Housing Market Crash Fears Rise (Homes Are NOT Selling)

Housing Prices and Mortgage Rates Context00:00

Are housing prices finally going to start dropping in 2026? If told in early 2022 that mortgage rates would go from sub 3% to 8%, then stay above 6% for three straight years, expectation was they would come down. Prices kept getting higher. According to Schiller's data, up 6% in 2023, up 4% in 2024, up nearly 2% so far in 2025.

Signs of Building Pressure in the Market00:32

Red Fin reports sellers outnumber buyers by 36.8% in October. Home builders can't move inventory even offering 4% mortgages. Wall Street Journal: number of completed but unsold new homes at levels not seen since summer of 2009. Builders geared up for big 2025 rebound, but demand didn't show; inventory climbing fast. Nearly 60% of houses sold in 2025 had at least one price cut, according to N.

Redfin Data on Seller-Buyer Imbalance01:01

November 19th article: home sellers outnumbered buyers by record 36.8% in October. Buyers dropped 1.7% to lowest level on record aside from start of pandemic. Strongest buyers markets in Texas and Florida; strongest sellers markets in tri-state area. Chart shows 36.8% figure climbing since December 2021; above black line means more sellers than buyers; positive since October 2023.

Active Buyers and Sellers Trends02:01

Blue line sellers, red line buyers: estimated number of US home buyers and sellers actively in market. Equilibrium in early 2023, then February 2024 more sellers than buyers, diverging.

Median Sale Price Changes in 50 Most Populous Metros02:30