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“The Wars in Iran & Ukraine Will Merge Very Soon”

Chris WilliamsonSeptember 8, 202612m
In a Nutshell

The speaker predicts the Ukraine and Iran wars will merge into a wider conflict resembling World War III, with all major powers eventually drawn in. January 2027 is framed as the decisive reset point, where US midterm outcomes will determine whether Democrats end the war or prolong it through bipartisan support. Israel faces an unwinnable strategic position against a Turkish-led alliance, while Iran is delaying major moves to strike a deal before the elections.

AI-Generated Notes

These notes were generated by AI and may contain inaccuracies.

A war with Iran will never end. The war in Ukraine and the war in Iran will eventually merge. Zelensky bombed an Iranian cargo ship in the Caspian Sea and was very proud of that, as if saying "Look, I can do this for the Americans." All global powers will likely be drawn into this conflict, including China and Russia, resembling World War III.

January 2027 will be a pivotal moment where all parties—the United States, China, and Iran—will have the opportunity to reset the situation. Iran has a strategy related to the US midterm elections, seeing oil stockpiles dwindling and believing it is in a period of maximum pressure. The opportunity is to destroy Trump's presidency politically, not to remove him from position, but to make him the weakest and most helpless of presidents. Much will be known in the first week of January, when everyone will recalculate their post-Trump world.

The memorandum of understanding between the United States and Iran collapsed because Israel refused to abide by the terms. One key condition was that all peace terms applying to Iran must also apply to Iran's allies, particularly Hezbollah in Lebanon. This would require Israel to withdraw its forces from southern Lebanon. Israel refused and instead intensified its attacks on Hezbollah. Israel has many options and is currently choosing to escalate the war.

The Houthis did not get involved. They are religious fanatics who are very poor, live in the mountains, and do not fear death. They are waging war against Saudi Arabia, bombing Saudi Aramco facilities and closing the Bab al-Mandab Strait.

This is more like a religious war—a crusade and an eschatological war. There is also the alliance between Saudi Arabia, Turkey, and Pakistan. Saudi Arabia finds no benefit in Iran. The Turks are striving to develop themselves into a major power that will frighten the Israelis. Pakistan itself is developing significantly in this war at a very advanced level.

There was a story that Iran will be asked to join this alliance—in other words, surrender. This created a new structure in the Middle East, a very different structure with a very powerful state. Israel is terrified of Türkiye because they know they cannot be bombed. Turkish officials in Syria were bombed, and this was part of it because this is a country they cannot defeat. The Turkish army is three times larger than the Israeli army.

Israeli society is built around a commitment to the belief that they will try to destroy us, with a state of inherent suspicion. They are facing, for the first time, an enemy they cannot defeat, due to both geography and military capability. When Von Rundstedt was asked what should be done after the Battle of the Bulge, he said: "Make peace, you fools." This is the situation in which Israel finds itself. It has reached a point where its military capabilities are no longer sufficient.

The midterm elections are a crucial threshold that will determine whether the Democrats will control Congress. If the Democrats take control of Congress, two things will happen: there will be enormous pressure to literally end the Iran war, and they will want to restrict Israel. There is a huge push within the Democratic Party to eliminate budgets allocated to Israel. By January, Israel will have to recalculate, and others will adjust their calculations based on the outcome.

Almost all Democratic leaders are arguing that the war should end now. The woman who won a Senate seat in the primary election in Florida was strongly against the war and believes it is a terrible mistake that should end. The real question is whether Democrats will take responsibility for ending the war once they seize power. If Democrats stopped the war and Iran got a nuclear weapon, that could put Republicans back in power in 2028.

If Democrats support the war for fear of losing political legitimacy, this is how an endless war develops through bipartisan support. Republicans opposed the war because this was one of the foundations on which he won the election—namely, not getting involved in these endless wars. Opinion polls show the war is extremely unpopular. Ending the war is popular not only with Democrats, but with Republicans as well.

The Iranians are trying to postpone this for as long as possible, then trying to strike a deal in September or October before the elections.

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