WTF Just Happened To The Housing Market?!
In a Nutshell
The US housing market is weakening dramatically, with 47 of the top 50 cities declining, listings down from 2024 levels, sellers outnumbering buyers by 600,000+, homes taking the longest to sell in over a decade, and mortgage rates spiking amid high oil prices that inflate construction costs and crush affordability (e.g., median $398K home now requires $106K income at 6.25% rates). Pandemic boomtowns like Florida (-2.73%), Austin (-5.9%), and Colorado (-1.5%) are crashing hardest due to excess supply and slowing migration, while affordable spots like Milwaukee (+10%) gain; condos are flooding the market with 83% more listings than buyers. Forecasts predict flat-to-negative prices for 2026 (0-1% nominal growth, all real losses after inflation), no crash due to locked-in low-rate owners, but great deals via builder incentives (up to 14%)—Trump proposals like mortgage buyouts offer minimal relief; focus on locations, total costs, and long-term math over hype.
These notes were generated by AI and may contain inaccuracies.
For the first time in almost 20 years, the housing market has started to fall. 47 out of the top 50 cities are getting weaker. Listing prices are now lower than they were in 2024. Over the last few weeks, searches for "can't sell a house" and "help with mortgage" hit an all-time record high. Home sellers outnumber home buyers by more than 600,000. Mortgage rates are quickly going back up and the average home is now taking the longest time to sell in over a decade.
Discuss what's happening throughout the entire housing market, how higher interest rates are completely destroying demand across the country, where prices are headed throughout the rest of the year, and personal thoughts. This is the type of market where some of the best deals could be made if you know what to look for. Sources cited in pinned comment.
Mortgage rates are back to their highest level in 3 months. 37% of home builders are dropping their price by an average of 6%. Homes are taking the longest to sell in over a decade. Headlines often based on deals agreed weeks or months ago under different conditions. Data like home prices up 0.3% from a year ago pulled in December, doesn't account for rising mortgage rates, price cuts, and inventory piling up.
Not all markets equal. Sellers panicking in Miami (197% more sellers than buyers), Austin (124%). Opposite in Milwaukee and New York (more buyers than sellers, pushing prices higher). Home prices growing fastest where most affordable compared to incomes. Upper east coast houses around $400,000 attract more people.
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