The Iran War Expert: I Simulated The Iran War for 20 Years. Here’s What Happens Next
In a Nutshell
Professor Robert Pape's 20-year Iran war simulations predict a three-stage escalation trap: Stage 1 US airstrikes destroy nuclear sites but lose track of enriched uranium for 16 bombs; Stage 2 horizontal attacks on Gulf allies via drones fracture coalitions and spike global oil prices; Stage 3 limited US ground forces (e.g., 82nd Airborne) hunt dispersed material, risking backlash, regime hardening, and nuclear proliferation to proxies like Hezbollah. With 75% odds of ground deployment under Trump, driven by nuclear uncertainty and legacy pressures, Iran wins politically as the adaptive revolutionary regime outlasts US airpower, mirroring Vietnam/Afghanistan failures. Pape urges reverting to Obama's nuclear deal to freeze the program, warning of US primacy decline amid China’s rise and domestic political violence normalization.
These notes were generated by AI and may contain inaccuracies.
Professor Robert Pape has run simulations on war with Iran for 20 years, covering every strategy, and events are playing out now. The US is losing control of the situation, unsure of the location of nuclear material sufficient for 16 nuclear bombs, and has given Iran every incentive to develop them. The previous Supreme Leader opposed nuclear weapons; the new one is more aggressive. Pape has advised White House presidents for two decades, thrives in chaos, and built the Air Force curriculum for this type of war. There are three stages to the conflict, with a 75% chance Trump escalates to stage three.
Robert Pape studies military strategy, air power, international terrorism, domestic US terrorism, and political violence for 40 years. Headline: Bombs don't just hit targets, they change politics. Focus on tactical success of bombing (smart bombs hit and destroy targets 90% of the time) misses the political changes in both target and attacker nations, leading to the escalation trap starting with stage one tactical success.
Pape advised every White House from 2001 to 2024, including the first Trump administration. Post-PhD, contributed to media during the first Gulf War (all-air-power war), then built US Air Force curriculum.
Simulations run in every strategy class for 20 years, most recently in May before bombing began. Simulations cover full target sets, attack plans for facilities like Natanz, Fordow, Esfahan. B-2 stealth aircraft destroy targets 90+% of the time with low risk. Key issue: location of enriched uranium (5%, 20%, 60% levels) for bombs unknown; in May simulation, Iran had material for 16 nuclear bombs (producible over months). Material location unknown for months post-strike, potentially dispersed across Iran's vast territory. Prediction: after a year, panic leads to regime change.
US stuck in a trap of its own making, losing control. Trump tries to regain control. Loss of control began in June with strike on Natanz Fordow; satellite imagery shows trucks moving materials from nuclear areas pre-strike, likely enriched uranium (transported in large scuba tank-like containers requiring trucks). Iran planned for war, building resilience and aggressive responses. Iran winning the escalation war in stages.
Iran at 60% enrichment (90% is bomb-ready; 60% possibly sufficient depending on scientists). US dropped bunker-buster bombs via B-2s on sites. Post-strike negotiations with Iran reveal program not obliterated. Defense Intelligence Agency reports (leaked) confirm holes created, chambers possibly shaken, no eyeballs on site, no idea where enriched uranium is. Satellite photos show trucks evacuating Fordow two days pre-bombing. US attacks again in February 2026, then February 2028 targeting regime change, still not pursuing dispersed nuclear material.
Regimes not like Jenga tower (removing key node collapses it); Iranian regime is a matrix, adaptive like modern corporate structures, resilient to change—characteristic of revolutionary regimes pre-WW1. Killing Supreme Leader: adaptive system fills holes. Previous Supreme Leader issued two fatwas (religious edicts) against nuclear weapons, acting as guardrail. His son, new Supreme Leader, more aggressive, led Basij (protester suppression force), no fatwa yet, lacks full religious authority of father. Trump opposed son's ascension, noted killing Supreme Leader also eliminated 20-30 better alternatives, aiding son's rise.
Iran has 1 million in arms (comparable to US relative to population); 150-200,000 Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC)—most aggressive, well-trained, regime-dedicated; new leader prime candidate for them. Killing leader rearranges pieces, often installs harder, more resilient regime needing to lash back for credibility.
Post-Gaddafi 1986 strike: Lockerbie bombing (Pan Am Flight 103, 271 civilians killed, 190 Americans). Post-1999 Milosevic strikes: 30,000 ground forces into Kosovo, displacing 1 million civilians.
Stage 1 (June): US strikes Fordow, Natanz, other sites. Iran lashes back at Israel with missiles (3,000 hospitalized, most since 1973 War).
