SpaceX IPO, Iran War Fallout, Quantum Bitcoin Hack, The Space Opportunity
In a Nutshell
SpaceX confidentially filed for a $1.75T IPO aiming to raise $75B, with Starlink driving $20B annual revenue and a near-certain post-IPO merger with Tesla into a $3.1T powerhouse unlocking moon industrialization via cheap rockets, mass drivers, and Tesla robotics for mining precious metals like platinum. Amid Iran war fallout ($70B+ costs, fertilizer/natural gas shocks risking global food crisis), 2026 IPO wave (OpenAI/Anthropic at inflated $300-800B vals) faces liquidity crunches, PE contraction, and quantum computing threats to Bitcoin demanding urgent resistance upgrades within 5-7 years. Shift to "HALO" (high-asset, low-obsolescence) investments amid Trump's declining approval (-17), political risks, and advice to pivot hard on energy independence.
These notes were generated by AI and may contain inaccuracies.
SpaceX filed confidentially to go public on April 1, targeting a $1.75 trillion valuation. At that valuation, it would be the eighth largest company in the world, right behind TSMC and Saudi Aramco (both ~$1.7 trillion). Tesla is currently number 10 at $1.37 trillion. Combining Tesla and SpaceX (ticker ELO) would create a $3.1 trillion company, fourth largest ahead of Microsoft. Aiming to raise $75 billion, the largest IPO raise ever, expected in June (wanted 4/20 but couldn't hit it).
SpaceX acquired x.ai for $250 billion, including X, Twitter, xAI LLM, and Starlink. Starlink will generate 50-80% of SpaceX revenue, close to $20 billion a year. Rocket launches are the other 40% ($5 billion in 2024). Total 2025 revenue: $15-16 billion with $8 billion profit (Reuters).
99.999% chance Tesla and SpaceX merge post-IPO if it goes well. Merger provides validated external mark-to-market valuation for SpaceX, aligning with Tesla's daily market valuation to minimize tax losses and simplify governance. Eliminates shareholder quibbling over Elon's time allocation (nobody questions Zuck, Satya, Sundar, Jensen). Overlap in robots (used in SpaceX), terra fab (Tesla), xAI (both). Cross-disciplinary learning from Tesla/SpaceX materials, Boring Company, Neuralink. Elon knows factories better than anyone except some in China like Foxconn.
"Dollars to donuts, these things are going to merge."
IPO noise from tort lawyers/shakedown lawsuits (e.g., Tesla comp package suit with 10 shares won via D&O insurance). Wachtell Lipton (Ed Hurley, Raj Narayan) handles major transactions.
20 years ago SpaceX started; now rockets launch every 2-3 days, more in a month than days. Artemis II launched yesterday: US rocket with 4 astronauts, Earth orbit to Moon and back, prepping for Moon landing in ~2 years. Moon as next industrial frontier due to abundant materials (aluminum, silicon, palladium, platinum, gold). Cost to ship processed/precious metals from Moon to Earth < boat/airplane/railroad, using 1/6 gravity, no atmosphere.
Mass driver: electric rail accelerates packages to 100g force, shoots to exact Earth point (or Mars), reenters with parachute. Continuous mining/manufacturing at fraction of Earth cost. Robotics solve people-to-Moon limit (Tesla autonomy → robotics revolution; ship robots to Moon even if banned on Earth).
Tesla: started electric cars → autonomous → robotics. Moon lacks carbon/nitrogen/hydrogen/oxygen (gaseous, evaporated due to low gravity). 500 sqm solar panels power 4km mass driver: 1 ton every 10-15 min. Autonomous mining vehicles process ore; 15cm moon rock heat shield burns on reentry. Heat dissipation via helium turbine for electricity.
SpaceX as railroads to Moon/Mars frontier, like West expansion. Created backup internet via Starlink satellites + space data centers (parallel to Earth copper/fiber, resilient to govt collapse).
Lower cost/kg to space enables entrepreneurs: asteroid mining, Varda (space experimentation), Vast Space (Jed McCaleb, ex-Ripple/crypto; invested hundreds of millions; modular space stations via SpaceX carriage slots). Google/Amazon could want space stations.
Space infrastructure needs: last-mile logistics (Elon = container ships; need space FedEx), garbage collection (nets, magnetic plates), power (space solar cells: 1mm thick, meteor-resistant). Every Earth economy rebuilt in space: FedEx/Maersk/Allied Waste/Freeport-McMoRan of space.
