Josh Shapiro on Trump, Iran War Chaos, Israel's Failure, the Economy, and 2028 Race
In a Nutshell
Pennsylvania Governor Josh Shapiro touts his pro-growth record—job creation, seven tax cuts, top-five permitting reforms with money-back guarantees, top Medicaid fraud prosecutions, and falling crime—while criticizing Trump's chaotic Iran war (undefined objectives, broken no-intervention promise, spiking gas/inflation), tariffs hiking prices, and corruption like self-dealing pardons. He condemns anti-Semitism unequivocally across parties, critiques Netanyahu's isolationist failures and Gaza approach while supporting Israel's security and two-state solution, and urges Democrats to build a big tent around education, safety, economy, freedom, housing, and skills training to win midterms as a referendum on Trump-era chaos. Shapiro withdrew from VP consideration to focus on Pennsylvania re-election, emphasizing competent governance over extremism.
These notes were generated by AI and may contain inaccuracies.
Governor Josh Shapiro of Pennsylvania has record-setting popularity (60% approval), is a moderate focused on getting stuff done (GSD), tough on crime, ranked number one on charging Medicaid fraud, pro-data center, with a nuanced take on Israel.
VHS clip: Shapiro playing basketball in 1990 wearing short shorts, shooting mid-range jumpers.
Host (Philly fan) and Shapiro (Knicks fan, mutual friend Dave, co-owner) banter about NBA collision course.
Pennsylvania is pro-growth, created more jobs than all but two states, cut taxes seven times (small businesses, families for child care, seniors, working Pennsylvanians).
Permitting process reformed: was bottom five nationally, now top five national model with money-back guarantee on permits. Issued 40 million permits, only five refunds (late permits).
Only growing economy in Northeast, unemployment below national rate for 32 months.
Focus: every kid gets great education, safe streets, job in community they love. Mantra: get done.
Start with permits critical for economic development and jobs. Provide predictability (e.g., business open in six months vs. three years).
Attitude: get to yes while protecting environment, public health, safety.
Money-back guarantee holds bureaucracy accountable. Changes via executive orders and laws passed with divided legislature (Republican Senate by two seats, Democrat House by one seat).
Proof: businesses coming, economy growing.
Example: Barber license reduced from 20 days to same day. Barber cuts 10 heads/day at $20 = $100/day; 20 days = $2,000 in barber's pocket.
Philosophically: government works for people, not itself.
Believe government can be force for good, figure out way to get to yes (e.g., support for mom with autistic kid).
Repeated frustrations (airport, driver's license, barber license) make people feel government works against them, leads to cynicism, distrust, opportunity for extremes.
Horseshoe theory: extremes take over; majority wants high-functioning society.
20-30% of tax dollars wasted (fraud, incompetence). Shapiro ahead: as AG, prosecuted PPP loan fraud during COVID.
As governor, via Office of Inspector General: require reimbursements for human services (prove work done), refer to prosecutors.
Medicaid fraud: more prosecutions than any state (or top). Zero tolerance: ensure taxpayer dollars reach intended purpose (e.g., health care).
Pennsylvania: one of lowest income taxes. No wealth tax or seizing unrealized gains on agenda.
People should pay fair share; ease burden on lowest earners.
Pro-growth tax environment helps life sciences startups survive 'valley of death'.
Cannot have economy working only for 1%; need opportunity, level playing field, fair tax system for all income levels.
Pennsylvania: first Working Pennsylvanians Tax Credit (state EITC); ~940,000 qualify for >$800 back.
Criticize Trump 2017 tax cuts: gave cuts to those who don't need it, paid for by slashing Medicaid (500,000 Pennsylvanians lose health care: 120,000 already, 320,000 next year; 26 rural hospitals to shutter).
Shifts burden to middle class via higher private insurance costs; dumb economic policy.
Host: Independent, grew up Democrat (Irish Catholic Brooklyn), votes 60/40 moderate Democrat/Republican.
Dems shellacked; Biden should have dropped out earlier; no speed-run primary (July-August) gave Shapiro, Pritzker, Buttigieg shot.