Stage 2 (February 2028): Horizontal escalation—mostly precision drones (some missiles) targeting Saudi Arabia, UAE coalition to break it, force expulsion of US bases/embassies (US ground-based aircraft carriers). Hits economic nodes: hotels, airports, threatening 5-10% GDP tourism. No US congressional aid seen. 500,000 US citizens in region; State Department evacuation calls. Publics oppose anti-Iran coalition due to Israeli expansion fears. Example: Sadat assassinated 1981 by own guards after Camp David Accords.
Pape's Foreign Affairs piece: Iran winning escalation war.
To search for nuclear material (e.g., around Fordow), deploy 82nd Airborne Division (5,000 troops) to control space size of LAX airport for weeks to search deeply buried sites (entrances blown). Possibly seize oil fields to cut regime funding. Trump did not deny ground deployment when asked.
Is it likely that America will put boots on the ground, American soldiers in Iran? At least 50/50 if not immediately. Escalation is not continuous; pauses occur, like between June and February, leading people to think it's over. Escalation has a ratchet effect spaced by months of apparent peace, then resumes with momentum, as seen recently.
Nuclear Material Uncertainty Driving Escalation
The key weakness in relying on air power since June is not knowing where Iran's nuclear material is located. This goes beyond regime change—it's about securing that material. Under Obama's deal, Iran removed virtually all enriched uranium, leaving only a tiny amount insufficient for a bomb, monitored by 24/7 cameras and on-site human inspections. In 2018, Trump ripped up the deal unilaterally, allowing Iran to accelerate enrichment to material for 16 bombs. Now, its location is unknown.
Stage 1: Smart bomb strikes achieve tactical success (near 100% accuracy) but strategic failure because the nuclear material remains.
Stage 2: Regime change, as bombing targets creates rubble but no resolution. Recent strikes hit targets, but options are limited—more bombing repeats the same, so shift to replacing the regime assuming the next one will surrender the material. Trump avoids declaring the war over or ongoing, unclear on purpose, but nuclear material persists, enabling 16 bombs over time.
This leads to horizontal escalation: long war with attacks on neighbors, consequences lasting months. Friends delay returning; travel like to Dubai cancels (speaker's event postponed). A single drone attack disrupts; post-9/11 air travel took two years to recover. Luxury markets like Dubai change, may take 1-2 years to rebound.
Stage 3 triggered by unknown nuclear material location. Aggressive new regime leadership emerges, guardrails removed, incentives aligned for nuclear weapon development—survival demands it amid ongoing strikes. Without Obama-era intelligence (frozen program monitoring), now only "Swiss cheese" intel reveals development signs.
Worries: nuclear weapon to Hezbollah for Haifa attack, or Houthis. Pushes ground options as retaliation nears US homeland. Realistic because ISIS (30-40,000 fighters, non-state) inspired attacks in San Bernardino, Paris. Iran, a state with 92 million people, is stronger.
Iran likely planning terrorist attacks, most probable with US ground forces presence. Example: 1996 Russia (with US help) assassinated Chechen leader Dzhokhar Dudayev in Chechnya (1 million people); successor Ibn al-Khattab launched Operation Jihad within 3 months—vicious suicide attacks, kidnappings, kicked Russian forces out despite Russia's size.
No detailed plan yet, but waves of possibilities expand as war globalizes via supply chains, oil. Iran's response to Trump's press conference: Gulf states' oil tankers pass if Americans kicked out, implied drone threat otherwise.
Strait of Hormuz and Global Oil Impact
Strait of Hormuz: key passageway for oil tankers, now avoided after one hit. Tanker crews prioritize paycheck over risk—one drone suffices. Blocking it raises global gas prices (already up), affects everyone—not just region or China. Europeans freak out over affordability.
Domestically: 4.4% unemployment, falling interest rates assume no inflation. Oil cutoff spikes inflation, hurts businesses via risk (not just damage). Russia provides targeting intelligence to Iran (like US to Ukraine), enabling precision drone hits on ships. Confirmed; Trump acknowledges symmetry (US does it to Russia), spoke to Putin pre-press conference—possibly deal to deny intel mutually. Politics drives tactics.
Since Vietnam, foes target US politically, not militarily. US wins battles but loses long wars: Vietnam (58,000 dead, no end), Afghan Taliban. Soft underbelly is politics in wars of choice, not military.
Trump on horns of dilemma, no golden offramp. Hobsonian choice:
- Cut losses now: stop bombing, withdraw carriers (to Asia/other), claim missile destruction success (unbelieved), accept modest political loss.
- Double down: weeks/months more, hoping to kill leader for better outcome. Trump thrives in chaos but risks first-order political failure pre-midterms, entering LBJ Vietnam escalation territory—rung-by-rung dominance fails, Democrats abandon (1968 election loss from slow plug-pull).
