Something Big Is Happening

Portfolio Decline and Market Panic00:00

Today on the Joseph Carlson show, my portfolio is going down and it's going down a lot. The reason is something big is happening, also the title of a viral post on X outlining what investors are thinking. SAS companies are being destroyed—anything that feels like software is going down. Destruction of stock prices like Intuit, Salesforce, and old guards like Adobe is immense. They're going down multiple percentage points every single day with no end in sight. Even companies that don't feel like software but have some AI exposure are declining, like financial giants S&P Global and Moody's, rocked over the past couple of weeks. These are supposed to be stodgy, boring companies that compound routinely with low volatility.

Some super investors with massive portfolios (tens of billions) have huge allocations in Moody's and S&P Global: Chris Hohn has over 20% in these two; Dev Cantasaria has a staggering 35%. What will they do as a result of this attack on their biggest holdings? The episode covers AI risks (true and false), portfolio pivots for the new paradigm shift, and big news: Bill Ackman of Pershing Square Capital released his investor presentation with a new 10% allocation to Meta.

Portfolio Performance Details02:01

Past couple of weeks have been brutal for my portfolios, which have endured COVID, tariff sell-offs, 2022 drought. Passive income portfolio down $72,000 year-to-date. In financials, only Mastercard is okay; S&P Global, Moody's sold off for AI competition fears; Intuit aggressively sold. In tech, ASML and Google hanging in; Microsoft down big from highs; Meta down a little. Safe ones: Costco near all-time highs, up ~15% YTD; Texas Roadhouse near highs—AI can't make steaks yet.