LIVE NOW: SPACEX IPO TRADING
In a Nutshell
SpaceX has not started trading by 11 a.m. ET despite heavy anticipation, leaving the NASDAQ to swing from red to green on speculation alone. Analysts flag a potential early pop followed by a sell-off, citing SpaceX’s sky-high $1.77 T valuation against minimal revenue and ongoing losses. Tesla and Rocket Lab are positioned as the main proxies to watch for rotation once the IPO finally lists.
These notes were generated by AI and may contain inaccuracies.
Ricky from TechBud Solutions hosts a live stream covering the anticipated SpaceX IPO on a Friday morning. Markets opened one hour prior and SpaceX has not yet begun trading. The NASDAQ is being monitored for potential movement driven by IPO hype, with speculation that money could flow into the broader market and push NASDAQ higher by 2-4%.
Tesla trades down 1.4% with discussion around whether it could serve as a proxy for SpaceX exposure. The stream originates from Hawaii at 4:45 a.m. local time.
A potential scenario discussed involves investors taking profits after the SpaceX IPO pumps, leading to a broader sell-off. A thread covering both bull case and bear case scenarios for the IPO is referenced. Expected volatility includes possible repeated trading halts due to intense buying pressure upon listing.
NASDAQ continues declining. MSTR shows strength up 3.5%. Oracle and Palantir each down 2%. Tesla trades down 1.6%. Marvel down 4.4%. Dell up 2% on a technical overbought reversal pattern. Micron down 1.4%. Rocket Lab drops 9%, interpreted as money rotating away from smaller space companies ahead of the SpaceX IPO.
Robinhood (HOOD) is discussed in context of increased trading volume from IPO activity. The view expressed is that any benefit to Robinhood would likely extend to other brokerages rather than creating a unique advantage, especially given retail trader focus versus competition with firms like Charles Schwab.
Microsoft continues facing pressure with no new developments noted. NASDAQ reverses from red into green territory with a strong recovery. MSTR extends gains to 4.5% reaching $127. Robinhood up 2.5%. Intel surges 5.2%. Tesla improves to only down 0.5%.
Traditional IPO behavior is noted: stocks often pop initially, then dump and flatten before recovering. Reminder given to beginners against using leverage, margin, or funds they cannot afford to lose on speculative assets.
Four minutes remain until 5:00 a.m. HST (11:00 a.m. EST). Speculation centers on whether SpaceX will list in the next few minutes. An Iran-related update is considered as a possible driver of the market reversal. At the one-minute mark, the stream counts down without the IPO activating.
Projected opening prices discussed include $170, $175, or $200. At a $1.77 trillion market cap, SpaceX would exceed Walmart's $956 billion valuation despite generating only a few billion dollars in revenue and currently operating at a loss while expected to reach profitability.
Tesla comparison: trades at 386 times earnings, generates $97 billion revenue with $3.9 billion net income, and revenue has remained flat over the past two to three years. Walmart generates $725 billion revenue and $23 billion net income yet carries a sub-trillion valuation. Tesla's valuation attributed to speculation, guidance, and Elon Musk's influence.
Speculation addressed that SpaceX may not open until 12:00 p.m. Eastern time. CNBC reports an anticipated opening around $165, viewed as surprisingly low given hype levels. IPOs traditionally list between 10:00 a.m. and 3:00 p.m. Eastern time. Position in SpaceX not taken. Tesla and Rocket Lab positioned as key proxies to monitor alongside NASDAQ and the IPO itself for rotation patterns post-listing.
Software referenced is Investing Pro, available via the first link in the description for fundamental company analysis at under $10 per month. At 5:08 a.m. HST, NASDAQ sits up 0.62%, Tesla down 0.55%, and SpaceX remains unlisted. Stream concludes with plan to return closer to 12:00 p.m. Eastern time.
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