SpaceX Earnings: The Bear Case Nobody's Talking About
In a Nutshell
SpaceX's $1.5T valuation faces a potential 16.7% decline as the company reports its first earnings with $19B revenue against $8.6B losses, while a massive $110B share unlock hits two days later. Wall Street estimates show $6.9B revenue and 24-cent EPS loss, with capex concerns mounting at $45B for 2026. Historical delivery failures on products like Optimus and full autonomy, combined with xAI's heavy spending, cast doubt on whether the company can justify its premium valuation despite AI growth hopes.
These notes were generated by AI and may contain inaccuracies.
SpaceX reports earnings today for the first time in history. The company is set to report after market closes alongside AMD. SpaceX stock has been showing signs of lower highs and lower lows with aggressive selling. From highs of $230 per share, the stock has drawn down to $104, representing over 50% loss in value. At the current price of $119, the stock is down 48% from its highs, having lost over $1.5 to $1.6 trillion in market cap value.
According to fair value analysis from Investing Pro software, there appears to be another 16.7% downside potential. The company trades at a negative PE ratio and produces $19 billion in revenue against a $1.5 trillion market cap. The company loses $8.6 billion in net income. The stock is described as highly speculative with analysts warning against expecting huge returns.
Wall Street expects $6.9 billion in revenue and $2.1 billion in EBITDA for the current quarter. The earnings per share loss is estimated at 24 cents. Revenue estimates stand at $6.8 billion with little conviction behind the numbers. Loss estimates have widened up to 18% over the past month, with one strategist noting that analysts appear to be guessing the numbers.
Two days after earnings, on August 6th, over $110 billion worth of SpaceX shares will be unlocked. This represents 911 million shares becoming tradable, allowing private sellers to begin selling their holdings for the first time. This marks the first unlock of private sellers being permitted to sell.
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