WHOOP CEO, Will Ahmed: 50B Hours of Health Data, a 4 Million Member Data Moat, & the FDA Fight
In a Nutshell
Whoop built a 4-million-member subscription business around 50 billion hours of continuous physiological data, proving that recurring revenue aligns incentives better than hardware sales and enables rapid software feature delivery on existing devices. The platform's AI coach now correlates daily journal entries with HRV, respiratory rate, and recovery scores to surface personalized insights—like alcohol's 9% recovery hit or warm baths' 7% boost—while detecting early illness signals that have flagged everything from COVID to stage-4 cancer. By keeping members as customers, not the product, the company is using its proprietary data moat to push FDA-cleared features like ECG and blood-pressure insights without ever selling user data.
These notes were generated by AI and may contain inaccuracies.
On average, a Whoop member wears Whoop 23.6 hours a day. Whoop has just over 50 billion hours of continuous physiological data, making it one of the largest health data sets in the world. For a dollar a day, this is one of the best things to spend on health. LeBron James is now a global ambassador for Whoop and was one of the first 100 people to ever wear it. Through physiological signals, Whoop might be able to predict that a biomarker is out of range without actually measuring the biomarker itself.
Whoop has been building wearable technology to improve performance and health for 14 years, founded in 2012. It took about 12 years to get to a million members, then another 18 months to reach 2 million, about 6 months to 3 million, and the company expects to end the year around 4 million members.
The service costs anywhere from $15 to $30 a month depending on the plan. The decision was made to go with a subscription model rather than a one-time hardware fee. In 2017, Whoop launched to consumers with a one-time fee of $500. The company had built Whoop as a performance brand known amongst the best athletes in the world and worked with all sports teams. After launching to consumers targeting an athletic and fitness enthusiast audience, two observations were made: people who bought Whoop would wear it for a long time, and not that many people were buying the product.
The subscription model created growth for Whoop in 2018 and 2019. The company quickly became a recurring revenue business versus a hardware business, which is more attractive to investors. When operating as a subscription business, the company becomes obsessed with existing members, focused on innovation cycles and continuing to rapidly improve the product and obsess over the member experience.
When selling widgets, focus is on distribution and marketing, but once there is a subscriber, they are a customer the next month and following year. The metrics shift to obsessing about churn and engagement. The company gets very focused on user engagement, how often people are using the product, how effective it is, and driving behavior change and health improvement.
The subscription model changed hardware cycles. When operating as a hardware business, the company was incentivized to ship new hardware every 12 months whether or not it was actually innovative because of the need for the next dollar from a hardware sale. A pure hardware company is not incentivized to innovate on top of the existing product because the goal is to convince people to buy the next thing. With the subscription model, the incentives are opposite: hardware is launched when it is really innovative and a step function better, and the focus is on continuing to update the membership and subscription.
Someone who joined 18 months ago may not have known they were going to have ECG monitoring, AFib detection, advanced labs which is the blood work feature in the app, health span which tells you the Whoop age and is a whole longevity feature, and blood pressure insights which is a new capability that allows people to look at their blood pressure every day. These are examples of new features brought to market with hardware that is already in market.
The software gives more value once committed to the product. Committing to the product means filling out the journal every day or a couple times a week to get much more out of it. The three main pillars on Whoop are sleep, recovery, and strain. Most people start their day by looking at how well they slept last night, including the sleep score, sleep consistency, whether they go to bed and wake up at the same time, hours of sleep, how many of those hours were quality sleep versus time spent in bed trying to sleep, how much was restorative slow-wave sleep, REM sleep, and a deep understanding of the body's overall circadian rhythm and how well they are sleeping.
The recovery score is red, yellow, green, 0 to 100%. The health monitor includes respiratory rate, resting heart rate, skin temperature, blood oxygen, and HRV (heart rate variability).
