Fiesta y nuevos máximos en los mercados: ¿qué comprar? | Cazadores de Tendencias 16/04/2026
In a Nutshell
Los mercados alcistas, impulsados por expectativas de resolución de conflictos bajo Trump y datos de inflación neutrales en EE.UU. (3.3% interanual), destacan oportunidades en **XLK**, **URA** (uranio), oro (compra fuerte hacia $7.000 por bancos centrales), emergentes (Brasil a P/E 11.9) y small caps (**Russell 2000**). En Argentina, inflación al 3.4% en marzo genera yields negativos en bonos CER (reducir exposición); Merval en dólares invita a comprar. Enfoque en diversificación (11 activos balanceados), gestión de riesgos y trades cortoplacistas optimistas para 2026, con oil por debajo de $80 clave.
These notes were generated by AI and may contain inaccuracies.
Important to understand relative strength, lack of relative strength, and divergence in the market. Market trying to advance but without certainty. Part of market believes Trump will resolve issues. Conflicts ongoing, oil at $93 problematic, needs to be below $80 for expectations to adjust. Movement in asset prices not accompanied by total market.
Base scenario optimistic, aligned with S&P implying Trump will fix issues. Trump unlikely to reach World Cup with mess due to national security risks. World Cup massive event for US. Midterm elections in November, about six months away; if Trump loses, complicated next two years. Must resolve by September/October, manage inflation expectations.
Stock market flying, market calm despite bad situation. If no resolution before elections, Trump faces challenges. Focus on portfolio setup and risk management over optimism/pessimism. In Sey Capital, agnostic strategies; buying XLK in Trun Strategy as it signals buys. Favorable risk-return being diversified. Optimistic because Trump aims for strong markets by November elections. Powell leaves Fed in May, power rebalance ahead. If AI lowers costs, enables rate cut narrative, good for 2026 financial assets.
Tail risk high, fat tail; if wrong, very wrong. Must diversify, no all-in on XLK, S&P 500. Have 11 different players, not focused.
Market reads Trump will resolve Iran issues despite difficulty. Follow data. Narrative building key, e.g., Greenland: Trump threatened but ended with status quo, claimed victory. Trump can spin bad deal as win, e.g., closing/reopening Strait of Hormuz, Iran charges $2M/ship, but celebrates opening.
Market prices necessary condition: oil calms below $80. Market sees oil issue temporary, S&P 500 says stay calm.
Similarities to last April's conflict with Trump's rates: resolvable quickly unlike pandemic. Trump steps back, market settles. Conflicts Trump sets up for maneuvering behind scenes.
Insiders in crypto buy/sell before Trump announcements, e.g., $2M Bitcoin leveraged x20. Rumors around Barron Trump. Value in 5-minute advance knowledge for fast trades.
RSP (S&P Equal Weight): each component same weight, Mag 7 ~40% in regular S&P. Finer market view: recovery, more optimistic but calmer, not uniform. Nasdaq 100 furious rebound vs softer Dow Jones, far from max. Strong Russell 2000 move, risk-on small caps. Bitcoin to ~$75k high. XLK flying, tech concentrated.
Real Estate strong rebound. XLE (energy) correction makes sense. XLP (basic consumption) stalled despite early January debasement trade (US inflation, dollar weakness). Key US economy sector. XLF (banks) rebound but at 2025 levels, far from XLK.
Divergence between sectors incipient. If optimistic, look at lagged sectors for positions; January flyers corrected, better entries.
Monthly inflation 0.9% (expected worse at 1%). Interannual 3.3% (exp 3.4%). Core monthly 0.2%, interannual below expected. US inflation data neutral, single point; watch next months, oil key. Market priced it, no addition. 10-year rate rose but stable, no panic. Dollar index correcting after refuge rebound.
If bad data, dollar would rise more, bonds fall harder. Wait and see. War/oil repercussion momentary; if oil >$90 in six months, different scenario.
Rebound concentrated in Mag 7: Google, Amazon, Meta furious; IGV (software) strong. Others like Real Estate, Russell 2000 accompanied.
Uranium ETF (URA) interesting: energy corrected but uranium moved with US stocks, not XLE (40% Exxon/Chevron, oil-focused). Uranium independent.
Cameco similar to URA, buy signal post-correction.
Disclaimer: like Formula 1 car tip, info but probabilistic. No future knowledge. Uranium small portfolio part, not all-in. Swing traders know stops.
Emerging markets P/E (forward 12mo) 12.5 vs S&P 500 >20. Was 14-15, now cheaper, attractive.
Brazil 11.9, cheapest major liquid market. Despite rise, space to 15. Short-term attractive, long-term unknown but risk-return good. Movement from 1.1b infancy.
Optimistic US, Brazil, uranium; oil should fall. No buy-and-hold; optimistic short-term 2026 but structural alarms: long bonds not refuge, US stocks high valuation.
Differentiate short-term vs strategic. Past 'thin ice' warnings followed rises. Mechanisms to capture trends in US, Brazil, gold, uranium, EM, Bitcoin.
Even skeptical, capture moves. Portfolio like football team: 11 best balanced players, not 11 strikers. Prefer uranium, rare metals forward; selective AI trade with Miguel Tomás Blas.
Gold correction from end-January healthy.
If one did not have gold, it is a good time to buy gold. A year and a half ago, with Maslatón and Miguel in a trend hunter session in Cariló, they calculated gold at 7,000 comfortably when it was around 2,000. Today marks the corner turn. The movement from 2001 to 2011-2012 shows we are more than halfway through the gold movement. It can perfectly reach $7,000 in the first instance. Trend hunters have all gold.
Reasons for Gold Strength
Central banks continue buying gold aggressively. Gold has surpassed the dollar as a reserve in central banks—today, they hold more international reserves in gold than dollars. This is paradigmatic. Fiat currencies are deteriorating due to endless printing, not just in Argentina but worldwide. Gold mines are also interesting. Metals had a necessary correction after prior movements.
March inflation was 3.4%, worse than expected. Since May last year, inflation trajectory has been increasing, becoming a problem again. EMAE data noted, but focus on market expectations.
CER Bonds Indicate Pessimistic Inflation Outlook
CER bonds (peso instruments adjusting for inflation) show significant losses this year: 20 to 27 yields negative. Negative yield means they pay below inflation. Market is very pessimistic on inflation trend. Base scenario: dollar will plunge, field dollars enter, inflation drops. This does not end the inflation problem, but adjusts expectations. CER bonds are now expensive.
Strategy: Lower exposure to CER bonds in pesos adjusting for inflation. Short-term ones beat you in May-June at -15%, -16%, -12%, -11%—super negative.
Why Negative Yields Happen
Buyers expect inflation so high that even inflation minus 10% exceeds LECAP fixed rates. Expectations are extreme and should adjust via selling CER bonds, shifting to fixed rates, lowering fixed rates or raising peso fixed-rate bonds.
Merval in dollars: Price action favors buying. Market separated—energy on one side, rest on another. IRSA very active. Bitcoin interesting to follow.
S&P 500 graph represents enthusiasm. Calm outlook on S&P 500—spectacular.
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