US sustains wars when attacked first (Pearl Harbor anger fueled WWII island-hopping, 22% public wanted more atomic bombs post-surrender). Wars of choice (first punch) advantage enemy politics. Iran didn't strike first in June or before.
Trump's rationale: preemption prevented Iranian nuclear weapon endangering world. But February 27 (3:15 Washington time), pre-bombing, Iran offered better-than-Obama deal (minor enrichment allowed, strong verification); Supreme Leader approved. Trump rejected as dealmaker, chose regime change instead.
Marco Rubio: US preempted because Israel about to attack Iran, which would trigger anti-US strikes, higher casualties.
"If we stood and waited for that attack to come first before we hit them, we would suffer much higher casualties... We knew that there was going to be an Israeli action. We knew that that would precipitate an attack against American forces."
Tail wagging dog: June replay—Israel killed negotiators as Trump neared deal. Israeli bombs killed Supreme Leader, replacements. US could pressure Israel (cut 3-year aid) but Trump pays political price from pro-Netanyahu MAGA base.
Trump's briefing omitted: stopping Israel's Iraq bombing? Controlling Netanyahu requires pressures, not loyalty—politics of escalation trap.
Prediction: more likely than not limited ground deployment, maybe not next 1-2 weeks.
It's more likely than not we will get to a limited ground deployment because of the fizzle, because of the enriched material that is floating around and dispersing. There could be hundreds of rooms, not much bigger than this size, maybe two or three times this size, used to fashion a Fat Man-style bomb. Not to miniaturize it for a warhead, which is more sophisticated, but a Hiroshima bomb that can kill 75,000 people in a second or 10 seconds. They don't need to miniaturize for a missile nose cone; that's very sophisticated—we couldn't do that for 10 years.
To understand behavior, consider motivations. Trump appears focused on legacy, wanting to win the Nobel Peace Prize, stop wars, and avoid the US returning in 5-10 years due to incomplete work. George W. Bush's legacy is tarnished by how the Iraq War ended, a mistake in hindsight. Mirror this to Iran's Supreme Leader: 86 years old with cancer, limited time left—does he want to be remembered as a coward or as standing up for Iran and the revolution he built his life for? In the West Wing, national security advisers and assistants worry about their legacies.
Trump can't be reelected, so legacy motivates him more than a second term. He won't want to leave a mess; the biggest embarrassment would be Iran detonating a nuclear test next September.
Discussion of Iran and nuclear bombs is not strategic—it's to scare, suggesting first bomb on Tel Aviv, second on New York. That's not the sequence. If suicidal to hit Tel Aviv, they need only one bomb; their population would be destroyed. Instead, they follow the North Korea plan from the '90s. They want multiple bombs simultaneously: first as a test in the mountains (we'd say they blew it), then a second test. Hiroshima showed we had more after the second drop. Iran uses a brown belt or black belt strategy with smart escalation.
North Korea has 60 working nuclear weapons, stopping Trump from killing the leader. Ukraine gave up nuclear weapons in the '90s; many now wish they hadn't, to avoid this war. America has nukes for security—why not Iran?
Prediction: 75-25 odds we send ground forces to get dispersed material. 25% chance if Iran magically gives it to us. In Iran now, best survival chance is fashioning a nuclear weapon—we're already killing them, pausing then resuming. Intel knows this; Israel knows. Unless Trump makes a deal, 75% path to stage three: boots on the ground.
If 75% path: deploy ground forces in limited area, e.g., Esfahan. Small footprint to hunt enriched material. But after 10 months since bombing, how know they haven't enriched more elsewhere? Like Iraq WMD in '90s-2003: inspectors in, never sure, fear worsened over time.
Fear is nuclear handoff or radiological handoff to Hezbollah or Houthis—terrorist groups. Hezbollah started in 1982 when Israel invaded southern Lebanon with 78,000 combat soldiers, 3,000 tanks/armor vehicles—like invading LA. One month later, Hezbollah born as resistance movement, hating Israel since. Israel can't eliminate them; this week trying to depopulate Beirut. Terrorist groups are in a sea of people; military efforts kill some but they regenerate, as Hezbollah has for 45 years. Push becomes to get rid of all the people.
Israel got to expelling 2 million from Gaza via stage three escalation trap. Frameworks developed teaching for Air Force to understand transition from bombing to outcome; bombs change politics in enemy and us—we don't want to lose, leading to forever wars. Trump sucked into it.