A member had a respiratory infection in the household. One day the respiratory rate was two breaths higher than normal, going from 16 to 18 or 17 breaths, and skin temperature was 2 degrees hotter. Respiratory rate is normally a very boring statistic that does not change at all, so an elevation of two breaths is meaningful. After this happened a second day in a row, the member did a warm bath and got electrolytes, thinking they might be coming down with something. On Sunday night, chest pains started. The member went to the emergency room at 1:00 a.m. and stayed until 7:00 a.m. Every possible test was done including a CT scan, EKGs, and everything at the heart center. The member had inflammation in the lungs around the chest and the heart was being constricted, causing chest pain but not a heart attack.
Three years ago, skin temperature went crazy and HRV dropped. The member was in New York with one of their daughters. Paxlovid was taken, which can only be taken if caught early. The member went right to Duane Reade, took the test, got Paxlovid all in the same day because Whoop detected the issue.
A fit, healthy baseball player suddenly saw elevated heart rates while sleeping that looked very abnormal. Someone with a resting heart rate of 50 beats per minute was getting a heart rate of 120, 130 while sleeping. They went to see the doctor, tests were done, and they had stage 4 Hodgkin lymphoma. They were able to get treated and recovered.
Another member had been on Whoop for close to a decade with an incredible baseline. Their HRV had been steady within a specific range and all of a sudden it plummeted. A healthy person with heart rate variability of about 100 had it drop to 50 all of a sudden for a period of time. They went in and got all tests and turned out to have testicular cancer.
HRV stands for heart rate variability. It is the amount of time between successive beats of the heart. The more variability in time between successive beats of the heart, the healthier the overall system is operating. It is a lens into the autonomic nervous system which consists of sympathetic and parasympathetic activity. Sympathetic activation means heart rate up, blood pressure up, respiration up. It happens when there is a thought like there is a lion in the room, when starting to exercise, or thinking about something stressful. Parasympathetic activity is the opposite: heart rate down, blood pressure down, respiration down. It helps fall asleep. Exhaling for a long period of time is parasympathetic.
The goal is for sympathetic activity and parasympathetic activity to be coupled, meaning the body is constantly regulating its environment. When that is the case, there is higher heart rate variability. Whoop measures heart rate variability 24/7, which was one of the key innovations in founding the company. Heart rate variability research was interesting but it could not be measured 24/7 previously. Heart rate variability is used for stress monitoring and for the recovery score. Everyone on Whoop is baselined and shown every day whether they are within their baseline, a little higher, or a little lower.
When looking at trends of heart rate variability over years, a sense is gained for whether someone is getting healthier over time or less healthy. It is a really important longevity indicator. Typically as people get older, heart rate variability drops. People in their 20s have heart rate variability between 80 and 100 on average. In the 30s, it starts to drop to 70. In the 40s, it starts dropping to 50. In the 50s and 60s, people are in the 30s and below. If the trend can be fought and heart rate variability kept even just flat over years, that is a sign of good fitness and good longevity.
One of the principles to founding Whoop was 24/7 data. This is why there is a 14-day battery life and why a charger was invented that slides onto the Whoop. The device can be worn in the shower and bath. A warm bath is great for recovery and sleep. The device never has to be taken off and the battery charger can be slid on. Three battery chargers were purchased: one kept in the desk, one on the bedside, one in the travel bag.
On average a Whoop member wears Whoop 23.6 hours a day. As a consequence, there are just over 50 billion hours of continuous physiological data, making it one of the largest health data sets in the world. With the advent of AI and what can be done with large data sets, this is an exciting time to be working in this space.
Whoop is building its own models today, foundational models within the company that are essentially training on top of this data. The company is developing its own models using open source models. There is a huge physiological data set plus other data sets where people are uploading their blood tests, doing advanced labs through Whoop, and uploading medical records. Indications are now being seen that through physiological signals, a biomarker out of range might be predicted without actually measuring the biomarker itself. Someone could be given a very targeted message that they might have high cortisol and should get one specific test.
