“You Don’t Want To Know How I’d End The Iran War” - Navy SEAL
In a Nutshell
A former Navy SEAL argues that modern wars drag on because political and legal restrictions prevent the decisive, brutal tactics needed for quick victory, such as unrestricted clearing operations or even nuclear strikes against nuclear threats. He contrasts this with WWII methods and claims that without these constraints, conflicts like those in Iraq could be ended in months by Five Eyes forces. The speaker also highlights how prolonged engagements profit defense contractors and praises Trump's deterrence approach of credible unpredictability to avoid wars altogether.
These notes were generated by AI and may contain inaccuracies.
The modern world may be incompatible with the ugly realities required to win wars decisively. Anyone who served in Afghanistan or Iraq knows that victory could be achieved rapidly if the political will existed. The reluctance stems from unwillingness to witness what actual military operations entail.
If the Five Eyes nations (US, UK, Australia, Canada, New Zealand) were given six months to close out operations in Iraq, success would be 100% achievable. The constraint is not capability but permission. Clearing operations like those in Fallujah involved Marines going door-to-door and eliminating every male combatant remaining after evacuation warnings. This is the literal meaning of clearing a village.
World War II veterans did not distribute Hershey kisses. They employed flamethrowers and other now-prohibited munitions. Current Geneva Convention restrictions ban many weapons previously used, including certain mines, rounds, and other ordnance deemed cruel and unusual. Adversaries do not adhere to these rules; they employ suicide vests on children and other unrestricted tactics.
The presence of civilians potentially wearing suicide vests or holding grenades creates constant uncertainty. This erodes trust and forces operators to maintain heightened vigilance. Technological countermeasures such as see-through clothing scanners reduce some risk, but adversaries continuously adapt, including attempts to bypass TSA with smart bombs.
Operators must follow strict engagement rules while facing opponents unbound by the same constraints. The situation resembles being required to kick a ball while the opponent is permitted to pick it up and run. Prolonged conflicts generate substantial profits for defense contractors including Raytheon and Boeing through advancements in armament, ISR platforms, body armor, and medical devices.
Extended engagements sustain revenue streams for numerous companies. Rapid resolution would terminate this financial incentive. The approach of decisive, short-duration action followed by withdrawal contrasts with the pattern of drawn-out commitments.
In a hypothetical Middle Eastern country developing nuclear weapons with known materials and delivery capability, the only rapid termination method would involve nuclear strike. No other option prevents a twenty-year campaign. All relevant nations would need to agree on the necessity of such action.
Without a credible nuclear threat, operations become significantly more complex. One approach involves black operations personnel in multicam conducting a nighttime raid to extract the opposing leader from their residence. The recent successful execution of such a raid demonstrates this remains within capability.
The operation to extract a national leader from their home at night represents an extremely high-difficulty mission that few forces could execute. It is considered a unicorn raid. Personnel involved in similar operations view such missions as career-defining opportunities equivalent to a Super Bowl appearance.
During the first Trump administration, operators were spun up for a major operation but cancelled at the last moment on the ramp after a presidential phone call resolved the situation. The approach involves clear statements that action will occur if necessary, creating deterrence through demonstrated willingness rather than actual execution.
The perception that a leader might actually press the button creates deterrence value. The combination of bombastic rhetoric and apparent unpredictability may function as deliberate signaling that the threat is credible enough to avoid testing. The distinction between genuine unpredictability and calculated performance remains difficult to determine.
The first Trump term avoided more conflicts than any previous administration under which the speaker served. Many of these avoided escalations receive no public acknowledgment. The president expressed full confidence in special operations forces when authorizing the Maduro raid, treating the decision as routine.
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