets worse, rigs system raising costs for everybody. California everything performing worse.
Example: $6 million/year for 55-60 homeless with shakes to get free beer—program over.
Resolution isn't fair redistribution; centralized government movement of capital leads to extraordinary theft, large percentage recaptured by those good at it.
Texas/Florida do better collecting half as much tax per capita as California, no income/capital gains tax. If commit fraud, firing squad.
Matt Mahan (mayor of San Jose) entered race late—moderate, not union-captured. Effective: cleared homelessness in San Jose.
Field: Katie Porter (Democratic machine output), Tom Steyer (billionaire climate advocate), Eric Swalwell (congressman, virtue signaler like Christmas lights).
California jungle primary: top two advance regardless of party. If Mahan top two (e.g., vs Swalwell), he'll win as Republicans vote centrist. Possible top two both Republicans currently trending.
Republicans: Chad Bianco (sheriff) ~15%, Steve Hilton (Fox News commentator) ~15%—lead in fragmented field. But Dems will coalesce, party machine tells dropouts to consolidate. Republicans split at 15% each have ceiling, need ~30%.
Best scenarios: two Republicans advance (unlikely); Mahan vs liberal Dem (Swalwell)—Republicans back Mahan, he wins; Mahan vs Republican—Dems back Mahan, he wins (+20-30 blue state).
Path for California restoration: Mahan governor, Rick Caruso for LA mayor (Karen Bass disaster, aided Palisades burning). Defeat wealth tax.
Trump took over Pacific Palisades rebuild with executive order? Few permits granted in 18 months.
California $1 trillion fiscal cliff from pension obligations. Court precedent: cannot change pension benefits promised at hire date—for life, cannot dispose except bankruptcy. No state bankruptcy mechanism.
Two ways to save: 1) constitutional amendment to fix pensions; 2) enable state bankruptcy. Else, just delaying collapse. Governor asking feds for bankruptcy change higher chance.
Gavin Newsom (running president 2028) picks successor? Doesn't want Republican rebuke. Swalwell (weaker/stupider)? Mahan criticized Newsom on homelessness. Newsom thin-skinned, machine may back Swalwell despite train wreck risk. Doesn't want state falling apart during his run.
Opportunity for tech, Hollywood, agriculture to back non-establishment like Mahan.
All-In Summit Los Angeles September 13-15; applications open. All-In Liquidity Event May 31-June 3 for VCs, LPs, sovereign wealth, endowments—apply at allin.com/events.
YouTube channel hit 1 million subscribers.
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