An AI assistant was added to the product less than 6 months ago. The AI coach is a big part of the future and has been worked on for years. Conversations are ongoing and the conversations are logged. The AI has gotten more sophisticated. When told about being in Japan and that sleep was not recorded, the AI understands what is happening. Reinforcement learning is being done. The four million members are telling the AI where the product breaks down or where the opportunities are to add more features.
There was a constant struggle with changing time zones and whether sleep was getting recorded properly to get recovery scores. The AI prompted about when leaving for Japan, asked for flight information, and gave advice about sleeping the first half of the flight, not going to bed when arriving in Japan, and not having caffeine at certain times. A team was spun up on travel specifically because it is such a popular use case for members. The origins were with athletes but now there is a wide audience of aspiring people. Whoop targets the aspiring, whether that is a great athlete, someone who is fit, or someone who wants to have more energy for their family, job, life, and hobbies, and wants to live longer.
The AI coach is a big part of the future. About just over 50% of members journal every day. The Whoop Journal is essentially 100 plus different behaviors, lifestyle decisions, supplements, drugs, and other items that someone might want to log. Popular things that people log every day include whether alcohol was drunk the night before, whether they were hydrated, whether they traveled.
Whoop collects extensive anecdotal data alongside physiological metrics. Members log whether they drank alcohol, their hydration levels, travel, meditation, mood states including happiness, sadness, and stress levels. This additional context enables more sophisticated algorithms, such as predicting user happiness based on comprehensive mood tracking data.
The platform's strength lies in high engagement rates, with members opening the app eight times daily and 80% of the member base actively interacting with the AI.
The journal feature provides behavioral insights after approximately 10 logged entries, with five positive and five negative instances establishing clear patterns. The morning check-in prompts users to log behaviors, allowing the system to correlate activities with recovery scores.
Examples include warm baths showing a 7% positive impact on recovery, despite initial user reluctance. Alcohol demonstrates a significantly negative effect, with one user experiencing a 9% negative impact. Late meals within three hours of bedtime prove detrimental across the entire Whoop population due to ongoing digestion during initial sleep hours.
Users can query the AI about specific correlations, such as vitamin D showing a -3% impact, prompting the system to examine confounding factors like travel patterns. The AI provides context that results show correlation rather than causation, with recovery scores ranging 27-87% during periods without vitamin D logging.
Additional correlations include strain showing a -5% impact on recovery, while time spent in high stress zones shows a -9% effect. The stress score derives primarily from HRV measurements along with temperature and heart rate data.
The stress score represents proprietary technology combining physiological research with consumer data and effective design principles. The recovery score and health span score have become the most screenshotted pages in the app.
Positive behavioral correlations include consistent bedtime (+4%), caffeine (+4%), creatine (+4%), and morning sunlight (+3%).
The platform integrates with external apps like Slopes for skiing data, automatically categorizing activities and generating personalized training programs. Users can set goals such as injury prevention and performance improvement, with the AI creating customized exercise plans.
Long walks and rucking activities are recognized as key longevity practices, with the system incorporating this data into training recommendations.
Whoop launched a dedicated GLP tracker addressing the challenge where approximately 50% of weight loss from GLP-1 medications comes from muscle rather than fat. The system prompts users to maintain protein consumption, hydration, and strength training to preserve muscle mass.
Users on GLP-1 medications receive specific step goals (9,800 steps), weekly strength activities, hydration tracking, and protein monitoring alongside medication logging.
The platform incorporates gamification elements including badges, with users achieving top 1% rankings in activities like rucking and farmers walks. The AI coaching system asks clarifying questions to establish user preferences and create personalized plans.
Whoop maintains both wellness and medical device classifications with the FDA. The ECG feature received FDA 510K clearance, while blood pressure insights operate under wellness applications.
