Fiesta y nuevos máximos en los mercados: ¿qué comprar? | Cazadores de Tendencias 16/04/2026
In a Nutshell
Los mercados alcistas, impulsados por expectativas de resolución de conflictos bajo Trump y datos de inflación neutrales en EE.UU. (3.3% interanual), destacan oportunidades en **XLK**, **URA** (uranio), oro (compra fuerte hacia $7.000 por bancos centrales), emergentes (Brasil a P/E 11.9) y small caps (**Russell 2000**). En Argentina, inflación al 3.4% en marzo genera yields negativos en bonos CER (reducir exposición); Merval en dólares invita a comprar. Enfoque en diversificación (11 activos balanceados), gestión de riesgos y trades cortoplacistas optimistas para 2026, con oil por debajo de $80 clave.
These notes were generated by AI and may contain inaccuracies.
Important to understand relative strength, lack of relative strength, and divergence in the market. Market trying to advance but without certainty. Part of market believes Trump will resolve issues. Conflicts ongoing, oil at $93 problematic, needs to be below $80 for expectations to adjust. Movement in asset prices not accompanied by total market.
Base scenario optimistic, aligned with S&P implying Trump will fix issues. Trump unlikely to reach World Cup with mess due to national security risks. World Cup massive event for US. Midterm elections in November, about six months away; if Trump loses, complicated next two years. Must resolve by September/October, manage inflation expectations.
Stock market flying, market calm despite bad situation. If no resolution before elections, Trump faces challenges. Focus on portfolio setup and risk management over optimism/pessimism. In Sey Capital, agnostic strategies; buying XLK in Trun Strategy as it signals buys. Favorable risk-return being diversified. Optimistic because Trump aims for strong markets by November elections. Powell leaves Fed in May, power rebalance ahead. If AI lowers costs, enables rate cut narrative, good for 2026 financial assets.
Tail risk high, fat tail; if wrong, very wrong. Must diversify, no all-in on XLK, S&P 500. Have 11 different players, not focused.
Market reads Trump will resolve Iran issues despite difficulty. Follow data. Narrative building key, e.g., Greenland: Trump threatened but ended with status quo, claimed victory. Trump can spin bad deal as win, e.g., closing/reopening Strait of Hormuz, Iran charges $2M/ship, but celebrates opening.
Sign in to read the full notes
Get access to AI-generated notes, topic timestamps, and more.