ANTHROPIC IPO: Don't Buy Until You Watch This!
In a Nutshell
Anthropic filed for IPO with $4.59B revenue (1088% YoY growth) but $41.97B net loss, expecting $2T valuation despite 24% revenue from just two clients. Path to profitability remains unclear with massive spending ($7.3B compute costs) and unsustainable growth assumptions, making the valuation appear overpriced. The speaker won't buy at IPO due to lockup periods and high risk, preferring to trade momentum instead while warning of market overbought conditions and potential corrections.
These notes were generated by AI and may contain inaccuracies.
Anthropic has officially filed for its initial public offering. The numbers are based on Reuters reporting. Revenues amount to $4.59 billion, representing an annual total for 2025 rather than a quarterly figure. This represents a 1088% year-on-year increase from 2024 to 2025. All figures are prior to the release of the "S1" model and before the IPO itself.
Rumors suggest that with approximately $4.5 billion in revenue, Anthropic is expecting an IPO valuation close to $2 trillion. Rough estimates project revenue reaching approximately $100 billion in 2026.
When purchasing a company, there is a large gap between the revenue the company is making and its valuation, meaning buyers are paying a price premium. There is a big difference between trading in an IPO driven by hype and momentum, as seen with SpaceX, and actually investing in search of a good deal. The speaker does not believe a good deal will be available on something with as much anticipation as Anthropic's IPO, and thinks things could escalate even more than SpaceX's launch.
The net loss according to general accounting standards is $41.97 billion. Computing spending is $7.3 billion, or 58% of total operating expenses. Available cash is assumed to be $20.3 billion.
More information will be available once the "S1" model is officially released, prior to the public offering. The key question is whether Anthropic has a path to profitability. Annual growth of 1000% is significant, and if this rapid growth rate continues, it could potentially justify a valuation between one trillion and two trillion dollars. However, the sustainability of such strong growth and the ability to generate profits are concerns.
Many speculate that Anthropic and OpenAI started hinting at slowing down artificial intelligence development due to their need to restructure and find a way to make real profit, as they are burning through substantial capital. Despite huge revenues, these do not approach current spending rates.
Anthropic's total revenue comes from 24% of just two clients. This concentration could be concerning because if both clients withdraw, Anthropic's financial situation would be significantly impacted.
The speaker states they do not have access to short selling IPOs. They would not be interested in investing in Anthropic at the $2 trillion IPO price. However, they would consider trading it due to momentum and irrational market conditions.
The speaker does not want to buy before the IPO to avoid being tied down for 60 to 90 days, similar to what happened to other SpaceX investors. They would be open to trading the IPO because with momentum and irrational markets, anything is possible.
Regarding the MSTR position, the speaker sold short following a reversal at the peak of buying when news from Iran later proved incorrect. Trump confirmed that the Axios story claiming he offered Iran sanctions relief and access to frozen funds was false. The speaker made a profit of $4,400 on the trade and closed the position completely, not holding overnight due to high market risk.
The 30-year Treasury bond yield exceeded 5.56%, reaching levels not seen since 2003. The bond crisis continues to worsen. According to Trump, reaching an agreement before midterm elections does not seem likely. Markets are in an overbought state and testing key support ranges. If support breaks, a fall back to the 700 levels for QQQ is likely, with other markets following if the Nasdaq declines.
The speaker goes live every morning when the market opens with their LPP team. The cost is equivalent to $1.10 per day with a $2.99 overall discount. The offering provides one-time payment for lifetime access, including visibility into all successful and losing trades.
The speaker invites comments on Anthropic's IPO, asking whether viewers would consider long-term investment at the initial offering price or expect it to be similar to SpaceX with a strong surge in momentum followed by a sharp correction. Viewers are encouraged to share news via Instagram or comments for potential discussion.
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