Shapiro: Wrote in book Biden seeking re-election not best for party/country; spoke to him directly. After dropout (100 days out), few opportunities for primary.
Look forward: 2025, president's party (Republicans) got beat (NJ, VA, PA Supreme Court x3).
Party needs real debate on ideas, what to fight for; messy but healthy, positions for governing.
Running for re-election to continue delivering.
Biden explicit: woman of color VP. Harris didn't pick Shapiro (Jewish) despite buzz.
Shapiro was detailed and specific in his book about the VP selection process. He was grateful to Vice President Kamala Harris for considering him and for their candid dialogue 48 hours before she picked Tim Walz. He pulled out, making clear he was not interested, preferring to serve Pennsylvania as governor, a job he loves. This was not about his faith but his own disinterest. He wanted to be considered initially, called Sunday evening after their meeting to withdraw, noting she had good options.
Assumes Shapiro will win re-election as governor easily. People see him having a good shot at president, though below national recognition. Gavin Newsom has declared his run, currently poll position. Discussion on Democratic Party dynamics post-election: right fractured with MAGA supporters now against Trump over Iran war; left has socialist movement unappealing to moderates who flipped election to Trump over Kamala. Moderates key to winning.
Shapiro urges focus on midterms as national referendum on DC chaos and corruption. People must vote concerns in record numbers. Trump injects chaos and corruption everywhere. Democrats must show calm, competent governance: grow economy, safer communities. In Pennsylvania, hired 2000 more police, invested in violence prevention; violent crime down 12%, fatal gun violence down 42%. Paint alternative to Trump's chaos, cruelty, corruption.
2026 midterms referendum on first two years of Trump's presidency, popular first nine months with good economy feelings, but tariffs chaotic, ICE situation chaotic, Iran war peak chaos in week six. Gas prices up, inflation. Democrats should highlight harms but also offer better vision.
Trump pushed tariffs: Pennsylvania coffee up 30%, beef 19%, OJ 9%, fertilizers up 36% for farmers. Hurts families, small businesses. War spiked gas to $4.15-$4.16/gallon, may stay high years. Both critique harms and propose improvements.
Top priorities if running Democrats: no purity tests, build bigger tent. Critique of Democrats shunning Joe Rogan over COVID views, Elon Musk over Obama SpaceX event then barring from White House EV summit. Republicans courted Shapiro despite only 14% agreement; he declined but notes their big tent approach.
Shapiro's priorities in swing state Pennsylvania with divided legislature: invest in public education for every child; safe communities reducing crime; pro-growth economy generating energy, jobs, opportunities especially rural/forgotten areas; freedom. Republicans turned from party of freedom: control books kids read, women's medicines/bodies, work/raising kids, rig voting rules.
Democrats can be party of education, safety, economic opportunity, freedom.
Housing and College Affordability
Add housing: young people can't afford homes, American dream scam, college overpriced. Two generations feel tricked on housing/college ROI.
Pennsylvania: proposed $1 billion fund for new/repair housing (50% pre-1950; invest in boilers, roofs, windows to keep people housed). Eliminate red tape for faster building, regulatory reform plan.
College: first executive order eliminated degree requirement for state jobs (80,000 employees; now 60% hires no degree, except doctors/lawyers). Tripled funding for vo-tech/CTE high schools, increased apprenticeships. 62% adults no college degree; invest in them. Pathways: college or trades like welding/HVAC ($100k+ in shipyards, life sciences, construction). No elitism; value military/trade/private skills.
Socialist movement (Mondami and crew) doesn't worry; need big tent, debate ideas, agree on some things. Negotiate bills: focus on 3-4 agreements out of 10, not differences. Build majorities for progress, elections.
Congress leadership pathetic: Speaker Johnson rubber-stamps Trump, abdicating constitutional checks on tariffs/war. Puts Trump over oath/Constitution; weak, gives away power. Founders in Pennsylvania designed checks assuming honorable people; now lacking, system failing.
Corruption examples: self-dealing, family enriching, lobbying at swim club for undeserved pardons (e.g., billion-dollar jet from Qataris). Reckoning coming.
