The Iran War Expert: I Simulated The Iran War for 20 Years. Here’s What Happens Next
In a Nutshell
Professor Robert Pape's 20-year Iran war simulations predict a three-stage escalation trap: Stage 1 US airstrikes destroy nuclear sites but lose track of enriched uranium for 16 bombs; Stage 2 horizontal attacks on Gulf allies via drones fracture coalitions and spike global oil prices; Stage 3 limited US ground forces (e.g., 82nd Airborne) hunt dispersed material, risking backlash, regime hardening, and nuclear proliferation to proxies like Hezbollah. With 75% odds of ground deployment under Trump, driven by nuclear uncertainty and legacy pressures, Iran wins politically as the adaptive revolutionary regime outlasts US airpower, mirroring Vietnam/Afghanistan failures. Pape urges reverting to Obama's nuclear deal to freeze the program, warning of US primacy decline amid China’s rise and domestic political violence normalization.
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Professor Robert Pape has run simulations on war with Iran for 20 years, covering every strategy, and events are playing out now. The US is losing control of the situation, unsure of the location of nuclear material sufficient for 16 nuclear bombs, and has given Iran every incentive to develop them. The previous Supreme Leader opposed nuclear weapons; the new one is more aggressive. Pape has advised White House presidents for two decades, thrives in chaos, and built the Air Force curriculum for this type of war. There are three stages to the conflict, with a 75% chance Trump escalates to stage three.
Robert Pape studies military strategy, air power, international terrorism, domestic US terrorism, and political violence for 40 years. Headline: Bombs don't just hit targets, they change politics. Focus on tactical success of bombing (smart bombs hit and destroy targets 90% of the time) misses the political changes in both target and attacker nations, leading to the escalation trap starting with stage one tactical success.
Pape advised every White House from 2001 to 2024, including the first Trump administration. Post-PhD, contributed to media during the first Gulf War (all-air-power war), then built US Air Force curriculum.
Simulations run in every strategy class for 20 years, most recently in May before bombing began. Simulations cover full target sets, attack plans for facilities like Natanz, Fordow, Esfahan. B-2 stealth aircraft destroy targets 90+% of the time with low risk. Key issue: location of enriched uranium (5%, 20%, 60% levels) for bombs unknown; in May simulation, Iran had material for 16 nuclear bombs (producible over months). Material location unknown for months post-strike, potentially dispersed across Iran's vast territory. Prediction: after a year, panic leads to regime change.
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