TESLA LIVE EARNINGS REPORT 2026
In a Nutshell
Tesla's Q1 2026 earnings beat low expectations (EPS 48¢ vs. 36¢ expected, revenue $22.28B), driving a 3.7% after-hours stock surge to near $400, despite stagnant car sales, declining margins, and no growth in a weak 2026 economy. The bull case hinges on Optimus robot potential (not robo-taxi, due to maintenance hassles and low margins), justifying a premium valuation 10x other Magnificent Seven stocks and Elon's $10T market cap dream, though short-term selloff risks remain amid volatility and overvaluation as a car company. Advice: Avoid trading earnings volatility (use limit orders, no leverage); long-term believers stomach swings, while value plays like UNH under $300 offer safer upside.
These notes were generated by AI and may contain inaccuracies.
Tesla reporting earnings after markets close on Wednesday, April 22nd, 12:55 p.m. in Arizona. Market expectations: 36 cents per share (terrible, lower than last year) and revenue of 22.28 billion (lower than last year). Low expectations set, but stock propped up based on projected valuations from Optimus robot and possibly robo taxi.
Confirming audio, video, no lag. Live stream posted, Instagram close friends link in description (third link).
Asking viewers: expect Tesla to skyrocket or drop? Nasdaq pushing higher after Trump announced ceasefire (after saying he wouldn't extend it). Markets irrational with weak labor market, rising inflation, average American can't afford home, yet at all-time highs. Questions thriving economy narrative. Market manipulation thriving, e.g., ending war in Iran multiple times.
Carvana lost 50% of value. LPP team noted no shares available to short. Speaker made video on it trading at $600-700, called it bullish short squeeze, uncomfortable shorting despite fundamentals.
Tesla on terrible track, not exceeding lowered expectations. Consumer spending not picking up in 2026, negative for Tesla. Oil prices up won't drive mass EV switch—no one takes loss on gas vehicle to buy Tesla (depreciates 50% off lot). Some may, but masses won't.
Tesla up 1% in extended hours post-earnings. Up 1.5%, 1.7%, 2%, 2.2%, 3%. Ended regular day up 0.28%. Beat EPS expectations by 13.9%, revenue by 0.5% (0.48 EPS). Nice surprise on revenue, EPS big win.
Stay away from trading earnings for beginners—volatile, extended hours use limit orders only, hard to get in/out.
Pulling back, Nasdaq rallies on good/bad news. Tesla pushes to $399, near $400. Company declining: car business not growing, profit margins not increasing, revenue stagnant past 3 years. Overvalued as car company.
Believes in Optimus robot as game changer—not robo taxi. SpaceX merger speculation to inflate value. People bet on Elon, okay being early. Tesla transitions from car to robotics company. Premium valuation based on dream/projection despite no revenue yet, high P/E ratio. Enough believers justify it.
Acknowledge Tesla car company overvalued/stagnant, but dream of robots projected into value. Investors have right to believe; speaker uncomfortable but respects perspectives. Two things true: overvalued now, potential later. Don't knock when down.
Tesla has strong rallies/downturns, volatile among Mag 7. Long-haul investors stomach highs/lows; avoid leverage. Suits unique investors.
Bought UNH for daughter at $280-290 ($5-10k position in her account). Money printing machine: net income $12 billion, revenue $447 billion growing. Value play when sub $300 amid US fraud investigation—upside to double (previous highs). Resistance at $360-380. Take profits on uptick if swing trade, not long-term. Morally uncomfortable for some (defense contractor), but quality long-term. Quick run-up signals red flags, possible correction. Daughter holding.
Optimus robot dream makes sense (not robo taxi). Recent entrants at $200-300s comfortable holding. Long-term holders (5-10 years) saw explosive growth but stagnant since 2021, trading prior highs, big downturns on support breaks. Tolerance for delays varies.
Criticizes valuation doesn't mean hates Elon (greatest mind, excited to meet). Owns two Teslas (Model X Plaid, Cybertruck pre-order), Roadster pre-order 7 years, taken depreciation hit. Short-term downside from slowing 2026 spending; long-term loves Optimus, would buy one.
Questions excitement: how increases Tesla value? EVs don't appreciate. Robo taxi pitch: own vehicle drives itself, generates revenue, disrupts Uber/Lyft ($20 Uber vs $5 robo taxi). Sounds great for consumers, but as owner: dirty/drunk passengers, wear/tear, charging, tires ($2-300 each), maintenance—low margins at $5 fare. Can't charge more in saturated market (undercut strategy). Not attractive vs. Optimus robot (would buy, subscription/maintenance revenue). Dream not yet produced but factored into valuation.
Like Optimus: robot does tasks, resell or subscription revenue. Cartoon dreams of future tech. Attractive for average person.
Tesla trades at a much larger premium than any of the Magnificent Seven companies, about 10 times over. Elon Musk believes Tesla can hit a $10 trillion market cap, making it the most valuable publicly traded company. This would mean nearly a 10X or a little more than 5X from current levels due to the Optimus robot. It's an attractive dream, but not there yet. In the short term, Tesla could sell off more than rally, as all indicators point to that despite current market performance.
Behind the curtain, the economy shows irrational buying. Reality is sinking in with people losing jobs, a weak labor market, high inflation, and expensive home ownership or renting. None of this encourages the market. In today's live trading session, discussion covered potential government economic stimulation, but no rate cuts are expected soon—zero to maybe one in 2026.
Comparison to 2020-2021 Rally
The post-pandemic rally in the NASDAQ was driven by stimulus checks, lowered interest rates, and cheap borrowing (rates now twice as high as in 2021). Past recessions differ due to current negative catalysts and factors like the AI boom propping up the market. Are we in an AI bubble? Time will tell.
Don't be afraid to take advantage of opportunities, but don't use leverage. If wrong without borrowed funds, it's a lesson learned. Leverage risks forced liquidation, which isn't fun.
Avis dropped from $847 to lows of $422. Happy to see worthless companies crash. Celebrating isn't wishing failure on American companies—it's rejecting manipulation driving stock prices to unearned elevated levels. Apple and Nvidia earned their valuations; Avis is an outlier that never belonged there. People were attracted to shorting it. Don't get offended—acknowledge reality instead of playing the victim card.
Tesla up 3.72%, still at a nice premium. Exceeded expectations: 13-14% surprise on EPS, less than 1% on revenue. Up 3.6% pre-earnings call. The call could be a positive catalyst or spook investors, leading to profit-taking and a drop.
Advice: Trading during earnings is challenging and risky. Stay in cash if playing safe and conservative.
Enjoyed the live session—hope it provided value. Join tomorrow's live training. Trade live every morning; click second link in description for one-time payment lifetime access. Members from 2018 still watch today after one payment. 30 minutes to 1 hour at market open, discussing market and taking trades if opportunities arise. Discount link available. Everything linked in description for platform, software, and live trading. Let's end the year on a green note.
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