PGMs (palladium) rare on Earth; unlimited supply downstream effects huge. Moon better than asteroids for infrastructure (refine ores on-site vs. chunky rocks).
"It's the beginning of the beginning."
Analogy: 1700s/1800s US West land unimaginable 100-150yrs later; now railroads (SpaceX) + robots unlock frontiers. Non-zero-sum: expands production vs. socialists' view.
2026 record IPOs: Anthropic, OpenAI, Databricks (9-10 figure valuations), long tail (Cerebras, Canva, Discord). PolyMarket: SpaceX 94%, Anthropic 41% (was 70% Feb), OpenAI 38%, Databricks 32%. Derailers: Iran war, recession, Democrats control Congress/Senate.
Elon gets out first (Thanksgiving appetite analogy: first plates filled, risk rises at tail). Risks: tactical event risk (Iran), AGI/ASI uncertainty (OpenAI terms, Amazon capex; if real, erodes company durability; if not, questions fundraising). No blockbuster stream; SpaceX succeeds, then maybe 1-2 more, appetite exhausts (trillions reallocation, not sidelines; S&P shift to HALO - high asset, low
Most people are defensively moving away from high-risk investments and towards Halo businesses: high asset, low obsolescence. These trade at zero today; you can buy hundreds of millions of dollars a year of cash flow for 2-5 times in the stock market. Why go out on the risk curve for something at 200 times revenue, let alone earnings?
It's good to be first, decent to be second, but companies should get public ASAP, get money, and fortify balance sheets. Risk builds further down the IPO chain due to competition for investor dollars from retail, institutional, and sovereign wealth funds. Choices include Nvidia, SpaceX, rotating out of Amazon, Google, or Disney. Many IPOs could trade below IPO price in the year or two after and get repriced, as seen before.
Shareholders have held shares for long periods at extraordinary valuations—hundreds of billions in market value becoming liquid for the first time. Investors seek liquidity regardless of entry price. Limited buy-side capital means if bids don't absorb selling, share prices decline and market finds a price.
IPO is not just a step to drive price or value up; that's a false sense. Pent-up selling demand, overgraded value, and selling pressure will lead to little buying activity. Big buyers post-public were already in pre-public. Likely retail buyers, but retail has limited powder, already deployed.
Bloomberg article: OpenAI falling out of favor with secondary buyers at $850 billion valuation. Investors can't find buyers; looking to sell $600 million in shares (institutional). Anthropic (valued at $300 billion) seeing secondary bids at $600 billion valuation.
OpenAI and Anthropic are next major IPOs, potentially overvalued at $300-500 billion, not trillion-dollar companies. OpenAI: $24 billion revenue at $852 billion valuation = 35x price-to-sales ratio, absurd depending on growth. What if at AGI with de minimis or no moats? Anthropic hacked: code transmuted to another language, posted on GitHub, can't be stopped. Negates their argument for training on others' data.
Market for OpenAI at $800 billion exists and should. Mind-blowing business, never seen anything like it—same for Anthropic. Unbelievable trillion-dollar companies that deserve it. Profitability unknown, terminal valuation unknown, IPO pricing unknown. But they need to go public quickly.
Every company after lacks importance and doesn't need money as badly. Money comes from tech sector PE shrinking faster than non-tech PE. SpaceX, OpenAI, Anthropic bake AI that targets tech sector, eliminates/cannibalizes/erodes moats supporting differential trading.
Bet: As these three go public, software businesses approach non-tech PE. Multiple erosion signals world won't buy 15-year stories anymore due to these three. After them, blue line (tech PE) converges to orange line (non-tech PE)—nasty.
Secondary market is canary in coal mine for OpenAI: exceptional businesses, growth, customers love products, but brutal burn and circular financing. Reality emerges in S-1s and quarterly earnings. Market share flipping with Entropic, Gemini, others.
Liquidity crunch ahead for capital-intensive tech businesses due to Middle East conflict. Qatar, Saudi, UAE, Oman less eager for large capital slugs. Capital flows through JP Morgan loans to SoftBank to OpenAI—needs unencumbered, debt-free capital, historically from Middle East sovereigns/family offices. Likely tightening near-term.