Pardons abused since Clinton, Biden son, Trump ongoing (e.g., CZ crypto without knowing him). Shapiro agonizes over pardons/clemencies transparently as governor; founders assumed honorable executives. Now: sidle up, donate, get pardon.
Family enrichment: Hunter Biden investigated legally ($1M board seat corrupt). Need DOJ probes, follow evidence/law, no weaponizing against opponents. Restore norms/morality bipartisanly via ethical votes/accountability. Possible post-Trump.
Year since home firebombed by anti-Trump, anti-Semitic person. Democratic split over Israel support; Shapiro nuanced.
Anti-Semitism: outspoken against it on left/right. Call it out whether words or actions. Not accusing interviewer.
It is important to call out hatred and bigotry in any form, directed at a Jew, a Muslim, Christian, or anyone—it has no place and makes us all less safe. There should be no nuance on condemning anti-Semitism; people who are Jewish, Christian, Muslim, and others should unite on this. Some on the right and left only call it out if said by a political opponent. Respect to people like Ted Cruz who call it out within the Republican Party; similarly, call it out when it appears in the Democratic Party. It must be universally condemned.
Every Jewish American asked supports collecting hostages after the October 7th tragedy, analogous to 9/11 response. 100% disagree with Netanyahu's approach in Gaza. Many feel America is getting dragged into war with Iran, pushed by Israel.
Approach as an American focused on peace and stability in the Middle East. Long before October 7th, critical of Netanyahu for leading Israel down a dangerous, isolated path: made Israel more isolated globally, fractured bipartisan American support, put Israel in danger, and wasn't minding the shop on October 7th.
Supports two states living peacefully side by side—Israel and a Palestinian state (long way off now, cannot be led by Hamas terrorist organization; needs new structure).
War of choice; president never defined objectives, doesn't know how to get out. Recording on eve of big threat using offensive language diminishing human life—will he chicken out or follow through? America's national security not served; economically worse off.
Trump promised no Middle East interventions like a 'crazy Democrat' would do, yet started war in month 13-14 of presidency. Supporters like Megyn Kelly, Tucker Carlson, Alex Jones, comedians, podcast bros fleeing.
Broken promise among many: screwed farmers, slashed Medicaid despite promises, prices skyrocketed due to tariffs.
Shifting rationales: Rubio said Netanyahu would force hand (walked back); claimed destroyed nuclear capabilities 7-8 months ago, now say had to go in for that; then regime change—from 80-something-year-old Ayatollah to harder-line 60-something-year-old, not successful.
President never explained why in Oval Office. If you don't know why you're going in, you don't know how to get out, can't instruct military—including 13 souls who didn't return. Mourn their loss, thank military heroes working for freedom, safety, security—but they deserve commander-in-chief who defines mission.
First explanation (Israel forcing hand) may be true; America should never be led by any other nation, always prioritize U.S. interests, not be bullied.
Cannot separate if pulled into war by Israel and Netanyahu went too far—that's causing anti-Semitism, young people say they won't vote for Netanyahu supporters.
Be careful: suggesting Jews are Israel, reflect policies, support everything Israel does is oldest anti-Semitic trope of dual loyalty. Fair to vote on Trump-Netanyahu support, but not tie to Jews.
Young people at Columbia, Harvard in pro-Palestinian protests equate Israel actions with Judaism—hence outspoken on no nuance for anti-Semitism, protect nuance for Mideast policy.
Protect Israel re: Iran/Middle East; give space for peaceful protest—those differing from or supporting administration. Important to American fabric.
As governor, works daily to separate anti-Semitism condemnation from Mideast policy nuance. When blended, dangerous—crosses line. Can be super critical of Israel/Netanyahu government yet love Jewish neighbors/friends.
Personally super critical of Netanyahu government, loves Israel (spent time there, proposed to wife there, wrote book on it, idea important). Guard against blurring lines creating dangers; need education, opportunities.
Thanks for coming on All In; look forward to again, good luck with race and 76ers—see in second round. Next time wearing Sixers hoodie. Go Knicks. See courtside. Going all in.
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