After stage three, like Vietnam or Biden in Afghanistan: pulling out ends poorly for legacy—Lyndon Johnson, Biden. Trump negotiated Taliban pullout but handed to Biden, who withdrew; Biden's polls dropped and never recovered (Afghanistan bigger hit than inflation). Trump on horns of dilemma: short-term price or double down, risking LBJ/Biden fate.
Trump knew about escalation trap from General Caine. Trump is ultimate chaos kid, thrives in chaos, navigates it better than others—beat media storms to become president twice. But applying to political violence adds players like Israel, Iran trapping him. With Venezuela, stage one only: took out one person (not even dead), no oil development, declared victory, moved on—good relationship as long as not pursuing. Maduro removed, regime kept.
Venezuela inspired Iran move superficially as political victory, but stopped at stage one. Difference: Netanyahu intel/phone call before assassinating Supreme Leader and 20 associates—Trump got ready but didn't. If another country kept assassinating Venezuela regime post-Maduro, different story.
2009 prediction: America's era as sole superpower ending. Trump's tariffs help China; they're on charm offensive, picking up pieces. Recent China trip (June, during Iran bombing): toured advanced industries—Wuhan (bigger Pittsburgh, old steel now AI/robotics hub uplifting 9 million, medicine/infrastructure boom, robotic Silicon Valley); Shenzhen, BYD electric car factories, robots in metallurgy.
US no longer superpower means enormous tension/violence in hegemonic shifts: Britain/France wars, WWI (Germany/Russia/Britain). Peaceful once: America replacing Britain. China thrilled US in Middle East quagmire—would give up 20% energy from oil (small GDP fraction) to pin US down, grow through Asia. Putin/China want prolonged war; distraction from Ukraine, no talk of it this week. Putin involved to set deal: US stops Ukraine intel if Russia stops Iran intel—advantageous for him.
Whisper Flow app: speak to technology on devices, AI cleans up (e.g., emails), learns style (casual WhatsApp, professional email), phrases like "Jack's LinkedIn" auto-copy. Growing fast.
Diary of a CEO: bundle conversation cards (guest questions) + 1% diary (habit change) for relationships/teams/companies/families.
He's trying to leverage relations in the war with Ukraine. Chinese leaders do not want to enter the fight. They see America damaging itself more than China could by shooting itself in both feet. If China intervenes, it risks helping Trump pull a rabbit out of a hat. Instead, they watch the US run out of standoff PGMs (precision-guided munitions). Secretary Hegseth acknowledged shortages but suggested using more conventional bombs. This poses a problem for defending Taiwan, which requires long-range standoff precision weapons. Everyone studying this knows that. China licks its chops at how favorable this is.
If Trump was listening, take the deal immediately. Stop everything and revert to the deal rejected just before bombing began. Goal: remove as much of Iran's 60% enriched uranium as possible from the country. Removing 20% enriched uranium would also be good but less likely. The previous Supreme Leader is gone; the new one is tougher, so Trump might accept a worse deal.
Are we just kicking the can? Iran, after watching bombs drop, realizes vulnerability without nuclear weapons—is breakout inevitable? This is the myth of 100% security, seen in many conflicts where fear of imperfect security leads to suicidal actions. A long-term problem exists, but freezing it for 20 years is a good solution. You might get lucky—e.g., the Soviet Union could collapse unexpectedly due to unrelated global changes. Big powers lose wars to small countries (e.g., US in Vietnam) by seeking perfect security. Kicking the can 20 years is better than the current situation.
Real consequences of Trump's actions: tariffs, aggressive stances on Greenland with European allies, taking out a leader in Venezuela (Western Hemisphere). This threatens America's primacy. America should be the strongest, most secure state—valuable to be the top economic and military power. But with $40 trillion in debt, pushing away trading partners, hostile actions scaring the world toward neutrality (not siding with China), primacy is at risk. China advances in the AI revolution with clusters in Wuhan, Shenzhen, Hangzhou (Alibaba), uplifting 10 million people. America needs similar efforts, e.g., in the Rust Belt, but is too distracted to China's advantage. US position as world's number one is in danger.
Upcoming book in September: Our Own Worst Enemies. Biggest danger—even greater than Iran—is normalization of political violence in the US. Last 10 years: surge in violent riots, political assassinations not seen since the 1960s. Recent Operation Midway Blitz in Chicago: militarized immigration enforcement by ICE surging into neighborhoods nearly 300 times, then expanded to Minneapolis. Trajectory shows normalization on both right and left (not moral equivalence). This makes America its own worst enemy, jeopardizing its great power status and future for families and communities—for years.
Read books on Substack or Amazon. Check The Escalation Trap on Substack. New book will discuss political violence—both abroad and at home, happening simultaneously.
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