Secondary demand from Europe/Singapore family offices with limited prior access, but finite. Capital crunch emerging; shockwave from Middle East not fully felt yet (LP commitments from last cycle). Mega funds with Middle East LPs gone, market shock hits.
Risk for US (China less challenged, potential capital advantage). If conflict worsens, downscale commitments, cite war to avoid markets. Markets shook it off; view Iran not big. Big event risk: Is AI real? What are companies worth?
Day 34 of Iran war/military operation. Trump addressed nation Wednesday for 18 minutes:
We are the only independent of the Middle East. And yet we are there to help. We don't have to be there. We don't need their oil. We don't need anything they have. But we're there to help our allies. For years, everyone has said that Iran cannot have nuclear weapons. But in the end, those are just words if you're not willing to take action when the time comes. Our objectives are very simple and clear. We are systematically dismantling the regime's ability to threaten America or project power outside of their borders. And then tonight, I'm pleased to say that these core strategic objectives are nearing completion.
Costs mounting: 13 American service members died, 200+ injured. 3500 Iranians dead (1600 civilians, 200+ children). 1200 dead in Lebanon from Israeli strikes. 50,000 US troops deployed. Chances of ground invasion increasing. War cost $70 billion so far ($2 billion/day). Pentagon requests another $200 billion (Ukraine war: $113 billion first year; this could exceed at 50 days).
Polymarket: 25% chance ceasefire by end April, 47% by end May. Ground invasion: 63% by end April, 25% by end December.
If not energy independent, at risk. Ukraine-Russia didn't show Europe; this should. US has energy independence. Europe gutted nuclear, nat gas (Nord Stream 2), solar credits; now turning around: Italy/Spain reintroduce investment tax credits, Germany restarts nuclear. Critical for Europe to be energy independent for optionality.
Middle East (UAE, Saudi, Qatar, Kuwait) key future financing/banking partners. Need conclusive war end for them to monetize assets. Energy independence (nuclear slow, ramp solar) decreases long-run hydrocarbon demand, hurting monetization. They want safety, quick end, incentivized for boots on ground more than US.
Fertilizer: N (nitrogen), P (phosphorus), K (potassium). Ukraine largest K producer. Nitrogen (60-65% global fertilizer) drives productivity; made where natural gas processed (input for carbon, hydrogen, oxygen). Compress atmospheric nitrogen (70% of air) to 200x pressure, electrical current/metal catalyst breaks N2, recombine to ammonia.
Middle East massive producer (Qatar); 35% world's nitrogen fertilizer through Strait of Hormuz. China swing producer (15%), shut exports days after war start. Strait shut, nitrogen stopped. Urea (solid nitrogen fertilizer): $350/ton pre-conflict, spiked to $700+/ton.
Supply deficiency: Farmers in Africa/South Asia lack urea. US corn needs 200 pounds urea/acre—unprofitable at current costs. China stopped buying corn, keeping prices low while inputs spike. US farmers switching to soybeans (1/3 lacked spring fertilizer).
Fall planting in months: Choke points keep prices high. US makes own ammonia (Oklahoma, Texas, Wyoming), but global costs hurt profits. Millions of farmers worldwide can't access. Post-Ukraine: 400 million in malnourishment (1200 calories/day for year). This worse due to nitrogen criticality.
Facilities: 3-5 years to fix (Qatar main urea facility damaged), 7 years new. All run 24/7/365 full capacity, no excess. World has <30 days food calories stored; supply shocks percolate.
US farmers struggling; China leverages by halting exports/own corn buys. Need fertilizer stockpile like pharmaceuticals/PPE. Natural gas reservoirs exist but underexploited due to climate risks—luxury beliefs until shocks. Need excess/local capacity amid fragmentation/multipolar world, less US policing.
Double down on energy production and critical inputs like fertilizer. Nat gas byproduct: helium (MRI machines, semiconductors, mass spec/chemical analysis). 1/3 world helium from Qatar halted—supply shock. US developing (e.g., Cheniere facility in Louisiana).
US has extraordinary natural gas reserves, key for LNG exporting. Many places have failed to develop them. Criticality realized now. Prediction: Trump will pivot extremely soon.
Trump's net approval rating plummeted to negative 17, least popular ever. History shown via chart brought up four times: June last year, October, now. Unpopular decisions: ICE actions, Epstein files. Prediction from previous episode: Kristi Noem and Pam Bondi fired or given "new job with window seat."