The company conducted a study with 70,000 members providing daily blood pressure readings to develop accurate wrist-based monitoring algorithms. This led to FDA guideline updates recognizing wellness applications for blood pressure monitoring.
Whoop emphasizes that members are not the product, with membership serving as the core offering rather than data monetization. The company does not sell user data and maintains strong privacy policies.
The platform partners with Omron for blood pressure cuff calibration while focusing on replacing traditional cuff measurements through algorithmic development.
The wearable market has consolidated significantly, with fewer competitors than existed 10 years ago. Companies like Nike, Adidas, and Under Armour previously competed in the space before exiting.
Apple Watch represents the most successful smartwatch globally, though Whoop positions itself differently through its screenless wearable approach and subscription model.
- Podcast preference: Huberman over Brian Johnson for wider audience reach
- Cold exposure: Cold showers preferred for accessibility and daily feasibility
- Heat therapy: Traditional sauna preferred over red light therapy
- Exercise priority: Weight lifting over zone two cardio for muscle mass preservation
- Alarm preference: Fixed wake time for running a tech company versus recovery-based waking during vacation
- Morning routine: Coffee consumption without 90-minute delay
- Primary metric focus: Recovery score over sleep or strain scores
LeBron James became a global ambassador after wearing Whoop for 11 years without formal relationship. He was among the first 100 people to wear the product, providing early validation for the unknown company. The ambassador roster includes Cristiano Ronaldo, Patrick Mahomes, Lewis Hamilton, and Aryna Sabalenka.
Athletes are typically not paid to use the product in early stages. The philosophy centers on ensuring genuine love for the product rather than paid endorsements, especially when the business is pre-marketing and not running large television campaigns. Because Whoop requires 24/7 wear, no amount of money could compel an athlete to wear something they don't authentically like. When the device genuinely improves sleep and recovery, athletes should naturally want to pay for it themselves.
A number of best-in-class athletes who loved the product wanted to invest in the company. These relationships later evolved into formal partnerships where the athletes' name, image, and likeness could be used for advertising. LeBron James is part of the Whoop roster through these arrangements.
NBA players are not currently allowed to wear Whoop during games. The league is still evaluating the policy, partly due to existing rules prohibiting jewelry for injury prevention reasons. The device can be worn on an armband or potentially embedded in a wrapper, and some players may have worn it on court covertly.
During the Australian Open, several tennis players were asked to remove their Whoop devices while playing. The International Tennis Federation (ITF) had already approved Whoop for match play, making the Australian Open's restriction out of line. Following this incident, other major tournaments announced that wearables would be permitted. The resistance from tournaments is viewed as a natural evolution involving safety checks, though the underlying motivation often involves marketing departments being approached for sponsorship deals.
The approach emphasizes doing year-zero work that other investors avoid. A syndicate with 4,000 members allows for syndicating early-stage seed deals, where members can participate with smaller amounts alongside larger checks. A late-stage practice was launched this year, completing deals including Zipline and Icon Homes, both billion-dollar companies. The process requires CFO approval to avoid off-the-books transactions, SPVs, and buying out early employees or investors.
Secondary market activity is complicated whether a business is failing or succeeding. The recommended approach is to build a direct relationship with the company's CFO, obtain their blessing for any transaction, and accept their decision if they decline. Going behind the company's back is discouraged. Secondary brokers frequently claim to have shares at a specific price but are often fishing to create a market rather than executing real transactions. This pattern has been observed repeatedly, including when serving on the board of a multi-billion-dollar company.
Secondary share transactions of this nature did not commonly exist 10-15 years ago. Notable early examples include Facebook and Uber, when Masayoshi Son indicated he would invest in Lyft unless he could purchase shares. In that case, 10% of shares were sold to prevent the Lyft investment. Current market conditions show companies like DoorDash, Uber, and Figma trading at low price-to-earnings ratios despite strong performance, while AI creates new investment opportunities across the sector.
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