Inflation three handle returning per PolyMarket. Gas over $4/gallon. 8 million people at "no kings" protests. PolyMarket: 51% chance Dems take Senate, 86% House, $4.5 million betting volume.
Lost support from Tucker, Megyn Kelly, Joe Rogan. Two groups: highly qualified (Bessent, Lutnick, David Sacks, JD Vance). Others not up to task: Pam Bondi, Kristi Noem, Stephen Miller, Kash Patel. Predicts clearing house, already two of four out. Need to turn presidency around to avoid two more years of impeachments, investigations.
Correlate Stephen Miller, Kristi Noem, Kash Patel, Pam Bondi with downside. Questions: Who decided Iran entry? ICE in Minnesota? Need great leadership.
Socialism incoming, AOC wins if no pivot from Iran soon. Uncertainty on Hegseth. No info on why Trump did Iran operation (war: killed top 100). Operation Midnight Hammer supposed to decimate, so why again? Stay humble: Trump may have info we don't. Debate: overconfidence, baited by Israel?
Hard to criticize without CIA/Mossad insights. All will come out in investigations.
Israeli "mowing the lawn" doctrine: take away 30-40% progress toward nukes from Hezbollah, Hamas, Iran, contain them. Tipped to regime change. Wild card. How to leave Iran if they take Strait of Hormuz, charge $1/barrel? High stakes.
Trump: US doesn't need Middle East oil; Europeans go straight to Strait, it opens naturally as "they're going to want to be able." Humor on "Straits/Gays/Non-binaries of Hormuz." Clip reference: young Indian lady misunderstanding question.
Quantum chip functional in 5-7 years, not 25-30. Bitcoin leaders must organize for quantum resistance. If not, visible honeypot. Non-state actor drains Bitcoin first (SHA-256, ECDSA vulnerable), then reveals, crashes prices, buys everything. Crypto migrated encryption before; now big lift: re-architect wallets, transactions, nodes. 5-7 years to fix.
Encryption relies on factoring primes. Shor's algorithm (1994) cracks it. Oded Regev (NYU, 2023) improved: 28 million to 500,000 quantum operations. Progress in algorithms before industrial-scale quantum. Market bets near-term viability. Quantum-resistant standards exist; heavy lift needed across internet, communications. Business opportunity.
Crypto like software stocks: if quantum real, many projects worthless; if AGI/ASI real, software companies not what thought. Can't have both.
Ben's prior EA: $188-200K/year. Switched to Athena: well-trained Filipinos, $3,000/month, plus tooling for AI/agents. Lei (math/CS grad): handles advanced/practical tasks, works US hours. Bonus possible. Examples: weekly Abbey Jane Bakery orders (Dripping Springs, no online orders; calls 8am Thursdays, Uber courier). Sorts founder applications with OpenClaw. Cost-effective amid low US unemployment; Filipinos want jobs. Others: RJ (technical). Major unlock vs. inflated EA roles (prefers AA; chief of staff overused).
Ohalo ships seed this week to North American farmers, including Roger the dirt farmer (poker player with son). Poker: Roger/Keating crushed game; tough with Helmuth, Kuhn, Roble (murderer's row). JCal squeaked in, won $40-50K (25x skis), doubled up despite Helmuth jab.
allin.com/events sold out fastest ever; waitlist, seeking 100 more seats. Bill Ackman, Andre Karpathy announced. Iris Zone pitch competition: 4 hot fund managers (50M to 1-3B), pitches in natural resources, healthcare, tech, crypto. Vote, publish ideas.
Storm from Chamath's Tao mention in Jensen interview: open source/distributed compute future (e.g., Folding@Home for health). JCal small bet ($500-600K) on Tao subnets. Andreessen rage-tweeting "retard maxing" guy (back deck, Weber grill, cigar: just work/enjoy life).
Speaker praises a guest as incredible, advises against overthinking: "Just enjoy your life and work hard and don't think it through." References Freeburg who starts ruminating, tells him: "Just go sell software and go make better potatoes, Freeburg. No more ruminating and therapy for you, Freeburg." Invites Marc Andreessen to come on the program anytime: "You'll reach our backs with us here on the All In Pod. Love you, boys."
Multiple "Bye-bye. Bye." repetitions.
"We need to get merch, these are fast."
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